🐻⬇️🏀

Chatham

Also known as: Chatham
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1101 (#128) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1146 (#104) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 1050 (#182) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.4 More → +13.3 (#85) HCA +2.4
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.9 More → +1.8 (#339) HCA +2.9
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.958 (#192) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +29.0 More → 0.965 (#119) NetEff +29.0
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +20.5 More → 0.944 (#132) NetEff +20.5
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +22.1 More → 0.928 (#188) AdjNet +22.1
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +21.9 More → 0.931 (#185) AdjNet +21.9
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 57.2 More → 0.793 (#182) AdjO 72.0 | AdjD 57.2
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 57.5 More → 0.629 (#198) AdjO 63.3 | AdjD 57.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.672 (#239) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.663 (#248) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 101 | GP 21 More → 1074 (#216) RD 101 | GP 21

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-08 vs RIT - Incomplete score
2025-11-09 vs Wash. & Lee - Incomplete score
2025-11-11 @ Carlow - Incomplete score
2025-11-14 vs Mary Washington - Incomplete score
2025-11-15 vs Wittenberg - Incomplete score
2025-11-18 vs Pitt.-Greensburg - Incomplete score
2025-11-21 @ Indiana (PA) - Incomplete score
2025-11-25 vs Penn St.-Behrend - Incomplete score
2025-12-03 @ Wash. & Jeff. - Incomplete score
2025-12-10 @ Bethany (WV) - Incomplete score
2025-12-30 @ Juniata - Incomplete score
2026-01-10 vs Thiel - Incomplete score
2026-01-14 @ Saint Vincent - Incomplete score
2026-01-17 vs Grove City - Incomplete score
2026-01-21 vs Franciscan - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Hiram - Incomplete score
2026-01-28 vs Wash. & Jeff. - Incomplete score
2026-01-31 @ Westminster (PA) - Incomplete score
2026-02-04 vs Bethany (WV) - Incomplete score
2026-02-07 @ Allegheny - Incomplete score

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Madison Nereu - 19 32.5 18.5 9.3 3.6 1.9 0.3 2.6 14.9 16.0 20 1.1 3.0 51.6 9.1 66.7 2.12 54.6 51.8
Alyssa Laukus - 19 28.8 13.1 5.4 3.5 2.4 1.4 2.1 8.9 14.7 40 2.1 7.1 58.8 50.0 65.3 2.37 61.5 59.1
Hanah Chenault - 1 33.0 12.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 9.0 7.0 47 2.6 7.8 33.3 25.0 100.0 1.24 55.8 44.4
Hannah Chenault - 18 29.6 9.2 3.1 1.7 1.6 0.3 1.5 8.7 5.6 47 2.6 7.8 33.8 29.3 80.6 0.92 48.3 44.6
Maria Barela - 19 27.8 8.4 2.5 3.3 1.6 0.2 2.0 8.3 5.6 21 1.2 4.1 30.4 29.0 84.3 2.09 44.1 36.7
Julia Calvin - 19 16.6 5.7 3.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.8 6.5 3.8 79 4.2 25.4 32.5 35.1 66.7 0.37 43.4 43.1
Hannah Stephanites - 15 10.5 4.8 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.5 4.1 1.9 30 2.0 12.5 44.3 35.3 75.0 1.32 55.8 54.1
Erin Dixon - 8 11.2 3.9 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.0 4.5 0.8 -27 -3.9 -81.4 33.3 37.5 80.0 -1.12 40.6 37.5
Ashley Lippold - 3 4.9 3.3 1.0 0.3 1.7 0.3 0.7 3.3 2.7 - - - 40.0 0 50.0 - 42.5 40.0
Jordyn Jensen - 19 14.9 2.8 2.9 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.8 3.3 3.4 0 0.0 0.0 30.6 12.5 73.7 -0.37 38.4 32.3
JaKaia Lotz - 9 9.6 2.6 2.8 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.8 2.7 3.3 -28 -3.5 -54.0 37.5 0 62.5 2.72 41.8 37.5
Giavonna Richter - 6 4.0 2.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.0 - - - 35.7 40.0 50.0 - 50.4 50.0
Emily Venick - 19 15.6 2.2 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.1 25 1.3 7.4 34.9 25.0 50.0 -1.19 41.7 39.5
Erica Olszewski - 16 9.3 1.5 2.4 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.6 2.1 3.2 -1 -0.1 -2.1 30.3 14.3 37.5 -2.29 32.9 31.8
Aliyah Maldonado - 2 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 -99 -6.2 -58.0 100.0 100.0 0 -5.32 150.0 150.0
Brielle Watson - 2 1.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 -124 -6.2 -45.9 100.0 0 0 -2.92 100.0 100.0
Jordyn Miller - 6 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.3 - - - 50.0 33.3 0 - 62.5 62.5
Reese Kresslein - 8 7.7 0.8 2.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.2 21 3.0 207.4 15.4 0.0 28.6 -0.42 18.7 15.4
Layla Lammert - 3 3.5 0.7 1.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 - - - 33.3 0.0 0 - 33.3 33.3
Kristin Szymusiak - 7 4.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 - - - 33.3 33.3 0 - 41.7 41.7

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG