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Elms

Also known as: Elms
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 979 (#282) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 887 (#385) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -25.9 (#381) HCA +2.4
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.173 (#599) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -16.6 More → 0.084 (#364) NetEff -16.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -35.7 More → 0.015 (#651) AdjNet -35.7
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -36.8 More → 0.013 (#652) AdjNet -36.8
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 52.9 | AdjD 75.8 More → 0.111 (#647) AdjO 52.9 | AdjD 75.8

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-11 @ Emerson L 70 - 80
2024-11-16 @ Fitchburg St. W 86 - 81
2024-11-18 @ Wentworth W 68 - 58
2024-11-21 vs Salem St. L 51 - 74
2024-11-23 @ Gordon L 39 - 69
2024-11-26 @ Westfield St. L 49 - 89
2024-12-03 vs Wellesley L 34 - 54
2024-12-05 vs VTSU Lyndon W 71 - 57
2024-12-10 @ Amherst L 28 - 66
2024-12-29 @ Nazareth L 59 - 95
2024-12-30 vs WPI L 51 - 76
2025-01-04 vs JWU (Providence) L 66 - 86
2025-01-07 @ Rivier L 55 - 80
2025-01-11 @ Dean W 73 - 54
2025-01-15 vs Colby-Sawyer W 71 - 63
2025-01-21 vs Mitchell W 76 - 49
2025-01-25 @ St. Joseph's (ME) L 55 - 83
2025-01-29 @ Albertus Magnus L 69 - 90
2025-02-01 vs New England Col. L 57 - 67
2025-02-04 vs Norwich W 81 - 72
2025-02-10 @ Emmanuel (MA) L 44 - 71
2025-02-12 @ Regis (MA) W 65 - 64
2025-02-15 @ Saint Joseph (CT) L 38 - 77
2025-02-19 vs Anna Maria L 55 - 74
2025-02-22 vs Lasell W 63 - 58
2025-02-24 vs Lasell W 66 - 60
2025-02-25 @ JWU (Providence) L 50 - 89

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Rahmia Johnston - 27 35.8 12.4 6.0 2.6 1.9 0.1 3.3 11.2 8.6 -120 -5.2 -4.7 29.7 24.5 77.2 -0.52 45.1 35.3
Jade Lewis - 27 31.8 11.2 4.1 2.5 1.6 0.0 5.8 10.8 2.7 -42 -1.8 -1.7 33.9 30.2 73.5 0.71 44.8 38.9
Mary Turco - 27 23.7 10.4 9.5 1.1 1.4 1.1 3.8 8.8 10.9 -141 -4.5 -5.5 46.0 0.0 54.9 -0.97 48.8 46.0
Piper Graham - 26 24.4 6.2 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.1 2.0 7.5 1.1 -110 -3.5 -4.6 26.7 29.0 74.3 -0.67 38.3 34.6
Talia Uribe - 26 22.7 5.1 4.3 0.7 1.6 0.1 2.6 5.8 3.4 -117 -3.8 -4.7 23.2 18.2 65.6 -0.97 34.6 23.8
Jenny Gorski - 26 17.4 4.7 5.4 0.6 1.3 0.3 2.1 4.5 5.6 -58 -2.6 -5.8 46.2 0.0 48.3 -0.44 47.0 46.2
Gabby Wasiewicz - 17 8.9 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.9 4.5 0.1 -31 -1.5 -4.7 27.3 25.0 57.1 -0.43 38.7 37.7
Kelly Lebel - 6 14.8 3.3 1.2 0.0 0.7 0.0 1.3 5.5 -1.7 -16 -0.6 -1.6 21.2 11.1 80.0 -0.15 28.4 24.2
Shea Barron - 27 14.2 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.6 3.1 1.2 -78 -3.4 -7.3 26.2 34.0 61.1 -0.59 38.6 35.7
Autumn Koch - 10 4.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.1 - - - 23.1 25.0 100.0 - 39.6 34.6
Sophia Andrade - 26 7.4 0.8 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.5 -3 -0.1 -0.3 19.4 22.7 25.0 0.34 26.5 26.4
Ta'niyah Scott - 5 2.0 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.2 - - - 50.0 0 0.0 - 34.7 50.0
Danajah Stokes - 9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 - - - 33.3 0 100.0 - 51.5 33.3
Stephanie Mildner - 26 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 -19 -1.0 -16.6 40.0 0 0.0 -0.19 36.8 40.0
Heaven Smith - 21 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.0 -1 -0.1 -0.2 40.0 0 0 0.34 40.0 40.0
Mia Pacheco - 25 1.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 -0.0 -10 -0.8 -11.5 14.3 25.0 33.3 -0.08 25.9 21.4
Phonia Guerrier - 25 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 - - - 25.0 0.0 50.0 - 34.7 25.0
Soliyana Asfaw - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 0 - 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG