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Fort Hays St.

Also known as: Fort Hays St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1339 (#2) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1336 (#8) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1244 (#3) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +23.2 (#11) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +23.9 (#62) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.914 (#178) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +21.3 More → 0.935 (#119) NetEff +21.3
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -53.2 More → 0.000 (#495) NetEff -53.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +37.7 More → 0.988 (#78) AdjNet +37.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +38.5 More → 0.989 (#75) AdjNet +38.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 78.5 | AdjD 53.5 More → 0.906 (#70) AdjO 78.5 | AdjD 53.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 57.5 More → 0.830 (#19) AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 57.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.923 (#20) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.917 (#17) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 104 | GP 23 More → 1373 (#5) RD 104 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Concordia-St. Paul W 84 - 78
2025-11-15 @ Sioux Falls W 84 - 75
2025-11-21 vs Eastern N.M. W 74 - 66
2025-11-22 @ William Jewell W 90 - 54
2025-11-25 @ UCCS W 66 - 65
2025-11-26 @ MSU Denver W 88 - 73
2025-12-04 @ Central Mo. W 65 - 60
2025-12-06 @ Washburn L 64 - 67
2025-12-13 vs Pittsburg St. W 88 - 70
2025-12-16 vs Tabor W 75 - 37
2025-12-19 vs Chadron St. W 92 - 49
2026-01-01 vs Northwest Mo. St. W 84 - 71
2026-01-03 vs Missouri Western W 87 - 56
2026-01-15 @ Missouri Western W 66 - 60
2026-01-17 @ Northwest Mo. St. W 60 - 46
2026-01-22 vs Rogers St. W 73 - 46
2026-01-24 vs Central Okla. W 78 - 65
2026-01-29 vs Washburn W 59 - 47
2026-01-31 vs Central Mo. L 69 - 81
2026-02-05 @ Northeastern St. W 68 - 63
2026-02-07 @ Ark.-Fort Smith W 73 - 68

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Talexa Weeter - 21 34.1 27.6 8.7 1.8 1.3 1.0 2.6 19.0 18.7 160 7.0 23.5 51.4 38.0 78.5 1.63 61.1 55.8
Olivia Mortensen - 21 29.2 11.9 4.9 1.9 1.3 0.8 2.0 10.5 8.3 96 4.2 17.0 48.4 34.5 64.0 0.23 53.9 52.9
Brooke Loewe - 21 34.5 9.6 5.0 9.7 2.2 0.1 4.4 8.0 14.3 134 5.8 19.9 44.6 39.4 80.9 1.75 53.3 48.5
Ellie Stearns - 19 32.1 7.9 4.7 2.3 1.4 0.3 1.2 7.6 7.8 105 5.0 18.9 36.1 32.7 58.8 -0.19 49.5 48.6
Avery Lowe - 21 19.2 5.5 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 4.4 5.6 110 4.8 30.0 52.7 33.3 52.2 1.66 56.2 55.9
Mikayla Pilley - 21 18.8 4.5 2.8 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.9 3.8 4.2 117 5.1 30.9 44.3 41.0 47.1 1.79 54.3 54.4
Kaitlin Schumann - 21 13.9 4.0 4.1 0.6 0.1 1.1 1.0 3.3 5.5 13 0.6 4.0 45.7 35.7 58.3 -3.19 51.5 49.3
TiAna Davis - 7 6.1 3.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.0 23 3.3 83.5 56.2 37.5 50.0 -1.03 64.8 65.6
Brittan Zeka - 21 13.2 3.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.6 28 1.2 11.5 52.2 39.1 87.5 1.3 64.6 62.0
Sarah Lawless - 6 8.7 1.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.8 1.2 28 4.7 166.3 36.4 0.0 75.0 -0.34 43.1 36.4
Callie Ott - 12 8.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 20 1.3 24.4 43.8 0.0 50.0 -0.3 44.4 43.8

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG