Chris. Newport
Model Outputs
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1383 (#7) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1328 (#7) | HCA +68 elo |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1324 (#7) | HCA +68 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +33.2 (#3) | HCA +1.5 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +33.2 (#3) | HCA +1.5 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.887 (#21) | - |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.809 (#9) | AdjO 76.8 | AdjD 69.4 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.807 (#9) | AdjO 76.7 | AdjD 69.4 |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1323 (#7) | RD 197 | GP 2 |
Rank through the season
League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.
2026-2027 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-07 | vs | Penn St.-Altoona | W | 97 - 59 |
| 2026-11-11 | @ | Randolph-Macon | L | 47 - 78 |
2026-2027 Roster
Estimated Minutes by Position
Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM GP | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Henderson | - | 1 | 23.7 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | - | - | - | - | 50.0 | 60.0 | 0.0 | - | 65.2 | 68.8 |
| Zyir Baskerville | - | 1 | 19.4 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 40.0 | 40.0 |
| Knox Axselle | - | 1 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | - | 66.7 | 66.7 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Toa Hollenbeck | - | 1 | 24.3 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | -2.0 | - | - | - | - | 37.5 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Tyreek Lundy | - | 1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | - | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0 | - | 150.0 | 150.0 |
| Brandon Freeman | - | 1 | 13.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | - | 25.0 | 33.3 | 0 | - | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| Isaiah Dozier | - | 1 | 11.7 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | -2.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 12.9 | 0.0 |
| Luke Fisher | - | 1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 100.0 | - | 113.6 | 0 |
| Jason Ofcarcik | - | 1 | 15.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Tai Bowler | - | 1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | - | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Kavontae Williams | - | 1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 56.8 | 0 |
| Cam Clark | - | 1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 50.0 | - | 56.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Derderian | - | 1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Cam Quarles | - | 1 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Luka Matic | - | 1 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Matthias Lattimore | - | 1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Weiser | - | 1 | 11.1 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Tyler Sprague | - | 1 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Ethan Ward | - | 1 | 22.6 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Reece Ketron | - | 1 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
Not enough players with both Numbers/Game and RAPM to plot.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG