Embry-Riddle (FL)
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1092 (#96) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1139 (#76) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1040 (#104) | HCA +52 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +7.1 (#92) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +6.6 (#95) | HCA +2.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.613 (#116) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.757 (#92) | AdjNet +9.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.763 (#91) | AdjNet +10.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.636 (#90) | AdjO 60.6 | AdjD 54.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.571 (#114) | AdjO 59.4 | AdjD 56.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.665 (#89) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.653 (#93) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1140 (#76) | RD 142 | GP 26 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2016-2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-11 | vs | Lindenwood | W | 66 - 61 |
| 2016-11-12 | @ | Flagler | W | 78 - 65 |
| 2016-11-16 | vs | Rollins | W | 60 - 58 |
| 2016-11-19 | vs | Eckerd | W | 66 - 64 |
| 2016-11-22 | vs | Central Mo. | L | 50 - 67 |
| 2016-11-26 | @ | North Georgia | L | 34 - 60 |
| 2016-11-30 | @ | Saint Leo | W | 71 - 65 |
| 2016-12-03 | @ | Tampa | W | 57 - 49 |
| 2016-12-09 | vs | Palm Beach Atl. | W | 57 - 53 |
| 2016-12-16 | vs | Converse | W | 79 - 48 |
| 2016-12-17 | vs | Texas Woman's | L | 58 - 59 |
| 2016-12-30 | @ | Nova Southeastern | W | 57 - 53 |
| 2017-01-04 | @ | Florida Tech | L | 60 - 73 |
| 2017-01-07 | vs | Lynn | W | 64 - 63 |
| 2017-01-14 | @ | Barry | W | 56 - 48 |
| 2017-01-18 | vs | Fla. Southern | W | 65 - 54 |
| 2017-01-21 | vs | Saint Leo | W | 66 - 38 |
| 2017-01-25 | @ | Eckerd | L | 46 - 65 |
| 2017-01-28 | @ | Lynn | L | 47 - 64 |
| 2017-02-01 | @ | Rollins | L | 50 - 52 |
| 2017-02-04 | vs | Tampa | W | 63 - 36 |
| 2017-02-11 | @ | Fla. Southern | L | 40 - 69 |
| 2017-02-15 | vs | Nova Southeastern | L | 51 - 56 |
| 2017-02-18 | vs | Florida Tech | W | 65 - 45 |
| 2017-02-22 | @ | Palm Beach Atl. | W | 66 - 62 |
| 2017-02-25 | vs | Barry | W | 65 - 50 |
2016-2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.