Fresno Pacific
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 954 (#402) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 894 (#440) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 887 (#628) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +0.4 (#169) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -11.8 (#536) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.368 (#416) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.166 (#376) | NetEff -11.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.544 (#388) | AdjNet +1.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.548 (#392) | AdjNet +1.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.522 (#387) | AdjO 62.1 | AdjD 61.1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.299 (#613) | AdjO 57.6 | AdjD 66.9 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.239 (#573) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.245 (#573) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 858 (#421) | RD 95 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-03 | @ | Fresno St. | L | 38 - 87 |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | UC Merced | L | 61 - 73 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Chico St. | L | 54 - 71 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | CSUSB | W | 60 - 45 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | San Fran. St. | W | 72 - 59 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | Stanislaus St. | W | 68 - 49 |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Biola | L | 73 - 79 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Point Loma | L | 56 - 67 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Vanguard | L | 44 - 72 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Hawaii Pacific | W | 62 - 53 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Westmont | L | 49 - 62 |
| 2026-01-13 | vs | Azusa Pacific | L | 65 - 88 |
| 2026-01-15 | vs | CUI | L | 67 - 80 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Westmont | L | 46 - 64 |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Jessup | W | 78 - 62 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Menlo | L | 59 - 80 |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Biola | L | 50 - 73 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Point Loma | W | 68 - 65 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Jessup | L | 57 - 63 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Dominican (CA) | L | 61 - 71 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sienna Evans | - | 19 | 22.9 | 14.1 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 13.3 | 5.2 | -33 | -1.7 | -10.6 | 34.8 | 29.3 | 70.0 | 2.62 | 46.5 | 41.9 |
| Angela Whitfield | - | 18 | 28.7 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 8.9 | 10.0 | -44 | -2.3 | -10.1 | 35.6 | 32.3 | 80.0 | 3.84 | 49.1 | 45.6 |
| Nina Wisniewski | - | 19 | 22.1 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 2.3 | -43 | -2.1 | -13.8 | 32.3 | 22.6 | 74.0 | -1.83 | 44.7 | 36.1 |
| Trinity Tolbert | - | 15 | 16.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.8 | 40.0 | 80.4 | 1.15 | 51.5 | 40.5 |
| Kira Wilmurt | - | 20 | 22.1 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | -91 | -4.3 | -28.7 | 34.7 | 23.1 | 80.0 | -4.3 | 47.3 | 40.6 |
| Alexa Perryman | - | 20 | 16.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | -103 | -5.2 | -36.4 | 25.2 | 24.5 | 70.5 | -1.1 | 38.4 | 30.8 |
| Ashley Aughterson | - | 20 | 16.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 1.8 | -13 | -0.7 | -6.6 | 41.9 | 0.0 | 57.1 | 0.9 | 44.0 | 41.9 |
| Mason Long | - | 20 | 14.8 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 5.3 | 0.1 | -34 | -1.7 | -17.4 | 19.8 | 20.0 | 0.0 | -3.08 | 26.7 | 26.9 |
| Aaliyah Seuell | - | 18 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | -38 | -1.8 | -42.0 | 25.4 | 25.6 | 58.3 | -0.54 | 36.6 | 33.9 |
| Remni White | - | 18 | 11.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.2 | -32 | -1.7 | -21.4 | 41.2 | 55.6 | 69.2 | 0.59 | 61.6 | 55.9 |
| Grace Brown | - | 19 | 10.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -84 | -4.4 | -64.3 | 38.5 | 0.0 | 63.6 | -5.04 | 43.8 | 38.5 |
| Kate Evans | - | 18 | 8.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 27 | 1.6 | 24.3 | 47.1 | 0 | 47.4 | -0.62 | 49.3 | 47.1 |
| Jordyn Ybarra | - | 19 | 13.9 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.2 | -64 | -3.4 | -30.6 | 24.1 | 0.0 | 76.9 | -2.78 | 34.6 | 24.1 |
| Viktoria Trailovic | - | 14 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.6 | -9 | -0.6 | -13.2 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 83.3 | -0.28 | 42.3 | 25.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG