Ferris St.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1096 (#54) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1006 (#243) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 994 (#316) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.5 (#181) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +5.9 (#225) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.766 (#175) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.880 (#203) | NetEff +18.4 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.934 (#93) | AdjNet +22.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.937 (#90) | AdjNet +23.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.829 (#94) | AdjO 86.9 | AdjD 69.6 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.556 (#205) | AdjO 77.9 | AdjD 75.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.610 (#224) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.595 (#235) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1033 (#189) | RD 96 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Northwood | L | 71 - 97 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Lake Erie | L | 72 - 88 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Findlay | L | 70 - 102 |
| 2025-11-26 | vs | Kuyper | W | 102 - 55 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Mich.-Dearborn | L | 0 - 0 |
| 2025-12-04 | @ | Purdue Northwest | W | 73 - 68 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Wayne St. (MI) | L | 77 - 98 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Lewis | W | 66 - 64 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | McKendree | L | 70 - 75 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Grace Christian (MI) | W | 110 - 74 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Roosevelt | W | 82 - 68 |
| 2026-01-05 | vs | Wis.-Parkside | W | 74 - 72 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Michigan Tech | L | 72 - 81 |
| 2026-01-12 | @ | Northern Mich. | L | 66 - 95 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Davenport | W | 82 - 69 |
| 2026-01-19 | vs | Grand Valley St. | L | 80 - 84 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Lake Superior St. | W | 86 - 84 |
| 2026-01-26 | vs | Saginaw Valley | W | 85 - 76 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Wayne St. (MI) | L | 73 - 75 |
| 2026-02-02 | vs | Purdue Northwest | L | 71 - 76 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Wis.-Parkside | L | 63 - 82 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Tomashek | - | 1 | 28.9 | 25.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 22.0 | 32 | 1.3 | 4.6 | 41.7 | 33.3 | 92.9 | 0.15 | 68.8 | 50.0 |
| Kyle Ross | - | 1 | 30.0 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 14.0 | -12 | -0.6 | -2.3 | 47.1 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.18 | 53.3 | 47.1 |
| Tyler Hamilton | - | 6 | 25.1 | 13.3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 3.7 | 10.5 | 4.5 | -34 | -5.7 | -29.7 | 39.7 | 37.5 | 77.8 | -2.75 | 53.4 | 46.8 |
| Garrett Clark | - | 1 | 35.0 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 16.0 | -16 | -0.8 | -3.1 | 57.1 | 60.0 | 100.0 | 0.15 | 82.5 | 78.6 |
| Donovan Brown-Boyd | - | 3 | 28.7 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 10.7 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.5 | 40.7 | 23.1 | 57.1 | -1.11 | 51.0 | 46.3 |
| Chang Hoth | - | 18 | 26.8 | 12.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 38.6 | 36.5 | 83.9 | -1.4 | 54.3 | 48.6 |
| Mykel Bingham | - | 8 | 28.6 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 8.9 | 10.8 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | 56.3 | 22.7 | 58.3 | 0.14 | 60.3 | 59.9 |
| Dawson Nordgaard | - | 1 | 18.1 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 24 | 1.0 | 5.6 | 75.0 | 0 | 55.6 | 0.64 | 69.1 | 75.0 |
| Aaiden Ashton | - | 1 | 22.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | -48 | -2.2 | -10.4 | 36.4 | 20.0 | 100.0 | -1.03 | 46.3 | 40.9 |
| Jesse Napgezek | - | 1 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 69 | 3.0 | 23.7 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | -0.05 | 69.9 | 75.0 |
| Bryce Moore | - | 18 | 23.4 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 58 | 3.1 | 18.6 | 41.0 | 33.3 | 74.0 | -3.87 | 54.0 | 48.3 |
| Hussein Elmaraghy | - | 6 | 17.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 6.7 | 5.3 | -5 | -1.0 | -5.3 | 50.0 | 66.7 | 50.0 | -0.13 | 53.1 | 52.5 |
| Joey Cabana | - | 18 | 24.2 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 7.4 | 5.1 | -9 | -0.5 | -2.5 | 37.3 | 28.6 | 78.8 | -0.3 | 49.2 | 44.8 |
| Gabe Smith | - | 1 | 29.5 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 10.0 | -28 | -1.2 | -4.5 | 60.0 | 100.0 | 16.7 | 1.33 | 52.4 | 70.0 |
| Grant Warren | - | 1 | 16.8 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | -53 | -2.2 | -24.5 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -2.16 | 58.1 | 50.0 |
| Jordan Jasper | - | 3 | 24.9 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 0.7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.6 | 16.7 | 87.5 | -1.7 | 39.3 | 31.5 |
| Owen Hardy | - | 18 | 22.1 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 11.7 | -23 | -1.2 | -6.9 | 61.5 | 0.0 | 61.3 | 0.14 | 62.6 | 61.5 |
| Nate Abel | - | 1 | 31.6 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 19 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 83.3 | 1.25 | 62.1 | 33.3 |
| Justin Asi | - | 13 | 13.9 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | -7 | -0.5 | -5.9 | 46.5 | 42.9 | 47.6 | 0.26 | 54.8 | 54.9 |
| Brandon Claerbaut | - | 17 | 26.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 5.5 | 7.9 | -35 | -1.8 | -11.7 | 45.2 | 29.6 | 80.0 | 1.96 | 57.0 | 53.8 |
| Ty Fernholz | - | 1 | 19.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -62 | -2.6 | -14.6 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 0 | -1.05 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Andres Arellano Jr. | - | 1 | 18.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 0.71 | 41.7 | 40.0 |
| Josh Terrian | - | 1 | 24.6 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 29 | 1.2 | 5.6 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 2.87 | 51.5 | 50.0 |
| Matt Schmainda | - | 1 | 17.4 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 87 | 3.6 | 19.3 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 3.73 | 21.8 | 16.7 |
| Kwat Abdelkarim | - | 1 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 17 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.78 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Carter Meerman | - | 7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 | -11 | -1.6 | -290.1 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 50.0 | -0.5 | 90.6 | 150.0 |
| Quron Williams | - | 2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 17.4 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG