Denison
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1109 (#92) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1146 (#73) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1116 (#69) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +4.0 (#74) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.6 (#307) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.722 (#335) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.868 (#15) | NetEff +17.5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.683 (#288) | AdjNet +6.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.678 (#287) | AdjNet +6.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.603 (#290) | AdjO 74.8 | AdjD 70.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.618 (#183) | AdjO 75.8 | AdjD 70.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.645 (#265) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.650 (#259) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1196 (#70) | RD 95 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Calvin | W | 61 - 59 |
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Alma | W | 88 - 66 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ | Carnegie Mellon | L | 87 - 90 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Capital | L | 67 - 78 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Otterbein | W | 72 - 68 |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | Adrian | W | 86 - 73 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Oberlin | W | 63 - 55 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Lynchburg | W | 83 - 74 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | TCNJ | L | 66 - 76 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Chris. Newport | L | 73 - 79 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Ohio Wesleyan | W | 65 - 60 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Kenyon | W | 75 - 62 |
| 2026-01-07 | @ | Wabash | L | 59 - 64 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Wittenberg | W | 70 - 65 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | DePauw | W | 78 - 69 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | John Carroll | L | 75 - 89 |
| 2026-01-21 | vs | Wooster | W | 80 - 59 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Oberlin | W | 81 - 68 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Kenyon | W | 81 - 69 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Wabash | W | 91 - 84 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Wittenberg | L | 57 - 71 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Reed | - | 6 | 22.7 | 14.5 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 11.8 | 9.5 | -10 | -1.7 | -10.9 | 39.4 | 32.3 | 67.7 | 0.38 | 51.4 | 46.5 |
| Kellon Smith | - | 21 | 24.6 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 21 | 1.0 | 5.1 | 48.4 | 26.0 | 82.8 | 2.24 | 59.3 | 51.8 |
| Nick Heath | - | 21 | 21.9 | 11.7 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 5.7 | -17 | -0.8 | -5.1 | 45.9 | 47.0 | 75.0 | -0.91 | 64.3 | 61.9 |
| Liam Taylor | - | 21 | 21.7 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 68 | 3.2 | 19.2 | 45.3 | 35.5 | 78.8 | 1.58 | 56.1 | 53.2 |
| Lucas Dickinson | - | 8 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 59.0 | 41.7 | 58.8 | 0.33 | 65.6 | 65.4 |
| Ellis Appiah | - | 19 | 18.4 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 43 | 2.3 | 15.2 | 45.8 | 42.9 | 89.3 | -1.57 | 57.7 | 52.1 |
| Owen Giannoulias | - | 21 | 22.7 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 40 | 1.9 | 12.0 | 40.3 | 16.3 | 67.7 | 0.39 | 46.1 | 42.9 |
| Luke Salkowski | - | 20 | 22.4 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 10.1 | 83 | 4.2 | 26.5 | 51.7 | 0 | 56.1 | 3.03 | 54.3 | 51.7 |
| Aidan King | - | 21 | 23.1 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 5.7 | -81 | -3.9 | -27.8 | 35.4 | 30.0 | 54.2 | -1.76 | 44.8 | 43.5 |
| Jack Steinbach | - | 21 | 17.5 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 12 | 0.6 | 4.8 | 38.9 | 27.6 | 72.2 | 1.54 | 51.2 | 44.4 |
| Samson Zach | - | 19 | 15.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 17 | 8.5 | 21.2 | 30.6 | 34.8 | 66.7 | 0.52 | 44.0 | 41.7 |
| Tyler Martin | - | 13 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 14 | 1.1 | 23.0 | 19.0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | -0.76 | 27.4 | 26.2 |
| Andrew McDowell | - | 3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 7 | 3.5 | 147.4 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.39 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Cole Croce | - | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6 | 3.0 | 232.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.53 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Rubin | - | 4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 10 | 2.5 | 103.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.33 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Miles Barger | - | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -2 | -2.0 | -77.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.53 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG