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Concordia-M'head

Also known as: Concordia-M'head
Program History

Model Outputs

2024-2025
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1040 (#147) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 996 (#269) -
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.3 More → -2.7 (#162) HCA +2.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.641 (#371) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +3.2 More → 0.590 (#243) NetEff +3.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -0.9 More → 0.475 (#363) AdjNet -0.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -1.1 More → 0.468 (#363) AdjNet -1.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 72.2 More → 0.478 (#366) AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 72.2

2025 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2024-11-12 @ Minn.-Morris W 69 - 62
2024-11-15 vs Providence-Manitoba W 83 - 41
2024-11-23 vs Wis.-Stout W 71 - 61
2024-11-26 @ UW-River Falls L 59 - 68
2024-11-29 @ Central (IA) L 66 - 78
2024-11-30 @ Neb. Wesleyan L 70 - 76
2024-12-04 @ Bethel (MN) L 57 - 60
2024-12-07 @ Gustavus Adolphus L 72 - 79
2024-12-14 @ Augsburg L 68 - 69
2024-12-20 vs Crown (MN) W 73 - 66
2024-12-29 @ Mary Hardin-Baylor L 61 - 73
2024-12-30 vs LeTourneau L 68 - 72
2025-01-04 vs Saint Mary's (MN) W 75 - 69
2025-01-11 @ St. Olaf W 82 - 56
2025-01-15 vs Saint John's (MN) L 60 - 75
2025-01-18 @ Carleton L 84 - 93
2025-01-22 vs Macalester W 71 - 56
2025-01-25 vs Gustavus Adolphus L 50 - 65
2025-02-01 vs Hamline W 69 - 63
2025-02-05 vs St. Olaf W 81 - 56
2025-02-08 @ Saint John's (MN) L 73 - 80
2025-02-12 vs Bethel (MN) W 77 - 69
2025-02-15 @ St. Scholastica W 93 - 72
2025-02-19 @ Macalester L 67 - 81
2025-02-22 vs Carleton W 82 - 73
2025-02-25 @ Hamline L 59 - 74

2025 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Rowan Nelson - 26 34.3 14.8 4.3 2.2 0.7 0.3 2.1 11.6 8.5 -41 -4.1 -7.6 45.7 35.7 66.3 0.54 55.4 52.3
Jacob Cook - 23 24.4 14.3 6.8 1.6 0.7 0.7 2.3 10.3 11.5 -21 -1.3 -5.0 54.0 39.6 74.3 0.3 61.4 58.4
Jackson Loge - 25 30.1 14.2 9.6 2.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 9.8 17.0 -18 -1.2 -3.4 54.5 11.1 65.6 0.54 58.5 54.7
Peyton Belka - 26 31.8 10.3 2.5 2.0 0.8 0.2 2.2 8.2 5.4 -27 -1.7 -4.9 37.1 36.2 83.1 0.47 54.7 48.8
Kaden Pieper - 25 18.1 5.6 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 5.8 3.7 -27 -4.5 -12.3 33.3 25.4 69.2 0.18 43.1 38.9
Erik Hedstrom - 25 14.3 3.9 3.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.9 2.3 5.5 -7 -1.8 -65.6 63.2 0 65.8 -0.91 65.8 63.2
Zach Jackson - 26 15.5 2.7 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 2.5 2.7 -29 -5.8 -12.5 35.9 32.7 87.5 0.21 51.1 48.4
Grady Guida - 24 11.2 2.6 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.5 2.8 1.9 - - - 34.3 31.9 50.0 - 45.8 45.5
Connor Engelmeyer - 21 9.2 2.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.1 - - - 31.2 30.8 66.7 - 45.4 43.8
Noah Christensen - 24 10.3 1.2 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.4 3.4 1 0.5 0.5 41.2 0.0 25.0 0.42 40.5 41.2
Erik Foster - 20 5.5 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.0 - - - 29.2 21.1 0.0 - 36.2 37.5
Justin Courneya - 19 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 - - - 22.2 22.2 85.7 - 38.0 27.8
Sam Senske - 16 2.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 - - - 28.6 12.5 100.0 - 37.0 32.1
Luke Christensen - 17 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 - - - 50.0 0 0.0 - 41.0 50.0
Cole Holzer - 17 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 - - - 25.0 0.0 100.0 - 33.8 25.0
Will Perkins - 18 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.3 - - - 14.3 16.7 0 - 21.4 21.4
Mason Gravseth - 16 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -3 -3.0 -32.0 0.0 0 50.0 -0.97 26.6 0.0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG