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Gustavus Adolphus

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
Also known as: Gustavus Adolphus
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1062 (#116) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1139 (#94) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1148 (#56) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → +17.6 (#43) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +9.5 (#213) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.969 (#178) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +7.6 More → 0.740 (#261) NetEff +7.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +41.3 More → 0.992 (#105) AdjNet +41.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +41.0 More → 0.992 (#113) AdjNet +41.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.4 | AdjD 48.3 More → 0.900 (#122) AdjO 72.4 | AdjD 48.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 62.4 | AdjD 53.0 More → 0.702 (#121) AdjO 62.4 | AdjD 53.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.780 (#145) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.777 (#142) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 21 More → 1220 (#59) RD 98 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Wis. Lutheran L 54 - 69
2025-11-15 vs DePauw W 56 - 52
2025-11-19 vs UW-River Falls W 55 - 52
2025-11-25 @ Bethany Lutheran W 83 - 51
2025-12-03 @ Hamline W 53 - 50
2025-12-10 @ Saint Benedict L 45 - 67
2025-12-13 vs Wis.-Eau Claire L 46 - 61
2025-12-16 @ Northwestern-St. Paul W 85 - 41
2025-12-30 vs Wis.-Whitewater L 44 - 47
2026-01-10 @ St. Catherine W 53 - 40
2026-01-14 @ Concordia-M'head L 66 - 70
2026-01-17 vs Macalester W 63 - 48
2026-01-21 vs St. Scholastica W 61 - 49
2026-01-24 @ Augsburg W 79 - 50
2026-01-28 vs Hamline W 59 - 55
2026-01-31 vs Concordia-M'head L 59 - 66
2026-02-04 vs Saint Benedict W 60 - 54
2026-02-07 @ Macalester W 56 - 40

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ella Peters - 18 31.6 14.9 8.0 1.3 1.5 0.7 2.2 13.7 10.5 -16 -0.8 -4.5 43.1 32.3 75.5 2.11 50.3 47.2
Whitley Ronn - 15 26.9 8.0 4.1 2.5 2.3 1.0 2.1 9.3 6.5 14 0.8 6.0 35.0 26.1 62.5 -0.19 40.8 39.3
Kaitlyn Schaefer - 18 19.6 7.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.3 7.4 2.1 48 2.3 22.6 35.8 36.5 76.0 -0.54 49.0 45.9
Peyton Stevermer - 17 16.7 6.4 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.4 5.9 2.0 -89 -4.5 -42.5 38.6 35.0 65.4 -2.92 48.5 45.5
Anna Goodman - 18 32.1 6.3 4.4 4.7 2.5 0.2 2.3 5.2 10.7 13 0.6 3.6 34.0 28.8 85.0 2.49 50.6 42.0
Olivia Grothaus - 18 15.6 4.1 3.7 0.7 1.0 0.3 1.4 4.0 4.3 26 1.2 14.9 33.3 28.6 70.4 0.43 43.5 37.5
Bella Sutch - 18 12.8 4.0 2.9 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.0 3.4 4.1 20 1.0 13.2 47.5 0 58.3 1.38 50.3 47.5
Bella DeHaan - 18 8.9 3.7 2.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.9 3.2 3.5 -24 -1.1 -27.7 56.1 0.0 33.3 0.28 55.0 56.1
Kendyl Queensland - 18 25.8 3.6 3.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 1.4 3.8 3.1 17 0.8 5.2 33.3 11.8 72.7 0.0 40.7 34.8
Miranda Palmby - 3 2.0 2.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 2.7 - - - 50.0 100.0 100.0 - 71.7 62.5
Ellie Davis - 4 1.8 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 1.0 3.0 -1 -0.2 -32.0 100.0 0 50.0 -0.49 92.2 100.0
Lauren Queensland - 9 5.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 -0.3 -17 -1.7 -148.4 40.0 14.3 50.0 0.12 46.0 45.0
Chloe Scholl - 9 4.3 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.0 -17 -1.9 -38.2 37.5 25.0 0 -0.34 43.8 43.8
Zoe Verhasselt - 3 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Ava Westerman - 13 5.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.1 -21 -1.5 -67.0 23.5 11.1 0 -1.13 26.5 26.5
Bobbie Bruns - 11 6.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 -1 -0.1 -3.2 9.1 16.7 0 0.67 13.6 13.6
Jordyn Williams - 4 2.5 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 4 1.0 32.3 0 0 25.0 -0.43 28.4 0
Claire Woods - 3 2.9 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.3 1.0 -0.3 - - - 0.0 0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0
Addy Kath - 4 2.3 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 -14 -3.5 -196.5 0 0 0 -0.19 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG