Fresno St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1052 (#163) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 996 (#305) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +19.4 (#61) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.981 (#80) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.955 (#72) | AdjNet +26.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.959 (#70) | AdjNet +26.7 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.855 (#75) | AdjO 85.0 | AdjD 65.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.597 (#153) | AdjO 77.2 | AdjD 72.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.824 (#48) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.786 (#69) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | vs | Fresno Pacific | W | 88 - 51 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Heidbreder | - | 1 | 30.4 | 19.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 | - | - | - | 58.3 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 69.0 | 70.8 |
| DeShawn Gory | - | 1 | 18.9 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 75.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 71.7 | 75.0 |
| Jac Mani | - | 1 | 14.8 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 71.4 | 50.0 | 50.0 | - | 76.1 | 78.6 |
| Zaon Collins | - | 1 | 24.5 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 58.0 | 50.0 |
| Cameron Faas | - | 1 | 17.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 60.0 | 33.3 | 100.0 | - | 76.5 | 70.0 |
| Bastien Rieber | - | 1 | 15.6 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 73.5 | 66.7 |
| Wilson Jacques | - | 1 | 19.8 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 66.7 | - | 56.4 | 50.0 |
| Gasper Kocevar | - | 1 | 15.4 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | - | - | - | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 75.0 | 75.0 |
| DJ Stickman | - | 1 | 16.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 66.7 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Matteo Porto | - | 1 | 9.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | -3.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | - | 19.2 | 0.0 |
| Makhan Diouf | - | 1 | 17.2 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 24 | 1.2 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 2.32 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG