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Fresno State

Season: 2026-2027 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018
Also known as: Fresno State Bulldogs
Program History
Coach: Ryan McCarthy

2026-2027 Team Stats (3 games)

74.7
PPG
53.7
Opp
+21.0
Margin
43.3%
FG%
30.1%
3P%
71.9%
FT%
37.3
RPG
10.0
APG
14.3
TO
69.7
Est. poss./game
63.3
Adj PPG
61.2
Adj Opp PPG
#186
Scoring Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 893 (returning production + recruiting): last season 953, returning -85, transfers +25, freshmen +0 More → 929 (#210) Preseason prior 893 (returning production + recruiting): last season 953, returning -85, transfers +25, freshmen +0
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +185 elo More → 928 (#230) HCA +185 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +185 elo More → 965 (#221) HCA +185 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → -1.4 (#173) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More → -1.2 (#172) HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.353 (#185) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +4.3 More → 0.462 (#174) AdjNet +4.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +4.2 More → 0.460 (#175) AdjNet +4.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 61.2 More → 0.448 (#186) AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 61.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 61.2 More → 0.472 (#179) AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 61.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.445 (#179) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.450 (#178) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 195 | GP 2 More → 924 (#226) RD 195 | GP 2
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More → 0.353 (#213) Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-11-04 vs UC Merced Bobcats W 94 - 32
2026-11-07 @ Colorado Buffaloes L 56 - 73
2026-11-11 vs New Mexico Lobos W 74 - 56
2026-11-14 vs Northern Arizona Lumberjacks - Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Mekhia Chase Mekhia Chase G 3 26.0 15.0 5.0 2.3 4.3 0.3 1.3 10.7 15.0 41 3 13.7 20.8 53.1 46.2 71.4 2.27 64.1 62.5
Lola Donez Lola Donez G 3 25.3 9.7 3.7 0.7 2.7 0.0 0.3 8.7 7.7 42 3 14.0 22.6 42.3 25.0 100.0 0.74 52.2 48.1
Rubi Gray Rubi Gray G 3 19.7 9.7 4.3 0.7 1.7 0.0 2.7 9.7 4.0 28 3 9.3 19.1 34.5 31.8 100.0 -0.37 48.5 46.6
Ava Marr Ava Marr G 3 23.7 9.7 2.0 1.0 2.3 0.3 0.7 9.3 5.3 25 3 8.3 14.3 39.3 31.8 0 0.87 51.8 51.8
Jada Hunter Jada Hunter G 3 26.7 8.7 3.3 2.7 3.3 0.3 2.3 8.7 7.3 28 3 9.3 14.5 46.2 0.0 50.0 0.22 46.8 46.2
Zawadi Ogot Zawadi Ogot G 3 24.0 8.3 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.7 1.7 5.0 6.7 44 3 14.7 25.1 73.3 0 75.0 0.03 74.6 73.3
Ashlyn Rean Ashlyn Rean F 3 23.0 8.0 7.3 1.0 1.0 1.7 1.3 10.0 7.7 28 3 9.3 16.2 33.3 0.0 66.7 -2.21 36.8 33.3
Ivy Brown Ivy Brown F 3 19.3 4.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 2.7 2.3 43 3 14.3 30.1 62.5 100.0 66.7 2.49 69.7 68.8
Sienna Clark Sienna Clark G 3 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 12 3 4.0 65.6 50.0 50.0 0 0.29 75.0 75.0
Kenzie Sirowich Kenzie Sirowich F 3 4.3 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.7 1.3 -0.3 -2 3 -0.7 -5.8 0.0 0.0 50.0 -0.4 10.2 0.0
Mylaena Norton Mylaena Norton G 1 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 -4.0 6 1 6.0 43.9 0.0 0.0 0 -0.38 0.0 0.0
Ryleigh Schoonover Ryleigh Schoonover F 2 4.5 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.5 8 2 4.0 36.9 0 0 0 -0.48 0 0
Latisha Wilson Latisha Wilson F 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ella Barmentloo Ella Barmentloo F 1 3.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2 1 2.0 29.8 0 0 0 -0.84 0 0
Briana Webb Briana Webb G 0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

203 located field-goal attempts in 3 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Chase29% Rean25% Donez43% Hunter75% Marr33% Marr100% Gray100% Marr22% Chase100% Gray36%
Points: who the team's points here most likely come from
Rean38% Rean38% Donez30% Chase50% Hunter67% Gray33% Gray40% Gray33% Chase33% Marr35%
Misses: who misses most here

Mekhia ChaseAva MarrRubi GrayLola DonezJada HunterAshlyn Rean

Zone FGM-FGA FG% Pts Top scorer Runner-up Most misses Runner-up
Restricted area 21-29 72.4 42 Mekhia Chase 29% (12 pts) Zawadi Ogot 19% (8 pts) Ashlyn Rean 38% (3 misses) Kenzie Sirowich 25% (2 misses)
Paint (non-RA) 28-57 49.1 56 Ashlyn Rean 25% (14 pts) Zawadi Ogot 21% (12 pts) Ashlyn Rean 38% (11 misses) Jada Hunter 10% (3 misses)
Mid-range left 7-17 41.2 14 Lola Donez 43% (6 pts) Jada Hunter 29% (4 pts) Lola Donez 30% (3 misses) Jada Hunter 20% (2 misses)
Mid-range center 4-8 50.0 8 Jada Hunter 75% (6 pts) Lola Donez 25% (2 pts) Mekhia Chase 50% (2 misses) Jada Hunter 25% (1 misses)
Mid-range right 3-9 33.3 6 Ava Marr 33% (2 pts) Lola Donez 33% (2 pts) Jada Hunter 67% (4 misses) Ashlyn Rean 17% (1 misses)
Left corner 3 2-8 25.0 6 Ava Marr 100% (6 pts) - Rubi Gray 33% (2 misses) Ava Marr 17% (1 misses)
Right corner 3 1-6 16.7 3 Rubi Gray 100% (3 pts) - Rubi Gray 40% (2 misses) Ava Marr 20% (1 misses)
Above-break 3 left 9-30 30.0 27 Ava Marr 22% (6 pts) Mekhia Chase 22% (6 pts) Rubi Gray 33% (7 misses) Ava Marr 29% (6 misses)
Above-break 3 center 2-8 25.0 6 Mekhia Chase 100% (6 pts) - Mekhia Chase 33% (2 misses) Rubi Gray 33% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 right 11-31 35.5 33 Rubi Gray 36% (12 pts) Ava Marr 27% (9 pts) Ava Marr 35% (7 misses) Lola Donez 20% (4 misses)