Clarion
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1016 (#241) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1022 (#248) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1027 (#206) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -2.1 (#198) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +0.6 (#356) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.243 (#471) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.599 (#247) | NetEff +3.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.277 (#477) | AdjNet -8.3 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.285 (#477) | AdjNet -7.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.387 (#476) | AdjO 68.9 | AdjD 73.9 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.482 (#411) | AdjO 71.0 | AdjD 71.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.538 (#321) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.539 (#318) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1103 (#107) | RD 104 | GP 20 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | vs | Livingstone | W | 96 - 68 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Bluefield St. | W | 66 - 63 |
| 2025-11-20 | vs | Ohio Dominican | W | 77 - 57 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Lake Erie | W | 88 - 71 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Roberts Wesleyan | W | 84 - 67 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Millersville | W | 79 - 71 |
| 2025-12-09 | vs | Felician | L | 76 - 79 |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | East Stroudsburg | L | 73 - 78 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Kutztown | L | 49 - 76 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ | West Chester | L | 73 - 80 |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Shepherd | W | 81 - 74 |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Shippensburg | W | 71 - 61 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Seton Hill | L | 96 - 112 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | California (PA) | L | 57 - 86 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Pitt.-Johnstown | W | 86 - 72 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Indiana (PA) | W | 78 - 77 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Gannon | L | 74 - 83 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Edinboro | W | 59 - 55 |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Seton Hill | L | 84 - 98 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoe Guice | - | 16 | 26.7 | 15.1 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 4.4 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 78 | 4.3 | 18.0 | 38.5 | 31.0 | 69.9 | 4.81 | 47.7 | 41.5 |
| Arianna Seitz | - | 19 | 28.9 | 13.4 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 46 | 2.2 | 9.3 | 37.8 | 27.8 | 77.6 | 1.63 | 47.5 | 42.4 |
| Kendall Berger | - | 14 | 27.7 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 13 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 49.5 | 38.9 | 78.0 | -0.12 | 61.5 | 56.6 |
| Zoé Bayer | - | 19 | 22.1 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 7.5 | 7.2 | -33 | -1.6 | -11.1 | 43.7 | 31.4 | 83.8 | -1.09 | 54.0 | 49.3 |
| Alyssa Terza | - | 18 | 26.5 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 17 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 35.2 | 30.8 | 66.7 | -0.02 | 47.2 | 45.1 |
| Aundraya Neavins | - | 18 | 18.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | -8 | -0.4 | -2.9 | 42.0 | 35.0 | 78.0 | -0.73 | 55.7 | 46.0 |
| Niah Smedley | - | 19 | 19.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 50 | 2.5 | 18.4 | 48.3 | 10.0 | 75.0 | 1.41 | 51.7 | 48.7 |
| Lia Krarup | - | 8 | 13.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 6.4 | 1.8 | - | - | - | 29.4 | 26.7 | 63.6 | - | 40.3 | 37.3 |
| Madison Palek | - | 12 | 19.6 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 35 | 2.5 | 21.0 | 37.3 | 0.0 | 54.3 | 0.5 | 42.9 | 37.3 |
| Dominika Logue | - | 19 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | -5 | -0.2 | -2.2 | 33.8 | 34.0 | 87.5 | 1.19 | 50.6 | 45.8 |
| Claire Noble | - | 14 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | -38 | -2.5 | -52.2 | 32.1 | 33.3 | 62.5 | -0.84 | 47.6 | 44.6 |
| Jaylyn Twitty | - | 11 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 44 | 4.0 | 104.2 | 15.4 | 0.0 | 62.5 | 0.84 | 34.9 | 15.4 |
| Averi Brozeski | - | 7 | 7.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | -7 | -1.0 | -30.9 | 20.0 | 12.5 | 100.0 | 1.16 | 32.2 | 25.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG