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Elms

Also known as: Elms
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 932 (#484) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 889 (#500) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 884 (#690) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → -20.2 (#462) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -23.7 (#718) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.069 (#754) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -33.2 More → 0.021 (#752) AdjNet -33.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -33.9 More → 0.019 (#753) AdjNet -33.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 83.6 More → 0.096 (#745) AdjO 59.0 | AdjD 83.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 58.8 | AdjD 76.0 More → 0.174 (#756) AdjO 58.8 | AdjD 76.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.137 (#723) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.139 (#726) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 106 | GP 22 More → 871 (#500) RD 106 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Thomas (ME) - Incomplete score
2025-11-08 @ Lesley - Incomplete score
2025-11-12 @ Russell Sage - Incomplete score
2025-11-14 vs Maine Maritime - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 @ Amherst - Incomplete score
2025-11-19 vs VTSU Lyndon - Incomplete score
2025-11-22 @ St. Joseph's (Brkln) - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 vs Curry - Incomplete score
2025-12-04 vs Framingham St. - Incomplete score
2025-12-06 @ Brown - Incomplete score
2025-12-07 @ MCLA - Incomplete score
2026-01-01 @ Dartmouth - Incomplete score
2026-01-03 @ Pratt - Incomplete score
2026-01-07 @ Dean - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 vs Saint Joseph (CT) - Incomplete score
2026-01-14 vs Regis (MA) - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 @ Mitchell - Incomplete score
2026-01-20 @ Albertus Magnus - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Colby-Sawyer - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 vs St. Joseph's (ME) - Incomplete score
2026-02-03 @ New England Col. - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 vs Emmanuel (MA) - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Aden Goffe - 6 30.8 17.8 7.7 3.3 1.2 0.3 2.7 16.5 11.2 -44 -6.3 -22.2 39.4 35.3 88.5 3.24 48.4 42.4
Luke Montejo - 1 29.0 15.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 11.0 11.0 27 2.1 12.4 54.5 25.0 66.7 0.8 60.9 59.1
Moses Semuhoza - 1 18.0 15.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 8.0 -48 -5.3 -29.3 62.5 66.7 75.0 -1.97 76.8 75.0
RJ Mayfield - 18 28.6 12.1 5.1 0.8 1.6 1.2 2.1 11.8 6.8 -173 -9.1 -48.9 45.1 20.5 78.3 -0.63 48.9 46.9
Andrew Ciaglo - 11 28.6 11.5 4.3 1.3 1.1 0.1 1.5 9.2 7.5 -171 -15.5 -80.0 38.6 38.4 70.0 -2.47 55.6 52.5
DJ Watkins - 18 27.9 11.3 4.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 1.2 11.2 5.2 -48 -2.8 -13.3 40.3 32.4 70.4 -0.84 47.9 46.0
Jaxon Miles - 1 27.0 10.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 11.0 3.0 -14 -1.2 -11.6 45.5 0.0 0 -2.42 45.5 45.5
Aiden MacLeod - 1 22.0 8.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 10.0 -21 -2.3 -7.6 66.7 0 57.1 -3.67 65.8 66.7
Aaron Feaster - 1 18.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 8.0 -83 -5.2 -57.3 50.0 66.7 50.0 -4.05 71.7 75.0
Edgardo Jacob Cancel - 18 20.4 6.7 3.8 1.3 1.1 0.3 1.4 6.4 5.4 -81 -4.8 -32.2 37.9 22.9 75.8 -2.28 46.4 41.4
Mateo Duran - 1 19.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 -45 -3.8 -30.1 50.0 50.0 50.0 -1.29 61.5 62.5
Jack Lo - 9 20.1 5.6 2.4 1.0 1.1 0.0 1.6 5.1 3.4 -50 -5.0 -47.8 32.6 15.8 70.8 -0.69 44.2 35.9
Kenray Emadamerho - 1 26.0 5.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 -11 -0.8 -4.8 25.0 25.0 50.0 -0.85 43.4 37.5
Jaedon Bogar - 18 18.1 4.7 3.8 0.8 0.9 0.3 1.5 4.2 4.8 -31 -1.7 -7.9 46.1 0.0 51.7 0.17 47.9 46.1
Jamie Lawson - 17 13.8 4.0 2.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.5 -28 -1.6 -13.1 35.7 14.3 55.6 -1.55 41.5 37.9
Ryan Ellis - 1 22.0 4.0 6.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 6.0 8.0 -59 -4.2 -19.9 16.7 0.0 50.0 -0.7 25.8 16.7
Max Rolnick - 12 9.3 3.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 3.2 1.2 -26 -2.2 -31.6 35.9 36.7 0 -2.52 50.0 50.0
Sean Chanakira - 1 26.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 7.0 -6 -0.8 -21.9 50.0 0.0 50.0 -1.27 52.1 50.0
Daniel Villanueva - 15 12.0 2.9 2.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.4 3.1 1.9 -1 -0.1 -1.0 34.8 20.0 75.0 0.4 42.9 38.0
Rayquan Anderson - 11 10.9 2.7 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.4 7 0.7 6.2 48.0 0.0 50.0 -0.7 49.5 48.0
Adam Sarlan - 16 16.6 2.5 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.5 2.1 4.6 -27 -1.7 -14.7 36.4 0 76.2 -0.04 47.3 36.4
Travis Jordan - 13 10.1 2.3 2.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 1.7 3.7 0.4 -42 -3.5 -66.3 27.1 7.7 60.0 -5.2 29.9 28.1
Sammy Nzeyimana - 1 14.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 5.0 -69 -5.8 -85.0 0.0 0 100.0 -2.33 53.2 0.0
Aiden Dunlap - 7 3.9 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.0 -12 -1.5 -42.7 66.7 0.0 20.0 -2.74 54.9 66.7
Donel Kabongo-Mutombo - 4 3.0 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 1 0.2 9.1 33.3 0 100.0 - 51.5 33.3
Michael Hills - 1 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 28 2.5 28.0 0.0 0.0 0 2.13 0.0 0.0
Shawn O'Keefe - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -7 -0.8 -16.9 0.0 0.0 0 -1.26 0.0 0.0
Josh Robie - 1 14.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 -4.0 38 2.9 15.0 0.0 0.0 0 3.21 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG