🐻⬇️🏀

Heidelberg

Also known as: Heidelberg
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 907 (#399) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 715 (#573) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 748 (#712) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -21.0 (#360) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → -22.4 (#628) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.021 (#696) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -37.1 More → 0.005 (#565) NetEff -37.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -23.8 More → 0.060 (#584) AdjNet -23.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -24.1 More → 0.053 (#588) AdjNet -24.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 57.8 | AdjD 74.2 More → 0.184 (#604) AdjO 57.8 | AdjD 74.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 52.2 | AdjD 72.0 More → 0.143 (#689) AdjO 52.2 | AdjD 72.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.068 (#680) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.073 (#684) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 119 | GP 20 More → 660 (#551) RD 119 | GP 20

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 @ Albion L 32 - 98
2025-11-11 @ Kenyon L 71 - 79
2025-11-19 vs Wooster L 47 - 85
2025-11-22 @ Ohio Wesleyan L 48 - 86
2025-11-25 vs Bluffton L 52 - 81
2025-11-30 vs Earlham W 84 - 50
2025-12-03 @ Akron L 34 - 117
2025-12-13 @ Otterbein L 40 - 92
2025-12-17 @ Bethany (WV) L 56 - 82
2025-12-20 vs Muskingum L 0 - 0
2026-01-10 vs Marietta L 46 - 84
2026-01-14 @ Baldwin Wallace L 38 - 92
2026-01-17 @ Capital L 51 - 58
2026-01-21 @ Mount Union L 45 - 82
2026-01-24 vs Wilmington (OH) L 60 - 66
2026-01-28 @ Ohio Northern L 66 - 80
2026-01-31 @ Muskingum L 65 - 88
2026-02-07 vs Otterbein L 26 - 59

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Tori See - 18 30.3 11.5 7.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 4.8 10.6 6.0 -177 -9.3 -36.4 41.1 41.7 66.7 -4.79 47.0 42.4
Mya Jones - 18 19.4 9.9 6.9 0.4 1.2 1.1 1.9 8.2 9.4 -87 -4.6 -34.5 44.6 0.0 63.0 -0.5 49.4 44.6
Brenna Williams - 18 12.1 7.4 3.6 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.2 6.1 4.6 -66 -3.5 -53.6 47.7 0 81.1 -0.66 53.5 47.7
Malia Mizeres - 18 29.5 6.8 5.6 2.2 1.5 0.4 3.9 9.3 3.2 -151 -7.9 -34.3 20.8 18.6 70.2 0.54 32.3 26.5
Emma Crow - 6 17.0 6.5 2.2 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.8 7.7 0.7 -18 -3.0 -10.4 30.4 40.9 50.0 -2.02 40.8 40.2
Navia Smith - 2 17.6 5.5 4.0 0.5 1.0 0.0 4.5 8.0 -1.5 -20 -10.0 -16.5 25.0 0.0 60.0 -0.6 30.2 25.0
Hannah Hunt - 18 27.2 3.8 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.7 2.9 4.6 2.4 -158 -9.3 -37.4 25.3 20.6 71.4 -5.01 36.2 29.5
Mariah Bonham - 6 14.6 3.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.5 6.0 -0.7 -12 -2.4 -16.4 19.4 28.0 50.0 -1.46 30.5 29.2
Abby Tier - 10 22.9 3.7 2.1 1.9 0.6 0.0 2.1 4.0 2.2 -89 -7.4 -33.6 30.0 40.9 40.0 -0.21 41.7 41.2
Evie Burke - 11 23.3 3.5 1.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.9 4.8 -0.5 -152 -11.7 -67.2 24.5 30.8 41.7 -0.95 33.5 32.1
Olivia Nolting - 16 28.9 3.2 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.2 4.0 5.1 -1.9 -85 -5.0 -22.7 23.2 11.5 61.1 -2.89 28.9 25.0
Priya Mericle - 15 16.6 1.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 2.2 2.1 -0.3 -54 -3.6 -37.2 9.4 14.3 60.0 -4.63 23.3 10.9
Riley DaRe - 7 5.8 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 -12 -1.5 -120.0 25.0 0 50.0 0.22 30.7 25.0
Maciaha Irving - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG