🐻⬇️🏀

Edward Waters

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2017 2016
Also known as: Edward Waters
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 918 (#364) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 955 (#328) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 964 (#453) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +0.5 (#228) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +1.6 (#300) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.337 (#421) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +35.9 More → 0.988 (#101) NetEff +35.9
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -5.1 More → 0.358 (#481) AdjNet -5.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -5.1 More → 0.356 (#482) AdjNet -5.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 73.7 | AdjD 77.2 More → 0.420 (#478) AdjO 73.7 | AdjD 77.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 72.2 | AdjD 70.8 More → 0.531 (#248) AdjO 72.2 | AdjD 70.8
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.477 (#333) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.485 (#329) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 93 | GP 24 More → 927 (#306) RD 93 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 @ Valdosta St. L 70 - 85
2025-11-15 @ Florida Tech W 78 - 58
2025-11-20 @ Lane W 91 - 88
2025-11-22 @ LeMoyne-Owen W 76 - 65
2025-11-25 vs Flagler W 62 - 59
2025-11-29 vs North Georgia L 60 - 65
2025-12-04 vs Kentucky St. W 68 - 63
2025-12-06 vs Central St. (OH) W 65 - 63
2025-12-11 @ Spring Hill L 71 - 75
2025-12-13 @ Albany St. (GA) L 66 - 69
2025-12-17 vs Miles L 66 - 70
2025-12-19 vs Tuskegee L 54 - 71
2026-01-05 @ Morehouse L 53 - 58
2026-01-08 vs Clark Atlanta L 70 - 82
2026-01-10 vs Fort Valley St. W 83 - 82
2026-01-14 @ Allen W 82 - 62
2026-01-17 @ Savannah St. L 63 - 69
2026-01-19 vs Benedict L 61 - 63
2026-01-22 vs Lane W 76 - 70
2026-01-29 @ Kentucky St. W 99 - 71
2026-01-31 @ Central St. (OH) L 86 - 93
2026-02-03 vs LeMoyne-Owen W 68 - 49
2026-02-05 vs Spring Hill W 78 - 62
2026-02-07 vs Albany St. (GA) L 66 - 67

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Keshawn Evans - 24 33.5 15.5 10.0 1.4 1.8 0.3 2.1 8.1 18.8 14 0.7 3.0 60.8 31.4 74.6 2.51 69.5 63.7
Amari Floyd - 6 32.2 13.7 4.8 2.2 1.5 0.5 2.2 10.3 10.2 -14 -2.0 -10.3 61.3 31.2 50.0 0.64 65.2 65.3
Jaelen Nelson - 24 30.1 11.8 3.7 1.9 1.0 0.5 2.2 10.0 6.5 36 1.7 8.3 41.2 36.2 76.4 2.58 53.4 50.0
Cyrus Huggard-Noel - 24 24.7 9.5 4.2 1.7 0.9 0.9 2.5 8.0 6.8 13 0.6 4.6 45.0 33.3 48.7 -2.22 50.8 50.0
Jayvon Johnson - 20 23.4 7.3 3.8 2.5 1.8 0.3 2.4 5.8 7.5 19 1.0 7.7 44.4 25.9 74.5 -0.05 53.0 47.4
Cameran Oates - 3 24.6 7.3 2.7 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.7 7.7 3.7 17 5.7 11.5 34.8 16.7 71.4 0.55 42.2 37.0
Gabe Guilford - 24 24.7 7.2 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 1.5 5.8 3.6 -39 -1.9 -12.9 36.7 30.5 90.4 1.12 53.7 45.7
Amayoa'ah Phillips - 19 20.8 6.8 2.6 1.3 1.4 0.0 2.0 6.5 3.6 -4 -0.2 -1.3 42.3 28.0 54.5 -0.14 46.9 45.1
Jahlil Green - 23 16.6 5.2 3.6 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.9 5.0 5.0 2 0.1 1.0 38.3 0 72.7 1.11 44.7 38.3
Joshua Goode - 12 23.9 4.8 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 2.3 5.2 2.3 5 0.4 28.6 25.8 33.3 62.5 0.16 38.1 30.6
X'Zavion McCoy - 2 17.2 4.0 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.5 32 16.0 37.2 28.6 50.0 60.0 3.19 43.5 35.7
Myles Hosten - 7 16.9 3.7 3.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 1.3 4.3 2.1 - - - 36.7 0.0 100.0 - 40.9 36.7
Carter Von Hankerson - 20 7.7 2.5 1.9 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.8 2.4 2.0 -15 -0.9 -18.3 46.8 0 38.9 -0.49 46.4 46.8
Tyrone Barbee - 2 12.1 2.5 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.0 7 3.5 11.6 50.0 50.0 0.0 -0.19 56.3 62.5
Kyle White - 10 3.6 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.5 -1.5 -34 -4.2 -148.4 6.7 9.1 33.3 -1.1 12.3 10.0
Anthony Jones - 2 2.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 -0.72 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG