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Ferris St.

Also known as: Ferris St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1096 (#54) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1006 (#243) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 994 (#316) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +4.5 (#181) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +5.9 (#225) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.766 (#175) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +18.4 More → 0.880 (#203) NetEff +18.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +22.9 More → 0.934 (#93) AdjNet +22.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +23.1 More → 0.937 (#90) AdjNet +23.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 86.9 | AdjD 69.6 More → 0.829 (#94) AdjO 86.9 | AdjD 69.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 77.9 | AdjD 75.5 More → 0.556 (#205) AdjO 77.9 | AdjD 75.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.610 (#224) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.595 (#235) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 96 | GP 20 More → 1033 (#189) RD 96 | GP 20

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Northwood L 71 - 97
2025-11-15 @ Lake Erie L 72 - 88
2025-11-19 @ Findlay L 70 - 102
2025-11-26 vs Kuyper W 102 - 55
2025-11-29 vs Mich.-Dearborn L 0 - 0
2025-12-04 @ Purdue Northwest W 73 - 68
2025-12-06 @ Wayne St. (MI) L 77 - 98
2025-12-16 @ Lewis W 66 - 64
2025-12-19 vs McKendree L 70 - 75
2025-12-30 vs Grace Christian (MI) W 110 - 74
2026-01-03 vs Roosevelt W 82 - 68
2026-01-05 vs Wis.-Parkside W 74 - 72
2026-01-10 @ Michigan Tech L 72 - 81
2026-01-12 @ Northern Mich. L 66 - 95
2026-01-17 vs Davenport W 82 - 69
2026-01-19 vs Grand Valley St. L 80 - 84
2026-01-24 vs Lake Superior St. W 86 - 84
2026-01-26 vs Saginaw Valley W 85 - 76
2026-01-31 vs Wayne St. (MI) L 73 - 75
2026-02-02 vs Purdue Northwest L 71 - 76
2026-02-07 @ Wis.-Parkside L 63 - 82

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Marcus Tomashek - 1 28.9 25.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 12.0 22.0 32 1.3 4.6 41.7 33.3 92.9 0.15 68.8 50.0
Kyle Ross - 1 30.0 20.0 11.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 17.0 14.0 -12 -0.6 -2.3 47.1 0.0 100.0 -0.18 53.3 47.1
Tyler Hamilton - 6 25.1 13.3 2.0 2.7 0.5 0.2 3.7 10.5 4.5 -34 -5.7 -29.7 39.7 37.5 77.8 -2.75 53.4 46.8
Garrett Clark - 1 35.0 13.0 8.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 7.0 16.0 -16 -0.8 -3.1 57.1 60.0 100.0 0.15 82.5 78.6
Donovan Brown-Boyd - 3 28.7 12.3 7.0 1.3 1.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 10.7 -3 -1.0 -2.5 40.7 23.1 57.1 -1.11 51.0 46.3
Chang Hoth - 18 26.8 12.1 2.4 2.2 0.7 0.4 1.2 9.8 6.8 2 0.1 0.6 38.6 36.5 83.9 -1.4 54.3 48.6
Mykel Bingham - 8 28.6 11.5 6.4 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.6 8.9 10.8 -1 -0.1 -0.6 56.3 22.7 58.3 0.14 60.3 59.9
Dawson Nordgaard - 1 18.1 11.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 11.0 24 1.0 5.6 75.0 0 55.6 0.64 69.1 75.0
Aaiden Ashton - 1 22.0 11.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 6.0 -48 -2.2 -10.4 36.4 20.0 100.0 -1.03 46.3 40.9
Jesse Napgezek - 1 13.6 9.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 6.0 8.0 69 3.0 23.7 66.7 100.0 0.0 -0.05 69.9 75.0
Bryce Moore - 18 23.4 8.3 2.5 1.8 0.7 0.4 2.1 6.5 5.2 58 3.1 18.6 41.0 33.3 74.0 -3.87 54.0 48.3
Hussein Elmaraghy - 6 17.7 8.2 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.2 1.3 6.7 5.3 -5 -1.0 -5.3 50.0 66.7 50.0 -0.13 53.1 52.5
Joey Cabana - 18 24.2 8.1 2.8 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.9 7.4 5.1 -9 -0.5 -2.5 37.3 28.6 78.8 -0.3 49.2 44.8
Gabe Smith - 1 29.5 8.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 -28 -1.2 -4.5 60.0 100.0 16.7 1.33 52.4 70.0
Grant Warren - 1 16.8 8.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 4.0 -53 -2.2 -24.5 50.0 0.0 100.0 -2.16 58.1 50.0
Jordan Jasper - 3 24.9 8.0 3.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 4.0 9.0 0.7 0 0.0 0.0 29.6 16.7 87.5 -1.7 39.3 31.5
Owen Hardy - 18 22.1 7.3 6.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.7 5.1 11.7 -23 -1.2 -6.9 61.5 0.0 61.3 0.14 62.6 61.5
Nate Abel - 1 31.6 7.0 8.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 13.0 19 0.8 3.0 33.3 0.0 83.3 1.25 62.1 33.3
Justin Asi - 13 13.9 6.8 3.8 1.2 0.8 0.1 1.0 5.5 6.3 -7 -0.5 -5.9 46.5 42.9 47.6 0.26 54.8 54.9
Brandon Claerbaut - 17 26.1 6.8 4.5 2.2 0.7 0.5 1.4 5.5 7.9 -35 -1.8 -11.7 45.2 29.6 80.0 1.96 57.0 53.8
Ty Fernholz - 1 19.5 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 -1.0 -62 -2.6 -14.6 33.3 33.3 0 -1.05 50.0 50.0
Andres Arellano Jr. - 1 18.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 1.0 3 0.2 1.4 40.0 0.0 40.0 0.71 41.7 40.0
Josh Terrian - 1 24.6 4.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 8.0 29 1.2 5.6 33.3 33.3 50.0 2.87 51.5 50.0
Matt Schmainda - 1 17.4 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.0 87 3.6 19.3 16.7 0.0 50.0 3.73 21.8 16.7
Kwat Abdelkarim - 1 18.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 17 0.8 3.9 25.0 0.0 0 -0.78 25.0 25.0
Carter Meerman - 7 3.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 -11 -1.6 -290.1 100.0 100.0 50.0 -0.5 90.6 150.0
Quron Williams - 2 2.7 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 50.0 - 17.4 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG