ElmsModel Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 697 (#393) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 708 (#386) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 825 (#393) | HCA +58 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -15.4 (#381) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -16.3 (#386) | HCA +2.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.180 (#361) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.118 (#374) | AdjNet -17.5 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.117 (#373) | AdjNet -17.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.227 (#379) | AdjO 71.9 | AdjD 85.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.259 (#385) | AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 82.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.166 (#385) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.170 (#387) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 676 (#388) | RD 148 | GP 25 |
2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-15 | @ | Gordon | L | 69 - 83 |
| 2016-11-18 | @ | Plattsburgh St. | L | 101 - 126 |
| 2016-11-19 | vs | Rensselaer | L | 71 - 77 |
| 2016-11-22 | vs | Trinity (CT) | L | 59 - 88 |
| 2016-11-29 | @ | Fitchburg St. | L | 65 - 91 |
| 2016-12-01 | @ | Wheelock | L | 75 - 84 |
| 2016-12-03 | @ | Mitchell | W | 82 - 77 |
| 2016-12-10 | vs | Wheelock | L | 86 - 100 |
| 2017-01-03 | @ | Plymouth St. | L | 70 - 89 |
| 2017-01-05 | vs | Rhode Island Col. | L | 84 - 94 |
| 2017-01-10 | vs | Becker | L | 71 - 72 |
| 2017-01-12 | vs | Lesley | W | 97 - 82 |
| 2017-01-14 | @ | Regis (MA) | L | 62 - 75 |
| 2017-01-17 | vs | Newbury | L | 80 - 83 |
| 2017-01-19 | @ | Southern Vt. | L | 69 - 86 |
| 2017-01-24 | vs | Daniel Webster | W | 78 - 70 |
| 2017-01-28 | vs | Mitchell | W | 74 - 69 |
| 2017-01-31 | @ | Daniel Webster | L | 65 - 88 |
| 2017-02-02 | @ | Becker | L | 60 - 77 |
| 2017-02-06 | @ | Western New Eng. | L | 67 - 92 |
| 2017-02-08 | vs | Westfield St. | L | 83 - 85 |
| 2017-02-11 | vs | Regis (MA) | L | 69 - 85 |
| 2017-02-14 | @ | Newbury | L | 90 - 96 |
| 2017-02-16 | vs | Southern Vt. | L | 72 - 75 |
| 2017-02-18 | @ | Lesley | L | 69 - 87 |
2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.