Embry-Riddle (FL)
Model Outputs
2018-2019
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1080 (#103) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1148 (#74) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1035 (#103) | HCA +53 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +9.3 (#86) | HCA +2.5 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +6.5 (#119) | HCA +2.4 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.605 (#106) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.848 (#75) | AdjNet +14.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.856 (#73) | AdjNet +15.3 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.675 (#83) | AdjO 70.4 | AdjD 62.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.572 (#101) | AdjO 69.3 | AdjD 66.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.702 (#90) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.683 (#93) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1142 (#77) | RD 129 | GP 28 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2018-2019 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-11-10 | vs | Clark Atlanta | W | 80 - 45 |
| 2018-11-11 | vs | West Ala. | W | 69 - 56 |
| 2018-11-13 | @ | Flagler | W | 62 - 59 |
| 2018-11-21 | vs | P.R.-Mayaguez | W | 84 - 65 |
| 2018-11-24 | vs | West Liberty | W | 104 - 89 |
| 2018-11-28 | @ | Rollins | L | 63 - 71 |
| 2018-12-01 | vs | Nova Southeastern | W | 64 - 55 |
| 2018-12-05 | @ | Fla. Southern | L | 59 - 75 |
| 2018-12-17 | vs | Pittsburg St. | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-18 | @ | Washburn | - | Preview |
| 2018-12-29 | vs | Tampa | W | 67 - 58 |
| 2019-01-02 | vs | Barry | W | 70 - 61 |
| 2019-01-05 | vs | Saint Leo | W | 72 - 36 |
| 2019-01-09 | vs | Lynn | L | 66 - 87 |
| 2019-01-12 | @ | Palm Beach Atl. | - | Preview |
| 2019-01-16 | @ | Florida Tech | W | 60 - 46 |
| 2019-01-19 | vs | Eckerd | L | 60 - 66 |
| 2019-01-26 | @ | Nova Southeastern | L | 61 - 82 |
| 2019-01-30 | vs | Rollins | W | 71 - 66 |
| 2019-02-02 | @ | Tampa | L | 62 - 68 |
| 2019-02-06 | @ | Barry | W | 74 - 65 |
| 2019-02-09 | vs | Fla. Southern | W | 83 - 75 |
| 2019-02-13 | @ | Lynn | W | 74 - 71 |
| 2019-02-16 | @ | Saint Leo | W | 87 - 63 |
| 2019-02-20 | vs | Florida Tech | L | 60 - 78 |
| 2019-02-23 | vs | Palm Beach Atl. | W | 74 - 49 |
| 2019-03-02 | @ | Eckerd | L | 48 - 73 |
| 2019-03-06 | @ | Nova Southeastern | L | 79 - 85 |
2018-2019 Roster
No roster data available for this season.