Concordia-M'head
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1097 (#108) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1084 (#175) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1117 (#68) | HCA +56 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -1.7 (#145) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -0.7 (#360) | HCA +3.0 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.641 (#371) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.475 (#363) | AdjNet -0.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.468 (#363) | AdjNet -1.1 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.478 (#366) | AdjO 71.2 | AdjD 72.2 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.609 (#201) | AdjO 74.9 | AdjD 70.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.588 (#323) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.604 (#315) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1159 (#91) | RD 95 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-12 | vs | Minn.-Morris | W | 79 - 74 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | UW-River Falls | W | 78 - 64 |
| 2025-11-19 | @ | Crown (MN) | W | 71 - 55 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | North Central (MN) | W | 83 - 73 |
| 2025-12-01 | @ | Minn.-Morris | W | 83 - 69 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Saint John's (MN) | L | 65 - 82 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | St. Olaf | L | 72 - 95 |
| 2025-12-14 | @ | Luther | W | 67 - 62 |
| 2025-12-19 | vs | Oak Hills Christian | W | 75 - 53 |
| 2025-12-29 | vs | Skidmore | W | 83 - 60 |
| 2025-12-30 | @ | Guilford | L | 60 - 85 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | St. Scholastica | W | 87 - 68 |
| 2026-01-07 | @ | Carleton | L | 73 - 74 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Saint Mary's (MN) | W | 76 - 58 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Gustavus Adolphus | L | 77 - 82 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Augsburg | W | 87 - 73 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Macalester | W | 93 - 82 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Bethel (MN) | W | 79 - 74 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Saint John's (MN) | W | 71 - 69 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ | Gustavus Adolphus | L | 60 - 70 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Carleton | W | 77 - 73 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Hamline | W | 76 - 64 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Cook | - | 19 | 33.9 | 21.2 | 10.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 15.3 | 18.5 | 75 | 3.6 | 21.6 | 52.2 | 40.9 | 81.6 | 1.25 | 61.0 | 56.9 |
| Nick Burke | - | 1 | 35.7 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 16.0 | -55 | -3.1 | -11.7 | 54.5 | 0.0 | 71.4 | 1.2 | 60.4 | 54.5 |
| Kaden Pieper | - | 20 | 31.1 | 14.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 112 | 3.6 | 26.2 | 44.2 | 40.0 | 77.0 | 1.59 | 59.6 | 55.3 |
| Andre Palavra | - | 1 | 27.9 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 7.0 | -20 | -1.1 | -7.5 | 28.6 | 33.3 | 75.0 | -0.31 | 44.4 | 39.3 |
| Jackson Loge | - | 20 | 31.6 | 13.6 | 10.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 10.1 | 16.4 | 81 | 3.7 | 25.8 | 55.7 | 0 | 47.1 | -0.27 | 55.3 | 55.7 |
| Henry Kreckman | - | 1 | 27.4 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | -55 | -2.8 | -19.4 | 44.4 | 0 | 83.3 | -1.64 | 55.8 | 44.4 |
| Jack Charbonneau | - | 1 | 23.5 | 13.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | -56 | -2.9 | -16.7 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -2.86 | 73.2 | 75.0 |
| Peyton Belka | - | 20 | 35.7 | 12.2 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 66 | 3.0 | 31.5 | 37.7 | 34.3 | 85.5 | 0.92 | 54.4 | 49.2 |
| Adam Mattes | - | 1 | 16.4 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | -111 | -5.8 | -36.5 | 66.7 | 60.0 | 0 | -1.04 | 91.7 | 91.7 |
| Jay Neubert | - | 1 | 31.8 | 11.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | -50 | -3.1 | -15.5 | 30.8 | 0.0 | 75.0 | -1.4 | 37.3 | 30.8 |
| Jeremy Andera | - | 1 | 35.3 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -8 | -0.4 | -2.3 | 40.0 | 25.0 | 0 | 2.05 | 45.0 | 45.0 |
| Sam Gingras | - | 1 | 31.9 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | -28 | -1.5 | -7.3 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -0.18 | 58.3 | 58.3 |
| Blake Schmitz | - | 1 | 34.9 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | -61 | -3.6 | -15.9 | 42.9 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 4.26 | 47.0 | 42.9 |
| Owen Bockenstedt | - | 1 | 28.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | -18 | -0.9 | -5.4 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 0 | 1.03 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Jordan Hoover | - | 1 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | -16 | -1.5 | -44.6 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 0 | -0.36 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Charlie Wunderlich | - | 1 | 35.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | -28 | -1.4 | -8.4 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.62 | 33.8 | 25.0 |
| Cole Holzer | - | 19 | 16.4 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 38 | 2.1 | 30.8 | 47.9 | 37.5 | 71.4 | 0.26 | 57.3 | 52.1 |
| Caleb Rosendahl | - | 1 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | -60 | -3.2 | -26.2 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | -2.72 | 125.0 | 125.0 |
| Justin Courneya | - | 20 | 24.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 85 | 3.9 | 59.8 | 30.0 | 27.7 | 87.0 | -0.4 | 44.5 | 39.0 |
| Clint Smith | - | 1 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | -56 | -2.8 | -32.9 | 25.0 | 33.3 | 0 | -1.34 | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Yigit Yarisci | - | 1 | 16.1 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | -22 | -1.2 | -12.6 | 33.3 | 0 | 50.0 | 1.92 | 38.7 | 33.3 |
| AJ Kaul | - | 1 | 10.4 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | -45 | -2.6 | -23.7 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | 0.69 | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| Owen Poloronis | - | 1 | 9.7 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 | -63 | -3.9 | -67.1 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.14 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Erik Hedstrom | - | 17 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.7 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 25.0 | 100.0 | - | 38.5 | 34.4 |
| Will Perkins | - | 14 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Sam Senske | - | 11 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | - | - | - | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Jake Collis | - | 1 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | -17 | -1.4 | -23.6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -3.41 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Javier Rowell | - | 1 | 17.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | -3.0 | -42 | -2.1 | -16.6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -1.37 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Grady Guida | - | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Murray | - | 1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -19 | -1.5 | -25.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.03 | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG