🐻⬇️🏀

Geneva

Also known as: Geneva
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 972 (#424) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 918 (#468) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 851 (#722) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -14.8 (#312) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -18.8 (#670) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.580 (#417) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -6.8 More → 0.313 (#445) AdjNet -6.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -7.0 More → 0.305 (#447) AdjNet -7.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 67.6 | AdjD 73.7 More → 0.366 (#469) AdjO 67.6 | AdjD 73.7
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 75.3 More → 0.265 (#697) AdjO 64.1 | AdjD 75.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.169 (#696) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.177 (#699) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 99 | GP 22 More → 820 (#543) RD 99 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-10 @ Robert Morris L 47 - 93
2025-11-14 vs Lancaster Bible L 62 - 88
2025-11-15 vs Carlow W 82 - 68
2025-11-18 vs Mount Aloysius W 85 - 78
2025-11-21 vs Lynchburg L 60 - 74
2025-11-22 @ SUNY Potsdam W 86 - 60
2025-11-24 @ Pitt.-Bradford L 88 - 96
2025-11-29 vs Pitt.-Greensburg L 62 - 94
2025-12-03 @ Grove City W 64 - 52
2025-12-06 vs Allegheny W 83 - 80
2025-12-29 @ Wooster L 63 - 80
2025-12-30 vs Hanover L 68 - 80
2026-01-07 vs Hiram W 72 - 63
2026-01-10 @ Wash. & Jeff. L 64 - 68
2026-01-14 @ Thiel W 63 - 61
2026-01-17 vs Waynesburg L 43 - 62
2026-01-21 @ Westminster (PA) L 58 - 74
2026-01-24 vs Bethany (WV) W 90 - 82
2026-01-28 @ Allegheny L 70 - 79
2026-01-31 vs Saint Vincent L 63 - 70
2026-02-04 vs Grove City L 67 - 73
2026-02-07 @ Franciscan L 64 - 78

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jonathan Bertovich - 22 32.3 14.5 5.1 3.5 1.0 0.4 3.2 11.5 9.7 -23 -1.1 -5.3 44.3 39.4 76.5 0.56 57.9 55.3
Trey Barker - 22 32.3 12.3 4.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.3 11.2 5.5 31 1.6 6.7 43.3 39.0 71.4 1.29 52.7 51.6
Tommy Coletti - 22 33.9 12.1 5.4 2.5 0.6 1.0 2.6 9.7 9.3 -11 -0.6 -2.2 44.6 33.3 72.8 1.41 53.5 48.6
Nick Million - 17 27.6 10.7 4.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 10.6 6.1 -47 -3.1 -12.4 37.8 31.4 60.0 -0.55 48.8 48.1
Austin Matthews - 22 22.1 7.4 5.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.5 5.7 6.8 -47 -2.4 -14.1 50.4 0 69.8 1.01 54.9 50.4
Alec Srock - 22 21.4 6.5 4.6 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.5 5.2 5.7 -4 -0.2 -1.7 47.8 0 57.1 -3.26 50.8 47.8
Ryan Edwards - 22 15.7 3.0 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.2 2.2 2.7 -44 -2.2 -18.8 37.5 42.9 79.2 -4.86 57.2 50.0
Tayt Lucas - 22 10.9 2.9 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.6 -44 -2.2 -24.7 39.3 37.2 100.0 -2.9 55.0 53.6
Elijah Brush - 12 4.2 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 1 0.1 11.2 41.7 0.0 66.7 -0.1 45.0 41.7
Stanford Webb - 8 3.5 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.2 -15 -3.0 -310.3 25.0 0.0 0 -0.48 25.0 25.0
Micah Fisher - 12 5.1 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.2 -0.1 -18 -1.6 -35.5 20.0 0.0 50.0 -1.71 22.0 20.0
Luke Lyle - 11 2.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 -4 -0.5 -23.4 0 0 100.0 -0.95 113.6 0
Chase Melat - 6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 -1.0 3 0.8 62.1 14.3 0.0 0 -0.48 14.3 14.3
Danny Lauer - 11 3.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 8 1.0 31.6 0.0 0.0 50.0 0.53 10.2 0.0
Tyler Travillion - 4 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Narku Hanson-Nortey - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Ian Snyder - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Nate Thompson - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Cooper Wilkins - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG