Embry-Riddle (FL)
Model Outputs
2019-2020
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 865 (#225) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 903 (#208) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 895 (#230) | HCA +67 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -0.1 (#197) | HCA +2.9 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -1.6 (#203) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.235 (#225) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.479 (#186) | AdjNet -0.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.486 (#186) | AdjNet -0.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.466 (#199) | AdjO 65.7 | AdjD 67.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.392 (#216) | AdjO 62.7 | AdjD 67.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.414 (#202) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.399 (#207) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 882 (#212) | RD 102 | GP 26 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2019-2020 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-11-09 | vs | Virginia Union | L | 64 - 92 |
| 2019-11-11 | @ | Spring Hill | W | 91 - 76 |
| 2019-11-15 | vs | Flagler | L | 76 - 83 |
| 2019-11-20 | vs | Fla. Southern | L | 49 - 65 |
| 2019-11-23 | vs | Lynn | W | 71 - 69 |
| 2019-11-27 | vs | Oakland City | W | 110 - 69 |
| 2019-12-04 | @ | Rollins | W | 66 - 61 |
| 2019-12-14 | vs | Palm Beach Atl. | W | 73 - 37 |
| 2019-12-16 | vs | Catawba | L | 74 - 82 |
| 2019-12-18 | @ | Bellarmine | L | 60 - 80 |
| 2020-01-02 | @ | Barry | L | 60 - 64 |
| 2020-01-04 | vs | Florida Tech | L | 62 - 77 |
| 2020-01-08 | @ | Tampa | L | 40 - 65 |
| 2020-01-11 | vs | Eckerd | L | 54 - 66 |
| 2020-01-15 | @ | Saint Leo | L | 66 - 79 |
| 2020-01-18 | @ | Nova Southeastern | L | 71 - 84 |
| 2020-01-25 | @ | Lynn | W | 92 - 86 |
| 2020-01-29 | vs | Rollins | W | 62 - 57 |
| 2020-02-01 | @ | Fla. Southern | L | 52 - 81 |
| 2020-02-05 | @ | Palm Beach Atl. | W | 69 - 38 |
| 2020-02-08 | vs | Barry | W | 68 - 53 |
| 2020-02-12 | vs | Tampa | L | 47 - 64 |
| 2020-02-15 | @ | Florida Tech | L | 74 - 80 |
| 2020-02-19 | vs | Saint Leo | L | 69 - 76 |
| 2020-02-22 | @ | Eckerd | L | 65 - 87 |
| 2020-02-29 | vs | Nova Southeastern | L | 54 - 67 |
| 2020-03-03 | @ | Tampa | L | 36 - 76 |
2019-2020 Roster
No roster data available for this season.