Elizabethtown
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 988 (#260) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1214 (#42) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1085 (#109) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +10.1 (#94) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +7.6 (#237) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.921 (#222) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.804 (#222) | NetEff +10.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.947 (#170) | AdjNet +25.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.947 (#172) | AdjNet +24.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.800 (#177) | AdjO 74.7 | AdjD 59.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.677 (#146) | AdjO 67.9 | AdjD 59.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.762 (#158) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.756 (#159) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1185 (#76) | RD 99 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | vs | Rowan | W | 58 - 55 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Haverford | W | 115 - 104 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Moravian | W | 70 - 67 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Susquehanna | W | 59 - 56 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Messiah | W | 80 - 77 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | Drew | W | 59 - 39 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs | Shenandoah | L | 54 - 56 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Dickinson | L | 49 - 66 |
| 2025-12-30 | vs | Arcadia | L | 68 - 82 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Wilkes | W | 59 - 39 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Juniata | W | 75 - 54 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Lycoming | W | 72 - 48 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Catholic | L | 65 - 84 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Susquehanna | L | 62 - 75 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Moravian | W | 78 - 66 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Goucher | W | 89 - 43 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Drew | W | 60 - 59 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Scranton | L | 48 - 88 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makenna Mummert | - | 18 | 33.5 | 17.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 13.6 | 8.2 | 68 | 3.2 | 22.7 | 45.5 | 36.5 | 88.2 | 1.99 | 55.5 | 49.4 |
| Kamryn Mengel | - | 6 | 24.8 | 12.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 11.3 | 4.5 | 30 | 5.0 | 30.2 | 41.2 | 20.0 | 84.2 | -0.13 | 49.8 | 44.1 |
| Allyia Kennedy | - | 18 | 22.8 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 9 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 48.1 | 20.7 | 84.8 | 0.22 | 55.4 | 50.0 |
| Cadence Anderson | - | 18 | 27.1 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 38 | 1.8 | 14.6 | 39.4 | 36.0 | 75.9 | 0.91 | 50.1 | 46.5 |
| Kiley Wilhelm | - | 17 | 23.4 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 16 | 0.8 | 8.7 | 40.2 | 33.3 | 74.5 | 0.9 | 48.7 | 41.5 |
| Ellie Fasick | - | 18 | 20.4 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 79 | 3.8 | 35.1 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 60.6 | 1.66 | 51.5 | 49.0 |
| Ella Gordon | - | 18 | 35.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 61 | 3.4 | 19.1 | 27.8 | 32.8 | 76.5 | 2.48 | 46.7 | 40.0 |
| Peyton Houlihan | - | 18 | 14.5 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 3.5 | -17 | -0.9 | -10.0 | 40.5 | 0 | 30.8 | -1.09 | 40.1 | 40.5 |
| Alex Gonzalez | - | 11 | 9.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | -10 | -1.2 | -8.7 | 44.8 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 0.46 | 53.7 | 53.4 |
| Ava Chapman | - | 15 | 11.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | -6 | -0.4 | -4.7 | 23.8 | 31.6 | 88.9 | -0.49 | 37.0 | 31.0 |
| Ashley Adamson | - | 5 | 6.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 2.2 | -0.8 | - | - | - | 27.3 | 16.7 | 0 | - | 31.8 | 31.8 |
| Danielle Kanse | - | 8 | 6.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 11 | 1.2 | 20.8 | 30.8 | 16.7 | 50.0 | -0.32 | 37.3 | 34.6 |
| Maggie Mellott | - | 4 | 2.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 5 | 1.0 | 33.7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.69 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Emma Herman | - | 3 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 3 | 0.8 | 26.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.38 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG