Covenant
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 950 (#464) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 841 (#554) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 951 (#603) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -12.7 (#376) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -11.8 (#558) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.227 (#648) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.078 (#666) | AdjNet -21.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.076 (#664) | AdjNet -21.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.175 (#676) | AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 92.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.389 (#591) | AdjO 83.7 | AdjD 88.7 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.263 (#616) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.288 (#599) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 855 (#513) | RD 105 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | St. John Fisher | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Hilbert | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-14 | @ | Spalding | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Sewanee | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-18 | @ | Berry | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Centre | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Oglethorpe | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-05 | @ | East Tex. Baptist | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | vs | JWU Charlotte | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-10 | vs | Sewanee | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-02 | @ | LaGrange | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Huntingdon | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-06 | @ | Asbury | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Welch | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-16 | vs | Belhaven | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Piedmont | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-20 | vs | Maryville (TN) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Bob Jones | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-23 | vs | Warren Wilson | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Asbury | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Huntingdon | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-03 | @ | Maryville (TN) | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Colton | - | 1 | 17.0 | 30.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 12.0 | 21.0 | 54 | 4.2 | 24.9 | 83.3 | 90.9 | 0 | 2.56 | 125.0 | 125.0 |
| Tyler Mallory | - | 1 | 26.0 | 23.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 17.0 | 14.0 | 113 | 8.1 | 47.2 | 58.8 | 20.0 | 66.7 | 5.26 | 62.8 | 61.8 |
| Logan Patterson | - | 20 | 25.0 | 16.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 13.2 | 9.2 | -70 | -3.5 | -28.3 | 41.1 | 32.5 | 62.4 | -0.63 | 53.3 | 50.4 |
| Andersen Madyun | - | 1 | 17.0 | 16.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 17.0 | 30 | 2.0 | 11.3 | 100.0 | 0 | 57.1 | 1.41 | 88.1 | 100.0 |
| Pierce Smith | - | 19 | 24.7 | 15.1 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 9.8 | 16.6 | -69 | -3.5 | -27.6 | 57.8 | 0.0 | 56.5 | 0.55 | 59.2 | 57.8 |
| Micah McAllister | - | 1 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 132 | 8.2 | 40.6 | 55.6 | 50.0 | 75.0 | 1.38 | 69.7 | 66.7 |
| Keyshawn Dickey | - | 1 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 15 | 1.4 | 9.2 | 60.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 1.33 | 65.0 | 65.0 |
| Kani Rashied-Henry | - | 1 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 16.0 | 58 | 4.1 | 19.2 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 1.68 | 75.4 | 75.0 |
| Parker Gonzalez | - | 1 | 17.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 80.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.9 | 85.0 | 80.0 |
| Isaiah Knight | - | 1 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | -28 | -2.5 | -92.8 | 50.0 | 40.0 | 0 | -1.44 | 62.5 | 62.5 |
| Korbin Long | - | 19 | 23.6 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 8.2 | -14 | -0.7 | -6.4 | 43.4 | 20.5 | 72.1 | 0.92 | 52.7 | 46.3 |
| Myles Murphy | - | 1 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 29 | 1.8 | 10.8 | 36.4 | 33.3 | 0 | 0.14 | 40.9 | 40.9 |
| Jake Stephens | - | 20 | 16.6 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 2 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 46.5 | 32.4 | 71.2 | 1.64 | 57.2 | 51.8 |
| Zyon Heath | - | 1 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | -26 | -3.7 | -64.6 | 100.0 | 0 | 75.0 | -2.92 | 93.1 | 100.0 |
| Noah Pence | - | 20 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 6.1 | 2.0 | -18 | -0.9 | -19.0 | 39.3 | 27.6 | 70.8 | 2.75 | 51.7 | 49.2 |
| Luuk Dusek | - | 20 | 15.3 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 4.8 | 4.2 | -15 | -0.8 | -13.8 | 43.3 | 42.0 | 72.7 | -0.03 | 60.5 | 58.2 |
| Fisher Mitchell | - | 20 | 14.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 5.8 | 4.0 | -56 | -2.8 | -42.2 | 37.6 | 29.2 | 50.0 | -0.21 | 47.4 | 46.6 |
| Marcus Townsend | - | 1 | 19.0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 23 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 66.7 | -0.36 | 41.0 | 33.3 |
| Bolton Born | - | 17 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 3.5 | 4.4 | -12 | -0.7 | -14.7 | 58.3 | 45.0 | 77.8 | -0.29 | 67.2 | 65.8 |
| Myles Johnson | - | 1 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 0.0 | -1.54 | 64.4 | 83.3 |
| Owen LaRocca | - | 1 | 18.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -4 | -0.2 | -1.6 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 100.0 | -2.09 | 64.4 | 50.0 |
| Eric Moore | - | 1 | 17.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | -13 | -0.9 | -6.9 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.31 | 42.5 | 40.0 |
| Derrius Teagle | - | 20 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 4.1 | -67 | -3.4 | -68.7 | 53.3 | 25.0 | 68.8 | -1.6 | 59.7 | 58.0 |
| Ethan Parker | - | 20 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 3.0 | -63 | -3.1 | -45.0 | 39.5 | 34.2 | 54.5 | -2.52 | 49.6 | 48.0 |
| Isaac Rorey | - | 20 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -50 | -2.6 | -40.3 | 43.2 | 36.4 | 56.2 | -2.87 | 50.0 | 48.6 |
| Catfish Battle | - | 1 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -53 | -4.1 | -57.4 | 66.7 | 0.0 | 0 | -6.22 | 66.7 | 66.7 |
| Thomas Malcolm | - | 18 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 3.4 | -44 | -2.3 | -47.4 | 58.1 | 50.0 | 91.7 | -0.83 | 68.4 | 64.0 |
| Ford Barnes | - | 1 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | -12 | -2.0 | -39.8 | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.61 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Trenton Dillard | - | 1 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -8 | -0.5 | -3.6 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | -0.34 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Jeremy Autin | - | 1 | 18.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 10 | 0.7 | 5.1 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.31 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Jonathon Page | - | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.17 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Kendall Smith | - | 1 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 25 | 2.3 | 21.8 | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | 1.33 | 113.6 | 0 |
| Zach Wescher | - | 7 | 8.2 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 0.3 | 10.8 | 16.7 | 25.0 | 77.8 | -0.19 | 40.7 | 25.0 |
| Cole Carroll | - | 20 | 9.3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.0 | -93 | -4.9 | -90.0 | 30.4 | 12.5 | 58.3 | -4.59 | 38.9 | 32.6 |
| Lucas Bryant | - | 11 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.96 | 30.7 | 25.0 |
| James White | - | 13 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -25 | -1.7 | -122.2 | 30.0 | 0 | 0 | -2.68 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| Blake Batts | - | 12 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 14 | 1.4 | 125.8 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 1.6 | 14.8 | 12.5 |
| Gus Hood | - | 19 | 5.6 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 0.3 | 13.7 | 22.2 | 20.0 | 75.0 | 2.02 | 37.2 | 27.8 |
| Luke Deininger | - | 10 | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 3 | 0.3 | 23.3 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| Chadan Hamiliton | - | 1 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 14 | 1.8 | 49.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.12 | 0 | 0 |
| Jace Herrell | - | 1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 87 | 5.4 | 40.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.82 | 0 | 0 |
| Amarian Griffin | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Sam Hailey | - | 1 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | -14 | -1.6 | -228.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.94 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Greg Johnson | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.24 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Lindsey | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Murphy | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 62 | 3.1 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.33 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CJ Scott | - | 1 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1 | 0.5 | 15.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Skyler Stovall | - | 1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 34 | 2.8 | 28.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.86 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| A.J. Taylor | - | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 0.7 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG