Fresno State
Model Outputs
2002-2003
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1135 (#83) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1154 (#58) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1054 (#92) | HCA +112 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +5.1 (#91) | HCA +3.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +5.7 (#84) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.692 (#62) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.719 (#94) | AdjNet +8.2 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.721 (#94) | AdjNet +8.2 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.606 (#93) | AdjO 69.5 | AdjD 64.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.578 (#89) | AdjO 70.6 | AdjD 67.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.652 (#79) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.646 (#79) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1123 (#77) | RD 151 | GP 28 |
2003 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002-11-29 | vs | Idaho State | W | 65 - 53 |
| 2002-11-30 | vs | Saint Mary's | W | 67 - 65 |
| 2002-12-04 | vs | Santa Clara | W | 70 - 55 |
| 2002-12-07 | @ | San Francisco | W | 74 - 71 |
| 2002-12-11 | vs | Pacific | W | 80 - 60 |
| 2002-12-15 | @ | Oklahoma State | L | 61 - 71 |
| 2002-12-20 | vs | Centenary (LA) | W | 70 - 69 |
| 2002-12-23 | @ | Washington State | L | 66 - 69 |
| 2002-12-29 | vs | Sacramento State | W | 91 - 53 |
| 2003-01-01 | vs | Tulsa | W | 74 - 65 |
| 2003-01-04 | vs | Rice | W | 71 - 70 |
| 2003-01-09 | vs | Boise State | W | 61 - 54 |
| 2003-01-11 | vs | UTEP | W | 84 - 58 |
| 2003-01-13 | @ | Hawaii | L | 77 - 88 |
| 2003-01-16 | @ | Southern Methodist | W | 75 - 73 |
| 2003-01-18 | @ | Louisiana Tech | W | 61 - 60 |
| 2003-01-23 | vs | Hawaii | W | 56 - 55 |
| 2003-01-25 | vs | San Jose State | W | 59 - 48 |
| 2003-02-01 | @ | Nevada | L | 79 - 92 |
| 2003-02-06 | @ | UTEP | W | 76 - 63 |
| 2003-02-08 | @ | Boise State | W | 59 - 52 |
| 2003-02-13 | vs | Louisiana Tech | L | 77 - 80 |
| 2003-02-15 | vs | Southern Methodist | W | 76 - 56 |
| 2003-02-19 | @ | San Jose State | W | 74 - 70 |
| 2003-02-22 | @ | Creighton | L | 66 - 67 |
| 2003-03-01 | vs | Nevada | W | 107 - 99 |
| 2003-03-05 | @ | Tulsa | L | 59 - 62 |
| 2003-03-08 | @ | Rice | L | 71 - 92 |
2003 Roster
No roster data available for this season.