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Dayton Flyers

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016
Also known as: Dayton
Program History

2026 Team Stats (28 games)

66.6
PPG
67.2
Opp
-0.6
Margin
43.5%
FG%
30.8%
3P%
67.9%
FT%
38.6
RPG
11.5
APG
18.3
TO
82.3
Pace
68.2
AdjO
68.2
AdjD
#161
Rank

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1100 (#114) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1030 (#160) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +113 elo More → 1028 (#153) HCA +113 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -0.2 (#169) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.8 More → +13.6 (#155) HCA +2.8
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.475 (#182) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -1.7 More → 0.448 (#186) NetEff -1.7
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +0.6 More → 0.516 (#162) AdjNet +0.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +0.5 More → 0.515 (#163) AdjNet +0.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 68.2 More → 0.502 (#161) AdjO 68.2 | AdjD 68.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 66.5 More → 0.545 (#177) AdjO 68.5 | AdjD 66.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.744 (#172) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.716 (#169) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 149 | GP 28 More → 1051 (#174) RD 149 | GP 28

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-06 vs Mercyhurst Lakers W 86 - 44
2025-11-11 @ Xavier Musketeers W 71 - 66
2025-11-16 vs Belmont Bruins L 66 - 72
2025-11-21 vs Canisius Golden Griffins W 61 - 52
2025-11-28 vs Butler Bulldogs L 66 - 92
2025-12-03 @ George Washington Revolutionaries L 42 - 54
2025-12-07 vs Long Island University Sharks W 81 - 72
2025-12-14 @ Purdue Boilermakers L 43 - 80
2025-12-18 @ Western Michigan Broncos W 65 - 58
2025-12-31 @ George Mason Patriots L 59 - 74
2026-01-03 vs Duquesne Dukes W 68 - 61
2026-01-07 vs Loyola Chicago Ramblers L 68 - 71
2026-01-10 @ Fordham Rams W 66 - 58
2026-01-14 vs Richmond Spiders L 67 - 85
2026-01-18 @ Saint Louis Billikens L 58 - 62
2026-01-21 @ Duquesne Dukes W 75 - 58
2026-01-25 vs Rhode Island Rams L 66 - 79
2026-01-28 vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies W 75 - 71
2026-02-01 vs George Washington Revolutionaries L 54 - 66
2026-02-04 @ La Salle Explorers W 68 - 60
2026-02-07 @ Saint Joseph's Hawks W 75 - 73
2026-02-11 vs George Mason Patriots L 61 - 72
2026-02-14 vs Saint Louis Billikens W 65 - 63
2026-02-21 @ Davidson Wildcats L 67 - 79
2026-02-25 @ Loyola Chicago Ramblers W 67 - 58
2026-02-28 vs VCU Rams W 79 - 62
2026-03-05 vs George Washington Revolutionaries W 62 - 54
2026-03-06 @ George Mason Patriots L 85 - 87

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
N. Lear N. Lear G 27 28.7 13.2 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.1 3.6 10.9 7.1 -5 -0.2 -0.3 44.9 23.9 65.6 0.13 51.1 46.8
N. Stephens N. Stephens G 27 33.8 11.5 3.5 3.6 1.0 0.0 2.5 8.7 8.4 38 1.7 2.0 48.9 37.3 80.3 3.07 58.9 54.9
O. Leung O. Leung G 28 24.5 8.9 3.3 1.5 0.8 0.1 1.9 7.4 5.2 27 1.1 1.9 38.5 33.3 72.2 0.47 51.9 47.4
A. Madol A. Madol G 28 25.5 8.0 5.4 1.1 1.3 0.2 2.5 7.4 6.0 37 1.5 2.5 38.9 27.1 79.5 1.02 49.0 45.2
F. Ibrahim F. Ibrahim C 27 20.6 7.2 6.6 0.3 0.5 1.8 2.1 4.7 9.5 21 0.9 1.4 60.9 0 61.3 1.74 62.5 60.9
M. O'Riordan M. O'Riordan F 28 20.6 7.1 5.6 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.4 6.0 7.8 14 0.6 1.1 45.5 32.6 69.6 1.39 53.1 50.0
M. Johnson M. Johnson G 22 13.0 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 4.0 1.4 19 0.8 1.7 39.1 31.6 56.2 -3.27 47.3 46.0
S. Dawkins S. Dawkins G 28 15.1 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.9 3.0 1.5 -21 -0.9 -1.7 35.7 16.7 57.1 -2.42 42.4 37.5
M.G. Talle M.G. Talle F 21 10.3 3.1 2.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.3 2.8 2.4 -37 -2.2 -7.6 41.4 11.1 58.6 -2.55 46.6 42.2
J. Johnson J. Johnson G 25 16.6 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.2 23 3.8 50.7 32.5 35.6 42.9 1.03 45.7 45.6
J. Poole J. Poole G 1 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 -3 -1.5 -3.2 50.0 0.0 0 0.9 50.0 50.0
E. Monyek E. Monyek G 4 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 5 1.2 39.7 40.0 0.0 0 0.95 40.0 40.0
K. Grant K. Grant G 10 4.8 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 -12 -12.0 -79.8 27.3 50.0 100.0 0.29 37.9 31.8

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG