Edward Waters
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 983 (#265) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 967 (#298) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 964 (#453) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +2.3 (#243) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +1.6 (#300) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.337 (#421) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.988 (#101) | NetEff +35.9 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.358 (#481) | AdjNet -5.1 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.356 (#482) | AdjNet -5.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.420 (#478) | AdjO 73.7 | AdjD 77.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.531 (#248) | AdjO 72.2 | AdjD 70.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.477 (#332) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.485 (#328) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 933 (#304) | RD 93 | GP 24 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Valdosta St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Florida Tech | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Lane | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | LeMoyne-Owen | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Flagler | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | North Georgia | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-04 | vs | Kentucky St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Central St. (OH) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-11 | @ | Spring Hill | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Albany St. (GA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | Miles | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Tuskegee | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-05 | @ | Morehouse | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-08 | vs | Clark Atlanta | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Fort Valley St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Allen | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Savannah St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-19 | vs | Benedict | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-22 | vs | Lane | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-29 | @ | Kentucky St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Central St. (OH) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-03 | vs | LeMoyne-Owen | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Spring Hill | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Albany St. (GA) | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keshawn Evans | - | 24 | 33.5 | 15.5 | 10.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 8.1 | 18.8 | 14 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 60.8 | 31.4 | 74.6 | 0.41 | 69.5 | 63.7 |
| Amari Floyd | - | 6 | 32.2 | 13.7 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 10.3 | 10.2 | -14 | -2.0 | -10.3 | 61.3 | 31.2 | 50.0 | 2.48 | 65.2 | 65.3 |
| Jaelen Nelson | - | 24 | 30.1 | 11.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 36 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 41.2 | 36.2 | 76.4 | 1.34 | 53.4 | 50.0 |
| Cyrus Huggard-Noel | - | 24 | 24.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 13 | 0.6 | 4.6 | 45.0 | 33.3 | 48.7 | 0.44 | 50.8 | 50.0 |
| Jayvon Johnson | - | 20 | 23.4 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 19 | 1.0 | 7.7 | 44.4 | 25.9 | 74.5 | 3.15 | 53.0 | 47.4 |
| Cameran Oates | - | 3 | 24.6 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 17 | 5.7 | 11.5 | 34.8 | 16.7 | 71.4 | 1.54 | 42.2 | 37.0 |
| Gabe Guilford | - | 24 | 24.6 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 5.8 | 3.6 | -39 | -1.9 | -12.9 | 36.7 | 30.5 | 90.4 | -0.51 | 53.7 | 45.7 |
| Amayoa'ah Phillips | - | 19 | 20.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | -4 | -0.2 | -1.3 | 42.3 | 28.0 | 54.5 | -3.84 | 46.9 | 45.1 |
| Jahlil Green | - | 23 | 16.6 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 38.3 | 0 | 72.7 | 0.87 | 44.7 | 38.3 |
| Joshua Goode | - | 12 | 23.9 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 5 | 0.4 | 28.6 | 25.8 | 33.3 | 62.5 | -0.06 | 38.1 | 30.6 |
| X'Zavion McCoy | - | 2 | 17.2 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 32 | 16.0 | 37.2 | 28.6 | 50.0 | 60.0 | 4.16 | 43.5 | 35.7 |
| Myles Hosten | - | 7 | 16.9 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | - | - | - | 36.7 | 0.0 | 100.0 | -0.94 | 40.9 | 36.7 |
| Carter Von Hankerson | - | 20 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | -15 | -0.9 | -18.3 | 46.8 | 0 | 38.9 | 0.36 | 46.4 | 46.8 |
| Tyrone Barbee | - | 2 | 12.1 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 7 | 3.5 | 11.6 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | - | 56.3 | 62.5 |
| Kyle White | - | 10 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | -1.5 | -34 | -4.2 | -148.4 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 33.3 | -4.59 | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| Anthony Jones | - | 2 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG