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Delta St.

Also known as: Delta St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1004 (#262) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1053 (#187) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1032 (#192) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +5.4 (#116) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +6.2 (#262) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.427 (#389) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +1.5 More → 0.549 (#262) NetEff +1.5
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -9.6 More → 0.218 (#358) NetEff -9.6
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +10.9 More → 0.777 (#283) AdjNet +10.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +11.2 More → 0.789 (#285) AdjNet +11.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 63.7 | AdjD 56.1 More → 0.665 (#279) AdjO 63.7 | AdjD 56.1
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 61.9 | AdjD 59.3 More → 0.560 (#225) AdjO 61.9 | AdjD 59.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.633 (#246) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.622 (#250) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 25 More → 1034 (#223) RD 98 | GP 25

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-05 vs Felician W 66 - 55
2025-11-07 @ Louisiana W 76 - 68
2025-11-14 @ Jamestown L 49 - 63
2025-11-14 @ Miles L 61 - 69
2025-11-18 @ Mary L 54 - 81
2025-11-18 vs Southern Ark. W 56 - 52
2025-11-22 vs Ark.-Monticello W 61 - 57
2025-11-25 @ Arkansas Tech L 75 - 77
2025-11-29 @ Harding L 49 - 64
2025-12-04 vs Union (TN) W 67 - 62
2025-12-06 vs Christian Brothers W 56 - 48
2025-12-11 @ Montevallo W 65 - 49
2025-12-14 @ AUM W 64 - 48
2025-12-20 vs UAH L 60 - 76
2026-01-02 @ West Florida L 63 - 64
2026-01-10 vs Lee L 46 - 50
2026-01-17 @ Mississippi Col. L 62 - 69
2026-01-22 @ Christian Brothers W 71 - 35
2026-01-29 vs AUM W 81 - 62
2026-01-31 vs Montevallo W 57 - 49
2026-02-05 @ UAH L 45 - 83
2026-02-07 @ West Ala. W 74 - 71

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Amya Scott - 1 22.7 18.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 11.0 7.0 - - - 72.7 100.0 0.0 - 70.5 81.8
Tayte Kohn - 1 22.0 14.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 10.0 - - - 50.0 66.7 100.0 - 64.3 60.0
Mahogany Cottingham - 1 29.8 12.0 6.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 10.0 10.0 - - - 30.0 0.0 75.0 - 44.4 30.0
Jariyah Williamson - 19 26.7 11.8 5.2 2.6 1.3 0.1 2.3 11.3 7.3 18 0.9 3.9 35.3 30.3 75.0 1.4 46.7 42.3
Nevaeh Reaves - 1 22.3 10.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 7.0 1 0.1 0.3 57.1 50.0 0 2.08 71.4 71.4
J'ell Garfield - 2 26.8 10.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 8.5 4.5 - - - 41.2 71.4 50.0 - 55.9 55.9
Kaylin Garza - 1 28.3 9.0 3.0 1.0 3.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 1.0 - - - 30.0 40.0 100.0 - 43.1 40.0
Olivia Allen - 19 25.3 8.3 2.3 1.6 1.6 0.0 1.7 7.7 4.4 0 0.0 0.0 38.4 31.1 72.1 -0.86 47.6 43.2
Dakiya Toney - 19 23.2 7.9 6.4 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.7 8.2 6.6 25 1.0 5.7 40.4 0.0 51.0 -1.85 42.5 40.4
Kaitlyn Adams - 1 19.2 7.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 8.0 - - - 66.7 0.0 75.0 - 73.5 66.7
Kyrie Alldredge - 2 23.1 6.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.0 2.5 5.0 3.0 - - - 40.0 66.7 75.0 - 55.3 50.0
Ericka Huggins - 1 26.3 6.0 14.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 6.0 16.0 - - - 33.3 0.0 100.0 - 43.6 33.3
Brae Eneboe - 2 19.6 6.0 3.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 6.5 1.0 - - - 38.5 0 50.0 - 40.7 38.5
Madi Kate Vuncannon - 19 26.5 5.9 1.9 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.8 5.5 3.3 -29 -1.2 -6.6 33.7 34.7 63.6 -0.6 51.5 50.5
Kennedee Shelton - 17 18.6 5.6 2.9 0.9 0.7 0.2 1.2 4.7 4.4 -4 -0.2 -1.5 45.0 25.0 54.3 -0.86 50.3 48.1
Bramyia Johnson - 19 13.7 5.4 2.7 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.8 4.8 3.5 25 1.2 9.0 40.2 31.7 71.4 1.12 50.4 47.3
Alyse Holliman - 19 15.6 4.9 4.0 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.8 3.6 6.1 2 0.1 0.8 51.5 0 46.9 1.55 51.9 51.5
Makena Hauge - 2 19.1 4.5 4.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.5 6.5 3.5 - - - 23.1 40.0 50.0 - 32.4 30.8
Daniela Gintere - 18 15.1 4.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.8 3.7 2.4 30 1.4 15.0 40.3 35.3 83.3 -0.71 52.6 49.3
Channing Williams - 1 9.6 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 28 1.6 16.1 33.3 0.0 33.3 1.86 35.5 33.3
Zyan Reynolds - 1 25.7 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 3.0 - - - 40.0 0 0 - 40.0 40.0
Allie Kohn - 2 27.2 4.0 5.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.5 5.5 3.0 - - - 18.2 20.0 50.0 - 29.3 22.7
Jada Clarkson - 2 26.7 4.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.5 3.5 5.5 3.5 - - - 9.1 0.0 75.0 - 27.5 9.1
Bailey Featherstone - 12 8.7 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.6 3.4 1.6 58 4.5 94.4 43.9 75.0 60.0 -0.56 49.6 47.6
Ava Robinson - 2 7.5 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.0 221 10.0 39.2 60.0 33.3 0 4.77 70.0 70.0
Adyson Roberts - 19 13.7 2.9 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.2 1.1 3.5 2.7 31 1.5 11.5 31.3 19.2 56.2 0.56 37.8 35.1
Anna Cera - 19 15.7 2.3 1.1 1.6 0.7 0.0 1.5 2.8 1.3 -12 -0.5 -4.4 31.5 17.6 63.6 -1.43 37.4 34.3
JNyria Kelly - 15 7.5 2.2 2.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 2.7 1.6 -8 -0.6 -3.6 37.5 0 50.0 1.05 38.7 37.5
Liliana Harrison - 1 7.2 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 - - - 50.0 0 0.0 - 21.6 50.0
Layla Burton - 1 1.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 - - - 0.0 0 100.0 - 53.2 0.0
Nykesha Sanders - 1 33.7 1.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 - - - 0 0 50.0 - 56.8 0
Dylan Stedillie - 2 10.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 0.0 - - - 0.0 0.0 100.0 - 17.0 0.0
Karson Tempel - 2 4.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 - - - 0 0 50.0 - 56.8 0
Toni Smith - 1 1.7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 20 1.7 15.9 0 0 0 2.49 0 0
Sandie Friday - 1 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Celicia Enos - 1 6.9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Saide Stevenson - 1 5.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Izzy Kelly - 1 4.7 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG