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Fla. Southern

Season: 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018 2016-2017
Also known as: Fla. Southern
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1120 (#78) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1160 (#61) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +73 elo More → 1018 (#123) HCA +73 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More → +15.6 (#53) HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → +11.6 (#72) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.678 (#74) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +17.4 More → 0.882 (#52) AdjNet +17.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +17.6 More → 0.885 (#52) AdjNet +17.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 89.9 | AdjD 77.0 More → 0.764 (#52) AdjO 89.9 | AdjD 77.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 82.3 | AdjD 78.2 More → 0.592 (#87) AdjO 82.3 | AdjD 78.2
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.756 (#65) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.725 (#69) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 127 | GP 32 More → 1153 (#65) RD 127 | GP 32

2025-2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-01 vs Alas. Anchorage W 88 - 76
2025-11-02 vs UVA Wise L 91 - 93
2025-11-14 vs Clark Atlanta W 92 - 72
2025-11-15 vs Savannah St. W 95 - 63
2025-11-18 vs Staten Island W 98 - 77
2025-11-28 vs Winona St. W 88 - 77
2025-11-29 vs Bemidji St. W 99 - 92
2025-12-03 @ Saint Leo W 101 - 93
2025-12-06 vs Rollins W 93 - 88
2025-12-10 vs Lincoln (PA) W 97 - 63
2025-12-13 @ Lynn L 74 - 107
2025-12-19 vs Bentley L 66 - 82
2025-12-20 vs Lees-McRae W 116 - 70
2025-12-31 vs Palm Beach Atl. W 101 - 85
2026-01-03 @ Nova Southeastern L 86 - 104
2026-01-07 vs Barry W 97 - 84
2026-01-10 @ Florida Tech W 81 - 73
2026-01-14 vs Embry-Riddle (FL) W 89 - 83
2026-01-17 @ Eckerd L 81 - 89
2026-01-21 @ Tampa W 84 - 76
2026-01-24 vs Lynn - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 vs Saint Leo W 95 - 85
2026-02-04 @ Palm Beach Atl. L 78 - 86
2026-02-07 @ Rollins L 76 - 99
2026-02-11 vs Eckerd W 106 - 81
2026-02-14 @ Embry-Riddle (FL) W 87 - 82
2026-02-18 vs Florida Tech W 86 - 79
2026-02-21 vs Tampa L 80 - 85
2026-02-25 @ Barry W 84 - 82
2026-02-28 vs Nova Southeastern L 73 - 92
2026-03-05 @ Palm Beach Atl. L 77 - 82
2026-03-14 vs Montevallo L 81 - 88

2025-2026 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Amare Miller - 30 27.6 16.5 8.9 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.3 12.4 15.2 131 27 4.9 7.4 55.8 22.4 68.4 0.94 59.6 57.5
Brady Corso - 32 27.6 14.2 4.0 1.7 1.0 0.2 1.4 10.1 9.7 112 29 3.9 5.8 43.2 38.7 82.6 0.55 61.3 56.5
Jasir Tremble - 31 25.0 11.3 2.0 3.8 1.4 0.2 2.1 9.3 7.2 91 28 3.2 5.5 43.4 41.3 83.3 1.41 56.5 53.6
Ameer Ramadan - 28 25.0 10.6 3.4 3.5 1.2 0.1 1.9 8.6 8.4 93 25 3.7 6.3 41.1 36.4 80.6 0.35 55.2 51.0
Charlie Dalton - 29 28.4 10.4 5.8 3.3 1.3 0.4 1.8 8.3 11.3 122 26 4.7 6.9 44.0 19.7 73.8 1.49 52.6 46.5
Khalil Ross - 32 20.5 9.2 4.2 1.2 1.0 0.7 1.2 7.1 7.9 57 29 2.0 4.0 48.7 28.4 69.6 0.33 56.3 52.9
Elijah Walsh - 32 22.4 9.0 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.3 1.8 7.0 7.8 115 29 4.0 7.4 44.9 34.7 68.3 1.98 57.0 54.4
Spencer Schomers - 30 17.7 6.0 2.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.6 4.4 5.6 34 27 1.3 3.0 54.1 34.7 71.4 -0.67 64.3 63.5
Riley Buccino - 23 7.2 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 3.5 1.7 -13 18 -0.7 -3.6 32.5 29.7 75.0 -3.54 45.3 44.4
Erickson Bans - 20 9.6 2.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.7 3.5 1.3 -43 18 -2.4 -10.2 30.0 21.4 75.0 -4.27 37.9 34.3
Raphael Tawil - 13 2.8 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.6 2 9 0.2 2.6 37.5 33.3 100.0 -0.79 50.4 46.9
Donovan Smith - 14 4.9 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.9 20 10 2.0 14.9 37.5 35.7 0.0 -0.01 51.7 53.1
Hugo Mattioli - 3 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 -2 1 -2.0 -13.3 33.3 33.3 0 -0.67 50.0 50.0
Luke McGinnis - 12 2.2 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 3 7 0.4 5.4 36.4 33.3 0 -0.49 45.5 45.5
Akeem Crandon - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Luke Reilly - 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7 1 -7.0 -176.8 0 0 0 -1.55 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG