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Fort Valley St.

Also known as: Fort Valley St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1174 (#12) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 955 (#331) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1057 (#121) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → -0.2 (#234) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +1.5 (#303) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.320 (#432) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +49.3 More → 0.997 (#57) NetEff +49.3
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -6.1 More → 0.331 (#492) AdjNet -6.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -6.0 More → 0.331 (#493) AdjNet -6.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.1 | AdjD 76.5 More → 0.402 (#488) AdjO 72.1 | AdjD 76.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 75.2 | AdjD 74.2 More → 0.523 (#259) AdjO 75.2 | AdjD 74.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.497 (#317) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.516 (#298) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 95 | GP 22 More → 1029 (#195) RD 95 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-13 @ Georgia St. L 56 - 90
2025-11-15 vs Rollins W 76 - 74
2025-11-17 @ Central St. (OH) L 74 - 90
2025-11-20 @ Tuskegee L 89 - 91
2025-11-22 @ Miles L 60 - 72
2025-11-25 @ Kentucky St. L 86 - 97
2025-12-04 @ Spring Hill W 87 - 71
2025-12-17 vs Lane W 83 - 81
2025-12-19 vs LeMoyne-Owen W 72 - 59
2026-01-03 vs Allen W 80 - 73
2026-01-05 vs Benedict W 60 - 54
2026-01-08 @ Savannah St. W 79 - 78
2026-01-10 @ Edward Waters L 82 - 83
2026-01-14 @ Morehouse L 58 - 68
2026-01-19 vs Clark Atlanta L 59 - 63
2026-01-22 vs Tuskegee W 70 - 67
2026-01-23 vs Miles L 81 - 84
2026-01-27 vs Albany St. (GA) W 77 - 73
2026-01-29 vs Spring Hill W 101 - 61
2026-01-31 @ Albany St. (GA) L 78 - 80
2026-02-05 vs Kentucky St. W 86 - 68
2026-02-07 vs Central St. (OH) W 70 - 68

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Aidan Lambert - 19 34.8 17.4 5.9 2.1 1.3 0.1 2.5 14.6 9.6 80 4.4 15.9 48.0 31.7 63.0 2.42 53.5 51.4
Danny Delgardo III - 22 36.2 16.2 4.2 2.6 1.2 0.2 2.0 12.1 10.3 72 3.4 14.2 39.8 37.0 73.3 1.4 57.3 53.0
Jaylen Jackson - 8 19.2 10.2 2.5 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.2 8.5 4.5 -16 -3.2 -15.3 42.6 8.3 67.6 -1.11 49.4 43.4
CJ Williams - 20 25.0 9.8 4.8 1.1 1.1 0.6 1.4 7.5 8.4 93 4.9 24.9 38.3 35.9 90.6 2.43 56.6 49.3
Derek Delgardo Jr - 22 29.9 8.8 3.9 2.9 1.7 0.2 2.2 7.4 7.8 - - - 40.7 37.0 80.4 - 52.3 46.9
Meka Nnaji - 17 14.4 6.3 3.8 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 5.5 5.4 -8 -0.5 -5.0 40.9 20.0 56.0 -0.29 46.5 42.5
Jahlen Jack - 19 22.4 6.0 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 1.6 5.6 4.5 90 5.3 43.1 38.7 44.1 63.0 1.06 48.4 45.8
Sincere Whitehead - 21 17.6 5.8 5.6 0.2 0.4 1.2 0.8 4.4 8.0 67 3.4 26.9 48.4 0.0 72.7 -0.57 54.3 48.4
Khirius Doucet - 11 14.4 5.1 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.3 1.5 4.2 4.0 -43 -7.2 -61.8 26.1 0.0 76.2 -0.36 43.4 26.1
Mike Robinson - 4 17.7 3.5 2.0 2.0 1.2 0.2 1.5 3.5 4.0 - - - 21.4 20.0 63.6 - 37.2 25.0
Tyler Pendergrass - 19 8.2 1.9 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 1.6 2.0 23 1.3 18.3 40.0 39.1 60.0 1.24 55.9 55.0
Demetrius Paul Jr. - 20 6.7 1.6 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.2 26 2.0 28.4 58.3 100.0 37.5 1.74 60.0 62.5
Jovan Tucker - 13 5.0 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.5 -18 -1.1 -39.7 31.6 12.5 60.0 -1.59 37.7 34.2
DeAndre Newland - 9 6.6 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.4 -9 -1.1 -35.7 75.0 100.0 40.0 -0.4 72.6 87.5
Josiah Lawson - 1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43 2.7 19.7 0 0 0 -1.65 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG