Covenant
Model Outputs
2024-2025
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 967 (#326) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 894 (#394) | - |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -16.1 (#349) | HCA +2.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.227 (#648) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.166 (#457) | NetEff -14.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.078 (#666) | AdjNet -21.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.076 (#664) | AdjNet -21.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.175 (#676) | AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 92.0 |
2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-08 | vs | Oglethorpe | L | 94 - 99 |
| 2024-11-09 | @ | Sewanee | L | 94 - 122 |
| 2024-11-22 | vs | Rhodes | L | 79 - 85 |
| 2024-11-23 | vs | Greenville | L | 96 - 118 |
| 2024-11-26 | vs | Berry | L | 80 - 96 |
| 2024-12-03 | vs | Welch | W | 109 - 99 |
| 2024-12-06 | vs | Bob Jones | W | 96 - 84 |
| 2024-12-07 | vs | Toccoa Falls | W | 94 - 84 |
| 2024-12-11 | vs | Sewanee | L | 87 - 118 |
| 2024-12-12 | @ | JWU (Charlotte) | W | 92 - 88 |
| 2025-01-04 | @ | Warren Wilson | W | 113 - 89 |
| 2025-01-09 | vs | LaGrange | W | 86 - 84 |
| 2025-01-14 | vs | Huntingdon | L | 74 - 103 |
| 2025-01-16 | vs | Belhaven | L | 92 - 96 |
| 2025-01-21 | @ | Piedmont | W | 92 - 91 |
| 2025-01-28 | @ | Maryville (TN) | L | 82 - 105 |
| 2025-01-30 | @ | Welch | L | 88 - 90 |
| 2025-02-04 | vs | Asbury | L | 96 - 99 |
| 2025-02-08 | @ | Belhaven | L | 80 - 103 |
| 2025-02-11 | vs | Piedmont | W | 97 - 85 |
| 2025-02-15 | @ | Huntingdon | L | 94 - 129 |
| 2025-02-18 | vs | Maryville (TN) | L | 86 - 107 |
| 2025-02-20 | @ | Asbury | L | 69 - 92 |
| 2025-02-22 | @ | LaGrange | W | 99 - 93 |
| 2025-02-26 | @ | Asbury | L | 83 - 97 |
2025 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Patterson | - | 25 | 19.6 | 14.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 12.5 | 6.1 | -18 | -0.9 | -3.7 | 39.1 | 33.0 | 63.8 | 0.44 | 51.8 | 48.7 |
| Pierce Smith | - | 24 | 19.0 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 7.6 | 13.6 | -41 | -1.9 | -5.3 | 56.3 | 0.0 | 47.5 | 0.13 | 55.8 | 56.3 |
| Luuk Dusek | - | 25 | 15.9 | 10.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 7.8 | 6.2 | -47 | -4.3 | -16.5 | 45.4 | 39.6 | 82.5 | -0.19 | 62.9 | 60.1 |
| Adam Deininger | - | 22 | 17.1 | 9.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 8.0 | 4.1 | -63 | -5.2 | -8.8 | 38.4 | 38.0 | 85.0 | 0.41 | 55.7 | 53.7 |
| Kaleb Lofton | - | 24 | 16.3 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 6.9 | 5.5 | -86 | -5.7 | -14.3 | 48.2 | 28.1 | 37.5 | -0.68 | 50.0 | 50.9 |
| Fisher Mitchell | - | 25 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 7.0 | 5.5 | -60 | -3.5 | -23.9 | 36.2 | 32.3 | 64.5 | -0.23 | 47.4 | 45.4 |
| Colt Donley | - | 23 | 15.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | -68 | -3.8 | -15.5 | 32.1 | 15.7 | 73.3 | -0.33 | 42.7 | 35.0 |
| Jake Stephens | - | 25 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 9 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 54.8 | 30.8 | 75.6 | 0.66 | 62.2 | 57.1 |
| Ethan Parker | - | 25 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | -4 | -0.3 | -1.9 | 39.5 | 28.9 | 70.6 | 0.15 | 49.2 | 46.3 |
| Derrius Teagle | - | 14 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 3.9 | -46 | -3.8 | -82.3 | 55.9 | 60.0 | 35.7 | -0.27 | 57.3 | 60.3 |
| Russell Hunter | - | 23 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 3.7 | -29 | -2.9 | -10.5 | 37.7 | 23.1 | 71.4 | 0.04 | 47.2 | 44.2 |
| Korbin Long | - | 6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | -12 | -2.4 | -13.1 | 44.4 | 50.0 | 0 | -0.03 | 47.2 | 47.2 |
| Zak Thomas | - | 23 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | -17 | -2.8 | -25.3 | 26.9 | 26.9 | 76.0 | -0.26 | 39.7 | 32.1 |
| Reece Pride | - | 24 | 9.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | -45 | -5.0 | -19.1 | 37.5 | 50.0 | 29.4 | 0.0 | 37.9 | 38.5 |
| Zach Wescher | - | 24 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 7 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 40.0 | 13.3 | 71.4 | -0.06 | 52.2 | 43.3 |
| Thomas Malcolm | - | 24 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | -17 | -2.8 | -14.9 | 35.4 | 12.5 | 57.1 | -0.02 | 38.2 | 36.5 |
| Cole Carroll | - | 23 | 7.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.9 | -5 | -0.4 | -2.8 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 45.8 | 0.24 | 47.4 | 45.0 |
| Gus Hood | - | 11 | 11.5 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4.8 | -36 | -9.0 | -12.1 | 35.3 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 0.2 | 36.5 | 35.3 |
| James White | - | 24 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | -33 | -5.5 | -21.9 | 32.4 | 30.0 | 33.3 | 0.05 | 36.6 | 36.5 |
| Isaac Rorey | - | 10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG