Concordia-St. Paul
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1452 (#6) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1333 (#12) | HCA +68 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1349 (#10) | HCA +69 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +30.1 (#4) | HCA +2.6 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +30.5 (#4) | HCA +2.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.848 (#46) | - |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.899 (#5) | AdjO 79.2 | AdjD 55.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.896 (#4) | AdjO 78.7 | AdjD 55.0 |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1360 (#7) | RD 105 | GP 31 |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2025-2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Fort Hays St. | L | 78 - 84 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Missouri Western | W | 78 - 64 |
| 2025-11-20 | @ | Truman St. | W | 82 - 60 |
| 2025-11-21 | @ | Maryville (MO) | W | 81 - 69 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Winona St. | L | 75 - 77 |
| 2025-11-28 | vs | Michigan Tech | W | 78 - 61 |
| 2025-12-03 | vs | St. Cloud St. | W | 75 - 50 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Minnesota St. | L | 66 - 104 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Southwest Minn. St. | L | 67 - 70 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs | Sioux Falls | L | 77 - 79 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Augustana (SD) | W | 80 - 67 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ | Winona St. | W | 87 - 85 |
| 2026-01-10 | vs | Minn.-Crookston | W | 94 - 74 |
| 2026-01-16 | @ | Jamestown | W | 83 - 50 |
| 2026-01-17 | @ | Northern St. | W | 78 - 51 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Bemidji St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Minn. Duluth | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Minot St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Mary | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-05 | vs | Augustana (SD) | W | 80 - 56 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Wayne St. (NE) | W | 81 - 60 |
| 2026-02-12 | @ | Sioux Falls | W | 75 - 72 |
| 2026-02-14 | @ | Southwest Minn. St. | W | 57 - 51 |
| 2026-02-18 | @ | St. Cloud St. | W | 76 - 56 |
| 2026-02-21 | vs | Minnesota St. | W | 96 - 75 |
| 2026-02-28 | vs | MSU Moorhead | W | 70 - 66 |
| 2026-03-02 | vs | Minn. Duluth | W | 81 - 65 |
| 2026-03-03 | vs | Minnesota St. | W | 79 - 71 |
| 2026-03-13 | vs | Northwestern Okla. | W | 52 - 45 |
| 2026-03-14 | vs | Fort Hays St. | W | 59 - 53 |
| 2026-03-16 | vs | Minn. Duluth | L | 87 - 94 |
2025-2026 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lydia Haack | - | 31 | 35.5 | 17.7 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 13.2 | 16.0 | 344 | 30 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 46.5 | 38.4 | 78.4 | 2.48 | 57.5 | 52.3 |
| Lauren Wilson | - | 31 | 30.3 | 16.6 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 12.0 | 16.4 | 325 | 30 | 10.8 | 14.4 | 47.5 | 27.2 | 70.1 | 5.02 | 55.9 | 50.4 |
| Leah Dengerud | - | 31 | 31.8 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 305 | 30 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 40.7 | 34.5 | 83.0 | 0.72 | 55.7 | 50.5 |
| Ashley Schuelke | - | 31 | 31.1 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 324 | 30 | 10.8 | 14.0 | 41.7 | 29.5 | 73.1 | 3.88 | 49.0 | 47.6 |
| Avery Moeller | - | 31 | 20.5 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 196 | 30 | 6.5 | 13.4 | 39.2 | 37.1 | 91.5 | 0.93 | 57.9 | 52.9 |
| Emma Mommsen | - | 31 | 23.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 202 | 30 | 6.7 | 11.8 | 50.8 | 0 | 67.8 | 1.05 | 54.2 | 50.8 |
| Lauren Feddema | - | 17 | 16.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 89 | 16 | 5.6 | 12.0 | 40.3 | 35.7 | 82.4 | -0.67 | 53.9 | 50.0 |
| Ava Thompson | - | 24 | 12.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 82 | 21 | 3.9 | 12.1 | 30.4 | 31.8 | 41.7 | 1.25 | 41.1 | 40.6 |
| Ayana Bousum | - | 21 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 14 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 40.9 | 66.7 | 0 | -3.73 | 45.5 | 45.5 |
| Norah Danielson | - | 23 | 7.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 54 | 17 | 3.2 | 16.5 | 29.2 | 14.3 | 41.7 | 1.22 | 35.9 | 33.3 |
| Cassidy Pitzl | - | 15 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | -0.1 | - | - | - | - | 22.2 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 22.2 | 22.2 |
| Ella Campbell | - | 18 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 20.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | - | 37.0 | 20.0 |
| Cierra Kortan | - | 2 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -0.5 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Ella Kuhlman | - | 7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kierstin Kriewaldt | - | 16 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG