Fort Valley St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1174 (#12) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 955 (#331) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1057 (#121) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.2 (#234) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +1.5 (#303) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.320 (#432) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.997 (#57) | NetEff +49.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.331 (#492) | AdjNet -6.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.331 (#493) | AdjNet -6.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.402 (#488) | AdjO 72.1 | AdjD 76.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.523 (#259) | AdjO 75.2 | AdjD 74.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.497 (#317) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.516 (#298) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1029 (#195) | RD 95 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | @ | Georgia St. | L | 56 - 90 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Rollins | W | 76 - 74 |
| 2025-11-17 | @ | Central St. (OH) | L | 74 - 90 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Tuskegee | L | 89 - 91 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | Miles | L | 60 - 72 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Kentucky St. | L | 86 - 97 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Spring Hill | W | 87 - 71 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Lane | W | 83 - 81 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | LeMoyne-Owen | W | 72 - 59 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Allen | W | 80 - 73 |
| 2026-01-05 | vs | Benedict | W | 60 - 54 |
| 2026-01-08 | @ | Savannah St. | W | 79 - 78 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Edward Waters | L | 82 - 83 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Morehouse | L | 58 - 68 |
| 2026-01-19 | vs | Clark Atlanta | L | 59 - 63 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Tuskegee | W | 70 - 67 |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Miles | L | 81 - 84 |
| 2026-01-27 | vs | Albany St. (GA) | W | 77 - 73 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Spring Hill | W | 101 - 61 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Albany St. (GA) | L | 78 - 80 |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Kentucky St. | W | 86 - 68 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Central St. (OH) | W | 70 - 68 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Lambert | - | 19 | 34.8 | 17.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 2.5 | 14.6 | 9.6 | 80 | 4.4 | 15.9 | 48.0 | 31.7 | 63.0 | 2.42 | 53.5 | 51.4 |
| Danny Delgardo III | - | 22 | 36.2 | 16.2 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 72 | 3.4 | 14.2 | 39.8 | 37.0 | 73.3 | 1.4 | 57.3 | 53.0 |
| Jaylen Jackson | - | 8 | 19.2 | 10.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 8.5 | 4.5 | -16 | -3.2 | -15.3 | 42.6 | 8.3 | 67.6 | -1.11 | 49.4 | 43.4 |
| CJ Williams | - | 20 | 25.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 93 | 4.9 | 24.9 | 38.3 | 35.9 | 90.6 | 2.43 | 56.6 | 49.3 |
| Derek Delgardo Jr | - | 22 | 29.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | - | - | - | 40.7 | 37.0 | 80.4 | - | 52.3 | 46.9 |
| Meka Nnaji | - | 17 | 14.4 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 5.4 | -8 | -0.5 | -5.0 | 40.9 | 20.0 | 56.0 | -0.29 | 46.5 | 42.5 |
| Jahlen Jack | - | 19 | 22.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 90 | 5.3 | 43.1 | 38.7 | 44.1 | 63.0 | 1.06 | 48.4 | 45.8 |
| Sincere Whitehead | - | 21 | 17.6 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 67 | 3.4 | 26.9 | 48.4 | 0.0 | 72.7 | -0.57 | 54.3 | 48.4 |
| Khirius Doucet | - | 11 | 14.4 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 4.2 | 4.0 | -43 | -7.2 | -61.8 | 26.1 | 0.0 | 76.2 | -0.36 | 43.4 | 26.1 |
| Mike Robinson | - | 4 | 17.7 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | - | - | - | 21.4 | 20.0 | 63.6 | - | 37.2 | 25.0 |
| Tyler Pendergrass | - | 19 | 8.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 23 | 1.3 | 18.3 | 40.0 | 39.1 | 60.0 | 1.24 | 55.9 | 55.0 |
| Demetrius Paul Jr. | - | 20 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 26 | 2.0 | 28.4 | 58.3 | 100.0 | 37.5 | 1.74 | 60.0 | 62.5 |
| Jovan Tucker | - | 13 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | -18 | -1.1 | -39.7 | 31.6 | 12.5 | 60.0 | -1.59 | 37.7 | 34.2 |
| DeAndre Newland | - | 9 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.4 | -9 | -1.1 | -35.7 | 75.0 | 100.0 | 40.0 | -0.4 | 72.6 | 87.5 |
| Josiah Lawson | - | 1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43 | 2.7 | 19.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.65 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG