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Covenant

Season: 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016
Also known as: Covenant
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 903 (#529) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 815 (#577) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +56 elo More → 951 (#603) HCA +56 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -13.9 (#296) HCA +2.3
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.0 More → -11.8 (#558) HCA +3.0
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.227 (#648) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -21.3 More → 0.078 (#666) AdjNet -21.3
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -21.4 More → 0.076 (#664) AdjNet -21.4
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 92.0 More → 0.175 (#676) AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 92.0
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 83.7 | AdjD 88.7 More → 0.389 (#591) AdjO 83.7 | AdjD 88.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.263 (#616) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.288 (#599) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 105 | GP 22 More → 858 (#520) RD 105 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 @ St. John Fisher L 83 - 87
2025-11-08 @ Hilbert L 99 - 111
2025-11-14 @ Spalding L 83 - 86
2025-11-15 @ Sewanee W 110 - 109
2025-11-18 @ Berry L 88 - 97
2025-11-21 vs Centre L 108 - 112
2025-11-22 vs Oglethorpe L 91 - 108
2025-12-05 @ East Tex. Baptist L 78 - 87
2025-12-06 vs JWU Charlotte L 98 - 107
2025-12-10 vs Sewanee W 98 - 88
2026-01-02 @ LaGrange L 93 - 128
2026-01-03 @ Huntingdon L 80 - 98
2026-01-06 @ Asbury W 94 - 83
2026-01-10 @ Welch W 102 - 87
2026-01-16 vs Belhaven L 78 - 87
2026-01-17 vs Piedmont W 94 - 80
2026-01-20 vs Maryville (TN) L 84 - 96
2026-01-21 @ Bob Jones W 96 - 90
2026-01-23 vs Warren Wilson W 96 - 69
2026-01-30 vs Asbury L 88 - 91
2026-01-31 vs Huntingdon W 96 - 90
2026-02-03 @ Maryville (TN) L 73 - 98

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Austen Colton - 1 17.0 30.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 12.0 21.0 54 4.2 24.9 83.3 90.9 0 2.47 125.0 125.0
Tyler Mallory - 1 26.0 23.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 0.0 3.0 17.0 14.0 113 8.1 47.2 58.8 20.0 66.7 1.33 62.8 61.8
Logan Patterson - 20 25.0 16.4 3.2 2.2 2.0 0.1 1.6 13.2 9.2 -70 -3.5 -28.3 41.1 32.5 62.4 -1.01 53.3 50.4
Andersen Madyun - 1 17.0 16.0 7.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 17.0 30 2.0 11.3 100.0 0 57.1 -0.66 88.1 100.0
Pierce Smith - 19 24.7 15.1 8.2 1.6 0.9 3.3 2.6 9.8 16.6 -69 -3.5 -27.6 57.8 0.0 56.5 -0.24 59.2 57.8
Micah McAllister - 1 15.0 15.0 4.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 9.0 13.0 132 8.2 40.6 55.6 50.0 75.0 0.42 69.7 66.7
Keyshawn Dickey - 1 18.0 13.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 10.0 9.0 15 1.4 9.2 60.0 25.0 0 0.99 65.0 65.0
Kani Rashied-Henry - 1 21.0 12.0 9.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 16.0 58 4.1 19.2 75.0 0.0 66.7 5.83 75.4 75.0
Parker Gonzalez - 1 17.0 10.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 6.0 -1 -0.1 -0.5 80.0 0 100.0 -0.06 85.0 80.0
Isaiah Knight - 1 13.0 10.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 6.0 -28 -2.5 -92.8 50.0 40.0 0 -0.22 62.5 62.5
Korbin Long - 19 23.6 9.2 3.3 3.8 1.5 0.0 2.5 7.2 8.2 -14 -0.7 -6.4 43.4 20.5 72.1 1.22 52.7 46.3
Myles Murphy - 1 16.0 9.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 6.0 29 1.8 10.8 36.4 33.3 0 0.77 40.9 40.9
Jake Stephens - 20 16.6 8.0 3.6 1.1 1.2 0.2 1.2 5.7 7.2 2 0.1 1.4 46.5 32.4 71.2 -1.94 57.2 51.8
Zyon Heath - 1 9.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 7.0 -26 -3.7 -64.6 100.0 0 75.0 -2.81 93.1 100.0
Noah Pence - 20 9.3 6.8 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.9 6.1 2.0 -18 -0.9 -19.0 39.3 27.6 70.8 2.4 51.7 49.2
Luuk Dusek - 20 15.3 6.5 2.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.7 4.8 4.2 -15 -0.8 -13.8 43.3 42.0 72.7 -2.81 60.5 58.2
Marcus Townsend - 1 19.0 6.0 9.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 10.0 23 1.4 10.0 33.3 0.0 66.7 -1.88 41.0 33.3
Fisher Mitchell - 20 14.2 6.0 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.6 5.8 4.0 -56 -2.8 -42.2 37.6 29.2 50.0 -1.45 47.4 46.6
Bolton Born - 17 8.3 5.1 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.6 3.5 4.4 -12 -0.7 -14.7 58.3 45.0 77.8 2.61 67.2 65.8
Myles Johnson - 1 16.0 5.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 6.0 -1 -0.1 -0.7 66.7 100.0 0.0 1.8 64.4 83.3
Owen LaRocca - 1 18.0 5.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.0 -4 -0.2 -1.6 33.3 33.3 100.0 -1.33 64.4 50.0
Eric Moore - 1 17.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 5.0 4.0 -13 -0.9 -6.9 40.0 0.0 50.0 0.06 42.5 40.0
Derrius Teagle - 20 10.4 4.9 2.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.8 3.8 4.1 -67 -3.4 -68.7 53.3 25.0 68.8 -0.59 59.7 58.0
Ethan Parker - 20 11.8 4.2 1.4 0.8 1.2 0.2 1.1 3.8 3.0 -63 -3.1 -45.0 39.5 34.2 54.5 -3.22 49.6 48.0
Catfish Battle - 1 6.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 -53 -4.1 -57.4 66.7 0.0 0 -4.52 66.7 66.7
Isaac Rorey - 20 11.9 4.0 2.5 1.9 0.7 0.2 1.3 3.7 4.2 -50 -2.6 -40.3 43.2 36.4 56.2 -2.93 50.0 48.6
Thomas Malcolm - 18 8.1 3.7 2.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.1 2.4 3.4 -44 -2.3 -47.4 58.1 50.0 91.7 0.57 68.4 64.0
Ford Barnes - 1 7.0 2.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 6.0 -12 -2.0 -39.8 50.0 0 0 -1.56 50.0 50.0
Trenton Dillard - 1 12.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 4.0 -8 -0.5 -3.6 100.0 0 0 -3.0 100.0 100.0
Jeremy Autin - 1 18.0 2.0 7.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 7.0 10 0.7 5.1 25.0 0.0 0 2.31 25.0 25.0
Jonathon Page - 1 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 - - - 50.0 0.0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Kendall Smith - 1 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 25 2.3 21.8 0 0 100.0 2.24 113.6 0
Zach Wescher - 7 8.2 1.9 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.7 2 0.3 10.8 16.7 25.0 77.8 -0.61 40.7 25.0
Cole Carroll - 20 9.3 1.1 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.7 1.1 3.0 -93 -4.9 -90.0 30.4 12.5 58.3 -1.02 38.9 32.6
James White - 13 3.7 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 -25 -1.7 -122.2 30.0 0 0 -2.03 30.0 30.0
Lucas Bryant - 11 2.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 -0.1 0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 50.0 -0.14 30.7 25.0
Gus Hood - 19 5.6 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 6 0.3 13.7 22.2 20.0 75.0 1.05 37.2 27.8
Blake Batts - 12 1.7 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 -0.3 14 1.4 125.8 12.5 0.0 50.0 0.22 14.8 12.5
Luke Deininger - 10 2.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 -0.4 3 0.3 23.3 14.3 0.0 0 0.92 14.3 14.3
Chadan Hamiliton - 1 12.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 6.0 14 1.8 49.0 0 0 0 -1.67 0 0
Jace Herrell - 1 11.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 4.0 87 5.4 40.2 0 0 0 -0.04 0 0
Amarian Griffin - 1 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 - - - 0.0 0 0 - 0.0 0.0
Sam Hailey - 1 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 -14 -1.6 -228.6 0.0 0.0 0 -0.42 0.0 0.0
Greg Johnson - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 0.2 6.2 0 0 0 -2.04 0 0
Jordan Lindsey - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Jackson Murphy - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 62 3.1 12.1 0.0 0.0 0 3.12 0.0 0.0
CJ Scott - 1 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1 0.5 15.4 0 0 0 0.37 0 0
Skyler Stovall - 1 9.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 34 2.8 28.2 0.0 0 0.0 -0.13 0.0 0.0
A.J. Taylor - 1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 2 0.7 36.1 0.0 0.0 0 0.91 0.0 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG