🐻⬇️🏀

Elms

Also known as: Elms
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 931 (#493) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 882 (#514) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 884 (#690) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -22.6 (#383) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -23.7 (#718) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.069 (#754) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -33.2 More → 0.021 (#752) AdjNet -33.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -33.9 More → 0.019 (#753) AdjNet -33.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 83.6 More → 0.096 (#745) AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 83.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.8 | AdjD 76.0 More → 0.174 (#756) AdjO 58.8 | AdjD 76.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.137 (#722) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.139 (#726) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 106 | GP 22 More → 869 (#510) RD 106 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Thomas (ME) W 83 - 57
2025-11-08 @ Lesley W 76 - 64
2025-11-12 @ Russell Sage L 72 - 84
2025-11-14 vs Maine Maritime W 80 - 72
2025-11-15 @ Amherst L 52 - 96
2025-11-19 vs VTSU Lyndon W 103 - 78
2025-11-22 @ St. Joseph's (Brkln) W 72 - 62
2025-11-25 vs Curry L 59 - 64
2025-12-04 vs Framingham St. L 54 - 70
2025-12-06 @ Brown L 34 - 115
2025-12-07 @ MCLA W 70 - 56
2026-01-01 @ Dartmouth L 43 - 107
2026-01-03 @ Pratt L 60 - 90
2026-01-07 @ Dean L 55 - 71
2026-01-10 vs Saint Joseph (CT) L 65 - 78
2026-01-14 vs Regis (MA) W 65 - 55
2026-01-17 @ Mitchell L 46 - 65
2026-01-20 @ Albertus Magnus L 68 - 125
2026-01-24 @ Colby-Sawyer W 56 - 52
2026-01-28 vs St. Joseph's (ME) L 74 - 91
2026-02-03 @ New England Col. W 62 - 51
2026-02-07 vs Emmanuel (MA) L 71 - 76

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Aden Goffe - 6 30.8 17.8 7.7 3.3 1.2 0.3 2.7 16.5 11.2 -44 -6.3 -22.2 39.4 35.3 88.5 2.32 48.4 42.4
Luke Montejo - 1 29.0 15.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 11.0 11.0 27 2.1 12.4 54.5 25.0 66.7 0.03 60.9 59.1
Moses Semuhoza - 1 18.0 15.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 8.0 -48 -5.3 -29.3 62.5 66.7 75.0 -3.19 76.8 75.0
RJ Mayfield - 20 27.6 11.4 4.8 0.8 1.6 1.1 2.0 11.3 6.3 -173 -9.1 -48.9 44.5 19.5 78.3 -1.22 48.1 46.3
DJ Watkins - 20 27.0 10.7 4.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.4 11.1 4.3 -48 -2.8 -13.3 38.3 30.4 70.4 0.19 45.5 43.7
Andrew Ciaglo - 13 26.9 10.2 3.8 1.2 1.2 0.1 1.4 8.5 6.7 -171 -15.5 -80.0 37.3 37.0 70.0 -0.53 54.0 50.9
Jaxon Miles - 1 27.0 10.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 11.0 3.0 -14 -1.2 -11.6 45.5 0.0 0 -0.9 45.5 45.5
Aiden MacLeod - 1 22.0 8.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 10.0 -21 -2.3 -7.6 66.7 0 57.1 -4.16 65.8 66.7
Aaron Feaster - 1 18.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 8.0 -83 -5.2 -57.3 50.0 66.7 50.0 -2.53 71.7 75.0
Edgardo Jacob Cancel - 20 20.0 6.7 3.8 1.4 1.1 0.2 1.4 6.5 5.3 -81 -4.8 -32.2 37.4 26.2 75.8 -1.08 46.0 41.6
Mateo Duran - 1 19.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 -45 -3.8 -30.1 50.0 50.0 50.0 -1.95 61.5 62.5
Jack Lo - 10 19.7 5.0 2.4 1.1 1.0 0.0 1.5 4.8 3.2 -50 -5.0 -47.8 31.2 15.0 70.8 -0.29 42.7 34.4
Kenray Emadamerho - 1 26.0 5.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 -11 -0.8 -4.8 25.0 25.0 50.0 -0.76 43.4 37.5
Jaedon Bogar - 20 17.8 4.3 3.5 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.4 4.0 4.3 -31 -1.7 -7.9 43.2 0.0 54.8 0.1 46.0 43.2
Jamie Lawson - 19 14.1 4.1 2.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.5 4.2 2.4 -28 -1.6 -13.1 36.7 17.4 55.2 1.4 42.5 39.2
Ryan Ellis - 1 22.0 4.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 6.0 8.0 -59 -4.2 -19.9 16.7 0.0 50.0 -0.95 25.8 16.7
Max Rolnick - 14 9.9 3.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 3.8 0.9 -26 -2.2 -31.6 32.1 32.6 0 0.17 45.3 45.3
Sean Chanakira - 1 26.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 7.0 -6 -0.8 -21.9 50.0 0.0 50.0 0.34 52.1 50.0
Daniel Villanueva - 17 12.4 2.6 2.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.4 2.9 1.6 -1 -0.1 -1.0 32.0 17.6 75.0 3.8 39.8 35.0
Rayquan Anderson - 13 10.8 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.0 7 0.7 6.2 48.1 0.0 50.0 -0.92 49.6 48.1
Adam Sarlan - 18 16.1 2.2 3.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.3 -27 -1.7 -14.7 34.3 0 76.2 1.4 45.2 34.3
Travis Jordan - 15 10.8 2.1 1.9 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.8 3.7 -0.2 -42 -3.5 -66.3 25.5 7.7 33.3 0.13 27.1 26.4
Sammy Nzeyimana - 1 14.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 5.0 -69 -5.8 -85.0 0.0 0 100.0 -1.98 53.2 0.0
Aiden Dunlap - 9 5.1 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.9 -12 -1.5 -42.7 70.0 0.0 20.0 -0.06 61.5 70.0
Donel Kabongo-Mutombo - 4 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1 0.2 9.1 33.3 0 100.0 0.55 51.5 33.3
Michael Hills - 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 28 2.5 28.0 0.0 0.0 0 -3.37 0.0 0.0
Shawn O'Keefe - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -7 -0.8 -16.9 0.0 0.0 0 0.04 0.0 0.0
Josh Robie - 1 14.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 -4.0 38 2.9 15.0 0.0 0.0 0 1.07 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG