Elmhurst
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1062 (#115) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1060 (#223) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1017 (#311) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +14.8 (#63) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +6.0 (#258) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.607 (#400) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.657 (#299) | NetEff +5.3 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.760 (#290) | AdjNet +10.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.762 (#288) | AdjNet +9.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.615 (#291) | AdjO 70.9 | AdjD 65.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.627 (#200) | AdjO 67.7 | AdjD 62.0 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.663 (#247) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.656 (#254) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1045 (#261) | RD 93 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Rose-Hulman | W | 72 - 51 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | WashU | L | 70 - 83 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Kalamazoo | W | 59 - 39 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Manchester | L | 59 - 68 |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | UChicago | L | 0 - 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Millikin | W | 64 - 60 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Ill. Wesleyan | L | 59 - 81 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Adrian | W | 60 - 54 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | St. Mary's (IN) | W | 74 - 55 |
| 2025-12-29 | @ | Ohio Northern | L | 62 - 73 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Trine | L | 62 - 81 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Augustana (IL) | W | 64 - 61 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Carthage | L | 70 - 73 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | North Park | W | 95 - 67 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | North Central (IL) | L | 61 - 71 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Wheaton (IL) | W | 82 - 52 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Millikin | W | 72 - 63 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Carroll (WI) | L | 50 - 63 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Ill. Wesleyan | L | 59 - 77 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristin Bukata | - | 18 | 38.5 | 16.7 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 12.3 | 17.5 | 122 | 6.8 | 43.9 | 48.6 | 17.4 | 71.7 | 1.45 | 55.4 | 49.5 |
| Natalie Harty | - | 18 | 28.4 | 12.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 10.4 | 3.9 | 77 | 3.9 | 36.4 | 39.4 | 35.2 | 82.4 | 0.28 | 54.4 | 51.3 |
| Anna Kleszynski | - | 18 | 28.4 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 80 | 4.0 | 49.8 | 42.2 | 30.9 | 42.5 | 2.29 | 48.5 | 48.5 |
| Natalie Robinson | - | 17 | 28.7 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 40 | 2.1 | 22.9 | 60.2 | 0 | 44.4 | -1.33 | 58.7 | 60.2 |
| Maia Lewers | - | 18 | 30.8 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 83 | 4.2 | 45.0 | 33.6 | 32.4 | 63.9 | 1.77 | 41.4 | 37.7 |
| Sierra Gibson | - | 10 | 14.3 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 14 | 1.2 | 10.0 | 25.8 | 0.0 | 68.2 | -1.31 | 32.4 | 25.8 |
| Diellza Dalipi | - | 18 | 15.0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 31 | 1.6 | 24.5 | 53.1 | 33.3 | 38.5 | 2.12 | 53.0 | 54.1 |
| Natally Medina | - | 5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.0 | 110.8 | 62.5 | 0 | 50.0 | 0.16 | 61.5 | 62.5 |
| Jacy Fierst | - | 13 | 8.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 4 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 31.0 | 30.4 | 50.0 | -0.35 | 43.5 | 43.1 |
| Ella Conyers | - | 18 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 35 | 1.8 | 62.5 | 24.4 | 18.9 | 0 | 1.05 | 32.2 | 32.2 |
| Jayla White | - | 12 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 15 | 1.2 | 68.3 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.22 | 29.1 | 25.0 |
| Macie Gil Ramos | - | 9 | 4.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.0 | -0.8 | -12 | -1.1 | -165.5 | 11.1 | 16.7 | 50.0 | 0.11 | 20.2 | 16.7 |
| Trinity Childs | - | 5 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 | 110.8 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Diamond Young | - | 3 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cheyenne White | - | 2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -5 | -2.5 | -111.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.51 | 0.0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG