🐻⬇️🏀

DBU

Also known as: DBU
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1236 (#1) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1242 (#19) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1177 (#22) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +25.5 (#4) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +19.4 (#63) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.883 (#131) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +62.1 More → 0.999 (#25) NetEff +62.1
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +29.4 More → 0.968 (#56) AdjNet +29.4
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +28.2 More → 0.964 (#64) AdjNet +28.2
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 92.1 | AdjD 70.2 More → 0.880 (#61) AdjO 92.1 | AdjD 70.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 83.1 | AdjD 67.4 More → 0.807 (#16) AdjO 83.1 | AdjD 67.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.880 (#20) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.873 (#18) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 98 | GP 24 More → 1259 (#24) RD 98 | GP 24

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-01 @ Michigan Tech L 70 - 75
2025-11-02 @ Washburn L 77 - 89
2025-11-14 vs Colorado Mesa L 77 - 78
2025-11-15 vs Colo. Christian W 90 - 51
2025-11-20 @ Arkansas Tech W 80 - 67
2025-11-22 vs St. Edward's L 70 - 73
2025-11-28 vs Adams St. W 113 - 60
2025-11-29 vs Southern Ark. W 99 - 85
2025-12-06 @ Tex. A&M Int'l W 72 - 59
2025-12-11 vs St. Mary's (TX) W 73 - 67
2025-12-16 @ Rogers St. W 79 - 69
2025-12-17 vs Mo.-St. Louis W 81 - 77
2026-01-10 vs Western N.M. W 74 - 62
2026-01-15 @ St. Mary's (TX) L 64 - 66
2026-01-17 @ St. Edward's W 75 - 68
2026-01-22 vs Midwestern St. W 84 - 60
2026-01-24 vs Lubbock Christian W 80 - 75
2026-01-29 @ Eastern N.M. L 73 - 76
2026-01-31 @ West Tex. A&M W 86 - 84
2026-02-05 vs UT Tyler W 90 - 79

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Bishop Jones - 11 15.7 10.9 3.6 0.1 1.3 0.6 1.0 7.6 7.9 60 6.0 50.4 51.2 100.0 46.5 0.28 52.1 51.8
Drew Calderon - 20 24.2 10.8 2.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 1.1 7.8 6.3 31 1.3 7.5 40.1 40.0 75.5 -3.42 59.9 56.1
TJ Thomas - 20 20.1 10.3 2.2 1.5 1.4 0.1 1.8 7.5 6.2 78 3.4 22.9 44.3 36.5 69.4 1.3 58.4 54.7
Trevor Frank - 20 21.4 9.7 2.1 1.4 2.2 0.1 1.3 9.0 5.2 86 3.7 23.5 36.1 26.4 75.6 1.74 48.7 45.0
Xavion Brown - 20 24.7 9.4 5.5 4.7 2.6 0.6 2.2 6.9 13.8 80 3.5 18.0 59.4 25.0 33.8 0.23 56.0 59.8
Jackson McCabe - 20 16.1 6.3 4.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.2 5.0 6.3 42 1.8 15.8 61.6 0.0 22.7 2.06 58.4 61.6
Cody Stevens - 20 21.9 6.3 2.4 1.0 1.6 0.1 1.3 4.5 5.5 189 8.2 51.5 40.7 34.3 83.3 4.78 59.4 53.3
Justin Haire - 19 13.2 6.0 4.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.8 3.4 7.2 54 2.5 23.9 56.9 16.7 76.5 2.11 65.2 57.7
AJ Borden - 20 18.4 5.5 3.5 2.5 0.7 0.1 1.9 4.3 6.2 70 3.0 20.4 40.7 14.3 53.4 2.47 47.0 41.9
Jaden Shelvin - 20 21.3 5.0 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.9 4.8 5.0 5 0.2 1.4 39.6 29.7 56.5 1.72 47.1 45.3
Daniel Figueira - 12 5.9 4.2 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.2 3.6 1.5 -11 -0.7 -14.8 39.5 41.2 75.0 -0.37 57.0 55.8
Junior Goodlet - 9 10.8 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 3.9 1.6 44 3.7 43.3 40.0 25.0 50.0 1.0 42.8 41.4
Braeden Pitts - 6 6.0 2.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 -8 -0.8 -22.2 60.0 66.7 85.7 -0.79 86.6 80.0
Isaiah Dozier - 4 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.2 -4 -0.6 -19.1 75.0 0 50.0 0.43 71.7 75.0
Jerrin Canafax - 5 4.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 -16 -1.8 -49.2 0.0 0.0 0 -0.08 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG