Colorado State
2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)
66.8
PPG
56.5
Opp
+10.2
Margin
44.5%
FG%
34.6%
3P%
70.4%
FT%
33.8
RPG
9.8
APG
9.0
TO
64.4
Est. poss./game
64.3
Adj PPG
60.5
Adj Opp PPG
#95
Scoring Rank
Model Outputs
2026-2027
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1139 (#98) | Preseason prior 1217 (returning production + recruiting): last season 1104, returning -20, transfers +133, freshmen +0 |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1110 (#85) | HCA +169 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1107 (#86) | HCA +169 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.7 (#109) | HCA +1.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +6.6 (#110) | HCA +1.6 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.846 (#83) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.701 (#95) | AdjNet +6.7 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.694 (#99) | AdjNet +5.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.650 (#95) | AdjO 64.3 | AdjD 60.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.648 (#95) | AdjO 64.3 | AdjD 60.6 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.657 (#106) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.656 (#106) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1104 (#94) | RD 164 | GP 4 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | 0.715 (#88) | Chronological component blend with rest and venue. |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
Recency Ensemble
Log Adjusted
Elo
Points Off/Def Recency
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | vs | Lindenwood Lions | W | 63 - 46 |
| 2026-11-06 | @ | Utah Utes | L | 63 - 72 |
| 2026-11-10 | @ | Denver Pioneers | W | 86 - 50 |
| 2026-11-13 | vs | Wyoming Cowgirls | L | 55 - 58 |
| 2026-11-20 | vs | Harvard Crimson | - | Preview |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Camryn Runner
|
G | 4 | 35.2 | 14.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 34 | 4 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 45.5 | 50.0 | 81.2 | 2.5 | 57.8 | 52.3 |
Kloe Froebe
|
G | 4 | 33.2 | 14.0 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 17 | 4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 51.2 | 0.0 | 70.6 | -0.69 | 55.5 | 51.2 |
McKenna Murphy
|
G | 4 | 33.0 | 13.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 36 | 4 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 48.8 | 42.1 | 80.0 | 1.09 | 59.7 | 58.1 |
Caitlin Kramer
|
G | 4 | 32.0 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 13.2 | 34 | 4 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 45.2 | 44.4 | 46.2 | -0.77 | 57.2 | 58.1 |
Sophie Sene
|
F | 4 | 17.2 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 12 | 4 | 3.0 | 7.1 | 40.7 | 28.6 | 0 | -0.37 | 44.4 | 44.4 |
Heidur Karlsdottir
|
F | 4 | 18.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 25 | 4 | 6.2 | 13.3 | 53.3 | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | 53.3 | 53.3 |
Kyla Hollier
|
F | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | -2 | 1 | -2.0 | -9.6 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.76 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
Allie Roden
|
G | 4 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 10 | 4 | 2.5 | 9.3 | 75.0 | 66.7 | 0 | -0.4 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Bree Bowman
|
G | 3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 3 | 1.7 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 100.0 | -0.12 | 64.7 | 0.0 |
Gianna Smith
|
G | 4 | 10.2 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 22 | 4 | 5.5 | 22.6 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 0 | 0.15 | 10.7 | 10.7 |
Maryn Archer
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Emilie Borges-Michaelsen
|
F | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Elsie Larsen
|
G | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Anna Wikstrom
|
G | 2 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 11 | 2 | 5.5 | 41.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.96 | 0 | 0 |
Olivia Pawlicki
|
F | 2 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.85 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG
2026-2027 Shot Zones
226 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).
McKenna MurphyKloe FroebeCamryn RunnerCaitlin KramerSophie SeneGianna Smith
| Zone | FGM-FGA | FG% | Pts | Top scorer | Runner-up | Most misses | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Restricted area | 36-53 | 67.9 | 72 | Kloe Froebe 44% (32 pts) | Sophie Sene 19% (14 pts) | Kloe Froebe 41% (7 misses) | Sophie Sene 35% (6 misses) |
| Paint (non-RA) | 23-65 | 35.4 | 46 | Camryn Runner 30% (14 pts) | Caitlin Kramer 17% (8 pts) | Camryn Runner 31% (13 misses) | McKenna Murphy 19% (8 misses) |
| Mid-range left | 4-7 | 57.1 | 8 | Camryn Runner 50% (4 pts) | McKenna Murphy 50% (4 pts) | Caitlin Kramer 33% (1 misses) | Camryn Runner 33% (1 misses) |
| Mid-range center | 3-4 | 75.0 | 6 | Camryn Runner 67% (4 pts) | McKenna Murphy 33% (2 pts) | Kloe Froebe 100% (1 misses) | - |
| Mid-range right | 8-20 | 40.0 | 16 | McKenna Murphy 50% (8 pts) | Kloe Froebe 25% (4 pts) | Camryn Runner 25% (3 misses) | McKenna Murphy 25% (3 misses) |
| Left corner 3 | 3-7 | 42.9 | 9 | McKenna Murphy 67% (6 pts) | Caitlin Kramer 33% (3 pts) | Caitlin Kramer 50% (2 misses) | Olivia Pawlicki 25% (1 misses) |
| Right corner 3 | 0-3 | 0.0 | 0 | - | - | McKenna Murphy 67% (2 misses) | Kyla Hollier 33% (1 misses) |
| Above-break 3 left | 9-26 | 34.6 | 27 | Caitlin Kramer 56% (15 pts) | Camryn Runner 33% (9 pts) | Caitlin Kramer 29% (5 misses) | Gianna Smith 24% (4 misses) |
| Above-break 3 center | 7-16 | 43.8 | 21 | Sophie Sene 29% (6 pts) | Allie Roden 14% (3 pts) | Camryn Runner 22% (2 misses) | Gianna Smith 22% (2 misses) |
| Above-break 3 right | 7-25 | 28.0 | 21 | McKenna Murphy 57% (12 pts) | Allie Roden 14% (3 pts) | Gianna Smith 28% (5 misses) | McKenna Murphy 22% (4 misses) |