🐻⬇️🏀

Claflin

Also known as: Claflin
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1038 (#151) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1064 (#155) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1069 (#108) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +4.7 (#127) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +6.0 (#265) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.830 (#222) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +15.5 More → 0.903 (#137) NetEff +15.5
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -71.0 More → 0.000 (#506) NetEff -71.0
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +3.8 More → 0.609 (#353) AdjNet +3.8
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +4.1 More → 0.620 (#349) AdjNet +4.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 67.0 | AdjD 63.9 More → 0.569 (#344) AdjO 67.0 | AdjD 63.9
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 59.6 | AdjD 53.0 More → 0.646 (#124) AdjO 59.6 | AdjD 53.0
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.670 (#213) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.675 (#201) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 105 | GP 19 More → 1133 (#87) RD 105 | GP 19

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-15 @ ETSU L 31 - 69
2025-11-18 vs Lynn L 64 - 68
2025-11-22 vs Morris W 98 - 28
2025-11-25 @ Converse W 76 - 42
2025-12-11 @ Bluefield St. W 75 - 47
2025-12-13 @ Virginia St. W 64 - 49
2025-12-15 @ Elizabeth City St. W 60 - 47
2025-12-20 @ Middle Georgia L 58 - 63
2026-01-10 vs Lincoln (PA) W 68 - 34
2026-01-12 vs Virginia Union L 55 - 56
2026-01-17 vs Livingstone L 50 - 56
2026-01-21 vs Winston-Salem L 41 - 50
2026-01-24 @ Shaw L 0 - 0
2026-01-26 @ Benedict L 0 - 0
2026-01-29 @ Fayetteville St. L 45 - 57
2026-02-02 vs Johnson C. Smith W 63 - 44
2026-02-04 @ Shaw W 66 - 44
2026-02-07 vs Shaw W 61 - 45

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Ashari Lewis - 14 26.0 12.2 4.6 2.4 2.1 0.9 4.4 12.4 5.5 -14 -3.5 -23.9 37.9 34.9 60.0 -0.97 44.6 42.2
Mia Lewis - 14 24.4 10.0 2.4 2.4 2.4 0.0 4.3 7.9 5.0 -50 -4.2 -53.2 40.5 18.2 71.6 -3.21 49.8 41.4
Tyra Floyd - 14 28.4 8.0 3.1 0.7 1.2 0.0 1.4 8.4 3.3 - - - 33.9 26.2 73.3 - 44.9 42.8
Ariel Lucas - 14 27.4 5.7 1.6 0.9 1.4 0.0 2.1 6.8 0.7 - - - 28.4 26.8 58.3 - 39.9 38.4
Olivia Randolph - 13 24.2 4.9 7.6 1.1 1.2 2.3 1.2 4.8 11.2 - - - 43.5 50.0 64.3 - 46.9 44.4
Ryian Howard - 13 14.1 4.8 4.5 1.2 1.1 0.0 1.2 2.8 7.5 - - - 58.3 50.0 63.0 - 64.7 62.5
Makailah Davis - 14 15.2 4.6 1.9 0.7 0.9 0.1 1.1 5.1 1.9 - - - 36.6 26.8 20.0 - 43.7 44.4
Tacoya Heyward - 6 16.1 4.3 4.3 1.0 1.5 0.3 1.2 3.3 7.0 - - - 55.0 25.0 75.0 - 59.7 57.5
Emaree Hinton - 13 11.1 4.0 2.6 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 3.4 3.2 - - - 52.3 0 50.0 - 52.8 52.3
Yvette Sandifer - 14 17.2 2.0 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.2 2.1 1.3 - - - 31.0 0.0 66.7 - 39.3 31.0
Nevaeh Washington - 8 5.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.8 - - - 50.0 0 0 - 50.0 50.0
Kennedy Rivers - 7 7.4 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.6 2.1 -0.6 - - - 13.3 22.2 0 - 20.0 20.0
Aveion Walker - 8 2.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 16 1.1 27.0 0 0 0 1.26 0 0
Zhaire Mack - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
Alexia Grant - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - 0 0 0 - 0 0
CeNiyah Williams - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28 1.6 16.1 0 0 0 1.86 0 0

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG