Clarion
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1043 (#143) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1089 (#122) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 987 (#360) | HCA +95 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.6 (#176) | HCA +2.7 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +5.5 (#234) | HCA +3.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.452 (#368) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.301 (#263) | NetEff -7.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.545 (#397) | AdjNet +1.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.546 (#400) | AdjNet +1.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.527 (#395) | AdjO 78.2 | AdjD 77.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.575 (#176) | AdjO 78.2 | AdjD 74.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.617 (#219) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.607 (#225) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1073 (#157) | RD 98 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | @ | West Liberty | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-15 | @ | Wheeling | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Frostburg St. | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Lake Erie | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-24 | vs | Penn St.-Fayette | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-11-29 | @ | Daemen | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Roberts Wesleyan | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Millersville | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Lock Haven | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-16 | vs | East Stroudsburg | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Kutztown | - | Incomplete score |
| 2025-12-21 | @ | West Chester | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-02 | vs | Shepherd | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-03 | vs | Shippensburg | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-07 | vs | Slippery Rock | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Seton Hill | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | California (PA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Pitt.-Johnstown | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Indiana (PA) | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Gannon | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Edinboro | - | Incomplete score |
| 2026-02-07 | vs | Seton Hill | - | Incomplete score |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Nelson | - | 22 | 35.8 | 14.1 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 9.2 | 14.3 | -66 | -3.1 | -16.1 | 51.2 | 42.9 | 84.3 | 1.24 | 64.9 | 59.4 |
| Gavin Cote | - | 22 | 28.8 | 13.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 8 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 38.7 | 36.2 | 68.1 | 0.13 | 52.0 | 50.0 |
| Jeremy Thomas II | - | 22 | 25.1 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 9.0 | 14.1 | -7 | -0.3 | -2.8 | 55.3 | 14.3 | 51.6 | -0.21 | 56.1 | 55.6 |
| Justice Easter | - | 22 | 30.3 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 4 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 45.0 | 30.1 | 79.7 | 0.33 | 55.3 | 51.0 |
| Kendon Peebles | - | 22 | 21.6 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 29 | 1.4 | 13.1 | 41.2 | 33.0 | 76.6 | 2.05 | 53.7 | 50.0 |
| Aydan Cunningham | - | 21 | 17.7 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 43 | 2.1 | 33.4 | 45.9 | 29.8 | 80.8 | 2.39 | 56.2 | 52.9 |
| Cam Crockett | - | 20 | 15.9 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 9 | 0.5 | 4.3 | 41.8 | 27.3 | 58.2 | 1.91 | 49.5 | 45.1 |
| Ricky Goode-Wright | - | 21 | 14.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | -41 | -2.0 | -29.9 | 37.1 | 40.0 | 60.7 | -2.9 | 49.8 | 47.2 |
| Jayden Statum | - | 5 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 12 | 2.4 | 34.1 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 85.7 | - | 54.2 | 37.5 |
| Caden Young | - | 2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | -17 | -1.7 | -122.5 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 50.0 | -1.64 | 41.0 | 37.5 |
| Michael Moore | - | 21 | 12.4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 41 | 2.0 | 30.4 | 53.8 | 0 | 66.7 | 1.99 | 59.0 | 53.8 |
| Zaire Smaltz | - | 10 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | -11 | -1.2 | -15.2 | 53.8 | 33.3 | 50.0 | -0.88 | 57.5 | 57.7 |
| Brody McQuiston | - | 2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | - | - | - | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | - | 150.0 | 150.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG