Frostburg St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1052 (#132) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 977 (#306) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 915 (#600) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -8.0 (#237) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -7.2 (#474) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.481 (#369) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#8) | NetEff +74.9 |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.275 (#341) | NetEff -7.8 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.522 (#398) | AdjNet +0.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.524 (#402) | AdjNet +0.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.524 (#386) | AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 70.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.350 (#577) | AdjO 65.2 | AdjD 72.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.330 (#502) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.334 (#504) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 867 (#419) | RD 147 | GP 6 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | vs | West Va. Wesleyan | L | 76 - 87 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Fairmont St. | L | 71 - 78 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Glenville St. | L | 84 - 109 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Concord | W | 80 - 69 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | West Virginia St. | L | 52 - 65 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Charleston (WV) | L | 70 - 74 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Spinelli | - | 6 | 38.9 | 20.0 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 14.5 | 12.2 | -43 | -1.9 | -6.4 | 49.4 | 48.0 | 84.6 | -0.32 | 61.0 | 56.3 |
| Jenna Muha | - | 6 | 24.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 8.8 | 12.2 | -63 | -2.9 | -15.4 | 52.8 | 66.7 | 63.2 | -0.46 | 58.7 | 56.6 |
| Ayla Hileman | - | 6 | 26.3 | 11.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 51 | 2.7 | 17.6 | 43.9 | 50.0 | 71.4 | 1.12 | 58.3 | 57.0 |
| Sophie Nichols | - | 6 | 23.5 | 11.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 10.3 | 4.0 | -31 | -1.6 | -7.3 | 32.3 | 28.9 | 94.4 | -3.08 | 48.6 | 41.1 |
| Zaria Gaskins | - | 6 | 21.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 5.3 | -5 | -0.2 | -1.4 | 36.8 | 40.0 | 83.3 | 0.76 | 53.5 | 42.1 |
| Ella Sabatos | - | 6 | 13.9 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 25 | 1.1 | 9.4 | 58.8 | 0 | 60.0 | 0.89 | 59.9 | 58.8 |
| Laekyn Flinn | - | 6 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 0.3 | -8 | -0.4 | -3.4 | 37.5 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.7 | 39.6 | 39.6 |
| Mandy Roman | - | 6 | 15.0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | -60 | -2.7 | -20.1 | 31.2 | 0.0 | 87.5 | -3.68 | 43.5 | 31.2 |
| Caitlyn Sullivan | - | 3 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.7 | -39 | -2.8 | -86.3 | 33.3 | 0 | 66.7 | -1.09 | 46.3 | 33.3 |
| Riley Nelson | - | 6 | 14.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | -11 | -0.3 | -2.4 | 50.0 | 0 | 50.0 | 1.52 | 50.9 | 50.0 |
| Sydney Snyder | - | 5 | 8.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | -0.4 | -44 | -2.3 | -30.0 | 20.0 | 25.0 | 0 | -2.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Raegan Ogle | - | 3 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.08 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Karlee Hawkins | - | 2 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -12 | -2.0 | -152.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG