Colorado State
Model Outputs
2003-2004
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | Historical Elo fit predates the season cutoff fix and includes an unverified participant universe. |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1385 (#108) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 948 (#230) | HCA +114 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +29.3 (#108) | HCA +3.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +2.2 (#126) | HCA +3.5 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.345 (#81) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.003 (#9) | NetEff -41.1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.422 (#74) | AdjNet -2.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.421 (#74) | AdjNet -2.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.488 (#165) | AdjO 68.9 | AdjD 69.4 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.518 (#146) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.508 (#150) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1011 (#150) | RD 131 | GP 28 |
2004 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-11-26 | N | Oklahoma State | L | 49 - 82 |
| 2003-11-29 | @ | Drake | W | 76 - 69 |
| 2003-12-01 | @ | Auburn | L | 54 - 84 |
| 2003-12-04 | vs | Texas Southern | W | 91 - 66 |
| 2003-12-06 | vs | Gardner-Webb | W | 89 - 59 |
| 2003-12-10 | vs | Colorado | L | 78 - 84 |
| 2003-12-13 | @ | Denver | L | 67 - 84 |
| 2003-12-20 | @ | Stetson | W | 79 - 70 |
| 2003-12-22 | @ | South Florida | W | 66 - 65 |
| 2003-12-30 | vs | Purdue | W | 71 - 69 |
| 2004-01-03 | N | Pepperdine | W | 91 - 65 |
| 2004-01-05 | @ | Montana State | L | 75 - 82 |
| 2004-01-12 | vs | Air Force | L | 57 - 65 |
| 2004-01-17 | @ | Brigham Young | L | 53 - 82 |
| 2004-01-19 | @ | Utah | L | 49 - 67 |
| 2004-01-24 | vs | San Diego State | W | 92 - 82 |
| 2004-01-26 | vs | Nevada–Las Vegas | W | 89 - 83 |
| 2004-01-31 | vs | Wyoming | W | 75 - 74 |
| 2004-02-07 | @ | New Mexico | L | 51 - 63 |
| 2004-02-09 | @ | Air Force | L | 44 - 52 |
| 2004-02-14 | vs | Utah | L | 70 - 80 |
| 2004-02-16 | vs | Brigham Young | L | 73 - 79 |
| 2004-02-21 | @ | Nevada–Las Vegas | L | 79 - 94 |
| 2004-02-23 | @ | San Diego State | L | 64 - 72 |
| 2004-02-28 | @ | Wyoming | L | 61 - 67 |
| 2004-03-06 | vs | New Mexico | W | 76 - 66 |
| 2004-03-11 | N | Air Force | W | 60 - 48 |
| 2004-03-12 | N | Nevada–Las Vegas | L | 73 - 80 |
2004 Roster
Minutes by Position
Not enough player minute data to plot.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Nelson | C | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Matt Williams | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Ronnie Clark | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Freddy Robinson | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Micheal Morris | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Jon Rakiecki | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dwight Boatner | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Shelton Johnson | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Phillip Thomasson | F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Stephen Verwers | C | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Derrick Stevens | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Nick Ball | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Brian Lohrey | G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG