Concordia-M'head
Model Outputs
2024-2025
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1040 (#147) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 996 (#269) | - |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -2.7 (#162) | HCA +2.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.641 (#371) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.590 (#243) | NetEff +3.2 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.475 (#363) | AdjNet -0.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.468 (#363) | AdjNet -1.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.478 (#366) | AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 72.2 |
2025 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-12 | @ | Minn.-Morris | W | 69 - 62 |
| 2024-11-15 | vs | Providence-Manitoba | W | 83 - 41 |
| 2024-11-23 | vs | Wis.-Stout | W | 71 - 61 |
| 2024-11-26 | @ | UW-River Falls | L | 59 - 68 |
| 2024-11-29 | @ | Central (IA) | L | 66 - 78 |
| 2024-11-30 | @ | Neb. Wesleyan | L | 70 - 76 |
| 2024-12-04 | @ | Bethel (MN) | L | 57 - 60 |
| 2024-12-07 | @ | Gustavus Adolphus | L | 72 - 79 |
| 2024-12-14 | @ | Augsburg | L | 68 - 69 |
| 2024-12-20 | vs | Crown (MN) | W | 73 - 66 |
| 2024-12-29 | @ | Mary Hardin-Baylor | L | 61 - 73 |
| 2024-12-30 | vs | LeTourneau | L | 68 - 72 |
| 2025-01-04 | vs | Saint Mary's (MN) | W | 75 - 69 |
| 2025-01-11 | @ | St. Olaf | W | 82 - 56 |
| 2025-01-15 | vs | Saint John's (MN) | L | 60 - 75 |
| 2025-01-18 | @ | Carleton | L | 84 - 93 |
| 2025-01-22 | vs | Macalester | W | 71 - 56 |
| 2025-01-25 | vs | Gustavus Adolphus | L | 50 - 65 |
| 2025-02-01 | vs | Hamline | W | 69 - 63 |
| 2025-02-05 | vs | St. Olaf | W | 81 - 56 |
| 2025-02-08 | @ | Saint John's (MN) | L | 73 - 80 |
| 2025-02-12 | vs | Bethel (MN) | W | 77 - 69 |
| 2025-02-15 | @ | St. Scholastica | W | 93 - 72 |
| 2025-02-19 | @ | Macalester | L | 67 - 81 |
| 2025-02-22 | vs | Carleton | W | 82 - 73 |
| 2025-02-25 | @ | Hamline | L | 59 - 74 |
2025 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rowan Nelson | - | 26 | 34.3 | 14.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 11.6 | 8.5 | -41 | -4.1 | -7.6 | 45.7 | 35.7 | 66.3 | 0.54 | 55.4 | 52.3 |
| Jacob Cook | - | 23 | 24.4 | 14.3 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 10.3 | 11.5 | -21 | -1.3 | -5.0 | 54.0 | 39.6 | 74.3 | 0.3 | 61.4 | 58.4 |
| Jackson Loge | - | 25 | 30.1 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 9.8 | 17.0 | -18 | -1.2 | -3.4 | 54.5 | 11.1 | 65.6 | 0.54 | 58.5 | 54.7 |
| Peyton Belka | - | 26 | 31.8 | 10.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | -27 | -1.7 | -4.9 | 37.1 | 36.2 | 83.1 | 0.47 | 54.7 | 48.8 |
| Kaden Pieper | - | 25 | 18.1 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 5.8 | 3.7 | -27 | -4.5 | -12.3 | 33.3 | 25.4 | 69.2 | 0.18 | 43.1 | 38.9 |
| Erik Hedstrom | - | 25 | 14.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 5.5 | -7 | -1.8 | -65.6 | 63.2 | 0 | 65.8 | -0.91 | 65.8 | 63.2 |
| Zach Jackson | - | 26 | 15.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | -29 | -5.8 | -12.5 | 35.9 | 32.7 | 87.5 | 0.21 | 51.1 | 48.4 |
| Grady Guida | - | 24 | 11.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 1.9 | - | - | - | 34.3 | 31.9 | 50.0 | - | 45.8 | 45.5 |
| Connor Engelmeyer | - | 21 | 9.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | - | - | - | 31.2 | 30.8 | 66.7 | - | 45.4 | 43.8 |
| Noah Christensen | - | 24 | 10.3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 41.2 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 0.42 | 40.5 | 41.2 |
| Erik Foster | - | 20 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 29.2 | 21.1 | 0.0 | - | 36.2 | 37.5 |
| Justin Courneya | - | 19 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | - | - | - | 22.2 | 22.2 | 85.7 | - | 38.0 | 27.8 |
| Sam Senske | - | 16 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | - | - | - | 28.6 | 12.5 | 100.0 | - | 37.0 | 32.1 |
| Luke Christensen | - | 17 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 41.0 | 50.0 |
| Cole Holzer | - | 17 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 33.8 | 25.0 |
| Will Perkins | - | 18 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.3 | - | - | - | 14.3 | 16.7 | 0 | - | 21.4 | 21.4 |
| Mason Gravseth | - | 16 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -3 | -3.0 | -32.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.97 | 26.6 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG