Fort Lewis
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1112 (#39) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1188 (#45) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1107 (#70) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +10.5 (#97) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +8.3 (#184) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.778 (#169) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.921 (#183) | NetEff +22.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.875 (#166) | AdjNet +16.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.879 (#165) | AdjNet +17.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.768 (#155) | AdjO 85.5 | AdjD 72.3 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.635 (#115) | AdjO 81.5 | AdjD 75.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.677 (#164) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.681 (#146) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1146 (#81) | RD 104 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Eastern N.M. | W | 76 - 73 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Western N.M. | W | 85 - 82 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Western N.M. | L | 86 - 95 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Lubbock Christian | L | 76 - 94 |
| 2025-11-28 | vs | Angelo St. | L | 77 - 78 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | West Tex. A&M | L | 84 - 105 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | MSU Denver | W | 81 - 76 |
| 2025-12-09 | vs | N.M. Highlands | W | 88 - 80 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Adams St. | W | 94 - 85 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | St. Edward's | L | 61 - 87 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | St. Mary's (TX) | W | 81 - 68 |
| 2026-01-08 | vs | Western Colo. | W | 89 - 63 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Westminster (UT) | W | 87 - 77 |
| 2026-01-15 | @ | South Dakota Mines | W | 86 - 81 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Black Hills St. | W | 78 - 76 |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Colo. Christian | W | 73 - 56 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | UCCS | W | 90 - 84 |
| 2026-01-29 | vs | Colo. Sch. of Mines | W | 78 - 70 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | MSU Denver | W | 101 - 72 |
| 2026-02-05 | @ | Adams St. | L | 93 - 95 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | N.M. Highlands | L | 88 - 93 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Erhart | - | 19 | 28.5 | 17.5 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 46 | 2.4 | 12.5 | 41.4 | 36.4 | 84.9 | 1.29 | 54.0 | 45.3 |
| Jaxon Smith | - | 21 | 31.6 | 15.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 98 | 4.9 | 25.3 | 38.4 | 38.2 | 93.9 | 4.05 | 58.8 | 51.3 |
| Chuol Deng | - | 21 | 29.9 | 13.6 | 8.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 11.7 | 10.6 | 18 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 39.8 | 29.3 | 73.3 | -1.17 | 50.4 | 45.3 |
| Yorgio Golesis | - | 12 | 25.5 | 8.2 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 4 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 38.2 | 10.0 | 84.4 | -0.91 | 51.1 | 39.5 |
| Donald Bangham, Jr. | - | 20 | 17.3 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 26 | 2.0 | 28.4 | 45.4 | 26.9 | 58.0 | 1.74 | 53.0 | 50.8 |
| Massal Diouf | - | 21 | 16.4 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 24 | 1.2 | 10.6 | 56.2 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 2.32 | 58.2 | 56.2 |
| Keither Florence | - | 21 | 17.4 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 39 | 1.9 | 17.6 | 54.2 | 0.0 | 57.1 | -0.86 | 55.9 | 54.2 |
| Daniel Steverson | - | 10 | 17.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 4.6 | 5.8 | - | - | - | 47.8 | 0.0 | 48.4 | - | 49.5 | 47.8 |
| Cassius Carmichael | - | 18 | 25.2 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 9.3 | 69 | 3.8 | 23.3 | 55.1 | 25.0 | 45.2 | 1.52 | 55.7 | 56.4 |
| Tate Ziemkiewicz | - | 20 | 15.0 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 39 | 1.9 | 23.5 | 45.9 | 38.1 | 59.1 | 3.39 | 58.9 | 56.8 |
| Garrett Barger | - | 9 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.8 | -13 | -1.6 | -51.4 | 81.8 | 0 | 42.9 | -0.9 | 74.6 | 81.8 |
| Nathan Penney | - | 4 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 8 | 2.7 | 18.2 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Ty Yoder | - | 8 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -19 | -2.7 | -114.9 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.12 | 64.4 | 66.7 |
| Noah Hellem | - | 9 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.3 | 13 | 1.6 | 65.0 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.9 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| Jude Tapia | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG