🐻⬇️🏀

Ferris St.

Also known as: Ferris St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1244 (#17) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1281 (#16) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1142 (#44) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +23.2 (#12) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +24.3 (#56) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.799 (#245) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +12.5 More → 0.835 (#164) NetEff +12.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +30.3 More → 0.971 (#118) AdjNet +30.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +30.9 More → 0.974 (#119) AdjNet +30.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 78.6 | AdjD 57.4 More → 0.874 (#106) AdjO 78.6 | AdjD 57.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 78.5 | AdjD 62.5 More → 0.811 (#24) AdjO 78.5 | AdjD 62.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.878 (#43) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.871 (#41) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 156 | GP 5 More → 1214 (#39) RD 156 | GP 5

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2026-01-24 vs Lake Superior St. W 90 - 59
2026-01-26 vs Saginaw Valley W 89 - 67
2026-01-31 vs Wayne St. (MI) W 86 - 71
2026-02-02 vs Purdue Northwest W 100 - 52
2026-02-07 @ Wis.-Parkside W 82 - 69

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Kadyn Blanchard - 5 26.9 20.2 6.2 4.0 2.6 0.0 1.6 14.8 16.6 143 8.4 43.4 48.6 32.3 90.5 0.33 60.7 55.4
Mia Riley - 5 25.7 16.0 4.2 1.8 3.4 0.4 2.6 10.4 12.8 129 7.6 42.9 44.2 29.4 87.9 1.2 60.1 49.0
Mya Hiram - 5 23.4 13.6 7.0 3.2 2.4 0.0 2.8 10.6 12.8 105 6.2 41.0 54.7 14.3 90.0 0.52 59.2 55.7
Emma Schierbeek - 5 17.6 11.2 2.4 2.2 1.2 0.8 1.0 8.6 8.2 84 4.9 49.2 46.5 35.7 100.0 0.9 61.3 58.1
Mara Mitchell - 5 14.8 8.4 1.8 2.0 1.4 0.0 1.0 5.8 6.8 52 3.2 35.3 58.6 50.0 80.0 0.75 67.3 65.5
Kenzie Garner - 2 14.0 5.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 5.0 2.5 17 4.2 50.8 40.0 40.0 0 0.31 50.0 50.0
Elle Irwin - 5 26.3 4.4 3.8 3.4 2.4 0.6 1.0 5.2 8.4 190 11.2 58.2 26.9 17.6 62.5 2.63 37.3 32.7
Charlotte Miller - 5 10.9 3.4 1.0 2.0 0.8 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.6 41 2.4 14.1 46.7 33.3 0 -1.48 56.7 56.7
Claire Erickson - 5 16.9 3.4 1.8 1.4 1.6 0.4 1.2 2.0 5.4 -69 -3.8 -16.7 80.0 33.3 0 -0.6 85.0 85.0
Alyssa Wirth - 4 7.8 3.2 2.0 1.2 0.0 0.8 0.2 2.8 4.2 -17 -1.5 -22.6 45.5 100.0 33.3 -1.36 52.8 54.5
Melena Glysch - 4 10.2 3.0 3.2 1.2 1.0 0.0 0.8 1.8 6.0 40 2.9 47.0 57.1 33.3 50.0 1.61 62.2 64.3
Grace Lyons - 3 14.7 2.3 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.3 4.3 25 1.6 18.8 28.6 40.0 50.0 -1.84 44.4 42.9
Ally Schultz - 5 8.6 0.4 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.0 23 1.4 18.4 11.1 0.0 0 0.89 11.1 11.1

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG