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Green Bay

Also known as: Green Bay Phoenix, Green Bay
Program History

2026-2027 Team Stats (5 games)

75.2
PPG
66.8
Opp
+8.4
Margin
46.0%
FG%
32.6%
3P%
74.2%
FT%
34.8
RPG
15.4
APG
13.0
TO
66.6
Est. poss./game
71.7
Adj PPG
69.2
Adj Opp PPG
#141
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 957 (returning production + recruiting): last season 956, returning -4, transfers +35, freshmen -30 More โ†’ 968 (#155) Preseason prior 957 (returning production + recruiting): last season 956, returning -4, transfers +35, freshmen -30
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +206 elo More โ†’ 999 (#152) HCA +206 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +205 elo More โ†’ 1000 (#152) HCA +205 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.2 More โ†’ -0.7 (#166) HCA +2.2
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.2 More โ†’ -0.8 (#166) HCA +2.2
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More โ†’ 0.367 (#200) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -6.4 More โ†’ 0.419 (#192) AdjNet -6.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -4.6 More โ†’ 0.439 (#186) AdjNet -4.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.7 | AdjD 69.2 More โ†’ 0.526 (#141) AdjO 71.7 | AdjD 69.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.7 | AdjD 69.3 More โ†’ 0.525 (#142) AdjO 71.7 | AdjD 69.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.477 (#165) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More โ†’ 0.477 (#165) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 178 | GP 3 More โ†’ 976 (#168) RD 178 | GP 3
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More โ†’ 0.446 (#174) Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

Rank through the season

League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.

Recency Ensemble Log Adjusted Elo Points Off/Def Recency

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-02 vs Lawrence Vikings W 94 - 51
2026-11-05 @ Cincinnati Bearcats L 64 - 81
2026-11-08 @ St. Thomas Tommies W 76 - 67
2026-11-10 @ Northern Iowa Panthers L 76 - 89
2026-11-13 vs Viterbo V-Hawks W 66 - 46
2026-11-17 @ West Florida Argonauts - Preview
2026-11-20 @ Florida State Seminoles - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Orlando Lovejoy Orlando Lovejoy G 4 29.0 13.0 3.5 2.8 1.0 0.0 2.8 8.8 8.8 - - - - 62.9 0 57.1 - 63.2 62.9
Ne'quan Brown Ne'quan Brown G 4 25.5 12.0 5.0 2.0 0.8 1.0 2.8 10.0 8.0 - - - - 40.0 35.0 90.0 - 54.1 48.8
Marcus Hall Marcus Hall F 5 31.8 10.6 3.4 2.2 0.6 0.6 1.2 8.8 7.4 - - - - 34.1 34.5 86.7 - 52.4 45.5
Ahmere Carson Ahmere Carson G 5 23.0 10.0 2.8 2.4 1.4 0.4 1.8 8.8 6.4 - - - - 40.9 22.7 81.8 - 51.2 46.6
Clarence Payia Clarence Payia G 5 16.4 8.0 2.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.6 5.4 5.4 - - - - 48.1 35.3 80.0 - 63.7 59.3
Isaiah Sutherland Isaiah Sutherland F 5 17.0 5.6 3.0 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.0 6.2 - - - - 45.0 44.4 50.0 - 64.3 65.0
Christian Burnett Christian Burnett G 2 8.0 5.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 4.0 4.0 - - - - 50.0 42.9 0 - 68.8 68.8
Lebron Thomas Lebron Thomas G 5 10.6 4.2 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 3.0 4.4 - - - - 53.3 0.0 83.3 - 59.5 53.3
Maruan Cicic Maruan Cicic C 5 14.8 3.2 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.2 1.0 1.6 5.4 - - - - 75.0 0.0 57.1 - 72.2 75.0
Stewart Erhart II Stewart Erhart II G 5 7.0 2.8 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.4 - - - - 45.5 42.9 50.0 - 58.9 59.1
Keegan Van Kauwenberg Keegan Van Kauwenberg G 4 7.0 2.8 1.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.2 - - - - 50.0 42.9 0 - 68.8 68.8
Henry Gruetzmacher Henry Gruetzmacher F 2 8.0 2.5 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 - - - - 66.7 0 100.0 - 72.7 66.7
Mac Wrecke Mac Wrecke G 5 12.4 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 - - - - 40.0 0.0 80.0 - 49.2 40.0
Aidan Hadaway Aidan Hadaway F 5 6.6 1.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.0 - - - - 37.5 0.0 50.0 - 41.0 37.5
Tadej Colnaric Tadej Colnaric F 5 3.4 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 - - - - 50.0 0.0 75.0 - 60.8 50.0
Brady Fitzgerald Brady Fitzgerald G 1 7.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

285 located field-goal attempts in 5 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Carson15% Lovejoy40% Lovejoy80% Lovejoy100% Burnett50% Hall44% Sutherland40% Hall29% Erhart29% Carson24%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Carson18% Lovejoy29% Thomas50% Brown50% Payia18% Payia31% Hall23% Carson36% Hall32%
Misses: who misses most here

Orlando LovejoyAhmere CarsonMarcus HallNe'quan BrownClarence PayiaIsaiah SutherlandLebron ThomasStewart Erhart IIChristian Burnett

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 53-86 61.6 106 Ahmere Carson 15% (16 pts) Lebron Thomas 15% (16 pts) Ahmere Carson 18% (6 misses) Marcus Hall 18% (6 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 25-49 51.0 50 Orlando Lovejoy 40% (20 pts) Ahmere Carson 20% (10 pts) Orlando Lovejoy 29% (7 misses) Ne'quan Brown 25% (6 misses)
Mid-range left 5-5 100.0 10 Orlando Lovejoy 80% (8 pts) Clarence Payia 20% (2 pts) - -
Mid-range center 1-3 33.3 2 Orlando Lovejoy 100% (2 pts) - Lebron Thomas 50% (1 misses) Orlando Lovejoy 50% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 2-4 50.0 4 Christian Burnett 50% (2 pts) Tadej Colnaric 50% (2 pts) Ne'quan Brown 50% (1 misses) Stewart Erhart II 50% (1 misses)
Left corner 3 9-20 45.0 27 Marcus Hall 44% (12 pts) Isaiah Sutherland 22% (6 pts) Clarence Payia 18% (2 misses) Isaiah Sutherland 18% (2 misses)
Right corner 3 5-18 27.8 15 Isaiah Sutherland 40% (6 pts) Clarence Payia 20% (3 pts) Clarence Payia 31% (4 misses) Ahmere Carson 15% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 left 7-37 18.9 21 Marcus Hall 29% (6 pts) Ahmere Carson 14% (3 pts) Marcus Hall 23% (7 misses) Ahmere Carson 20% (6 misses)
Above-break 3 center 7-21 33.3 21 Stewart Erhart II 29% (6 pts) Christian Burnett 14% (3 pts) Ahmere Carson 36% (5 misses) Stewart Erhart II 21% (3 misses)
Above-break 3 right 17-42 40.5 51 Ahmere Carson 24% (12 pts) Marcus Hall 18% (9 pts) Marcus Hall 32% (8 misses) Ahmere Carson 16% (4 misses)