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Chadron St.

Season: 2025-2026 2024-2025 2023-2024 2022-2023 2021-2022 2020-2021 2019-2020 2018-2019 2017-2018 2016-2017
Also known as: Chadron St.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 649 (#288) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 633 (#286) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +62 elo More → 799 (#289) HCA +62 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.6 More → -14.5 (#277) HCA +2.6
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.6 More → -17.7 (#284) HCA +2.6
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.011 (#291) -
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -28.9 More → 0.034 (#286) AdjNet -28.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -28.6 More → 0.033 (#287) AdjNet -28.6
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 53.3 | AdjD 70.5 More → 0.172 (#284) AdjO 53.3 | AdjD 70.5
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 51.9 | AdjD 70.5 More → 0.155 (#287) AdjO 51.9 | AdjD 70.5
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.106 (#286) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.104 (#286) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 160 | GP 24 More → 574 (#289) RD 160 | GP 24
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. More → Legacy estimate Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast.

2025-2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-15 @ Okla. Christian L 48 - 73
2025-11-16 @ Okla. Christian L 57 - 74
2025-11-22 @ Wayne St. (NE) L 53 - 95
2025-11-25 @ Wyoming - Incomplete score
2025-11-28 @ Northern Colo. L 47 - 114
2025-12-04 @ Black Hills St. L 34 - 83
2025-12-06 vs South Dakota Mines L 51 - 75
2025-12-11 vs CSU Pueblo L 54 - 66
2025-12-13 vs UCCS L 54 - 66
2025-12-16 @ Neb.-Kearney L 46 - 90
2025-12-19 @ Fort Hays St. L 49 - 92
2026-01-10 @ Regis (CO) W 68 - 53
2026-01-15 vs Adams St. L 64 - 74
2026-01-17 vs N.M. Highlands L 54 - 74
2026-01-22 @ Westminster (UT) - Incomplete score
2026-01-24 @ Colorado Mesa - Incomplete score
2026-01-27 vs Black Hills St. - Incomplete score
2026-01-29 @ South Dakota Mines - Incomplete score
2026-02-05 @ Colo. Christian L 43 - 84
2026-02-07 @ CSU Pueblo L 56 - 76
2026-02-12 vs MSU Denver L 52 - 71
2026-02-14 vs Colo. Sch. of Mines L 51 - 79
2026-02-19 @ Fort Lewis L 46 - 67
2026-02-21 @ Adams St. L 52 - 78
2026-02-26 vs Western Colo. L 24 - 77
2026-02-28 vs Westminster (UT) L 68 - 73

2025-2026 Roster

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions, box scores and minutes played. Each column totals one game's minutes, divided among the players. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM GP PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
McKenzi Petersen - 24 21.7 10.5 4.9 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.3 8.5 5.6 -308 21 -14.7 -28.4 54.4 0.0 63.0 -4.7 56.0 54.4
Audrey Quintana - 23 26.8 9.7 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.2 2.7 9.9 2.7 -380 20 -19.0 -27.6 34.4 27.5 91.7 -5.94 45.7 41.6
Ella Moser - 24 23.1 8.7 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.0 1.9 8.5 1.5 -188 21 -9.0 -15.9 34.5 32.4 74.1 1.97 48.4 46.3
Kenna Wagner - 24 24.9 6.7 2.8 3.0 1.3 0.0 3.9 7.9 2.0 -267 21 -12.7 -20.7 32.1 23.5 57.4 -0.35 38.2 35.3
Dreanna Jackson - 21 17.6 4.9 1.6 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.9 6.6 -0.5 -258 20 -12.9 -28.1 26.1 19.1 80.0 -4.53 35.3 32.6
Amya Winfrey - 23 15.0 3.3 4.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.3 3.0 5.2 -94 20 -4.7 -12.7 42.6 0 57.6 1.12 46.7 42.6
Bianca Bindzus - 17 11.7 3.2 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.8 2.5 2.2 -78 13 -6.0 -23.1 34.9 37.8 83.3 -2.43 55.9 51.2
Camren Morris - 3 15.2 2.7 2.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.3 3.3 0.7 -17 2 -8.5 -19.8 30.0 0.0 100.0 -1.03 36.8 30.0
Keziah Toran - 19 16.3 2.6 2.6 0.6 1.1 0.2 1.2 4.3 1.6 -167 17 -9.8 -23.3 25.6 11.1 54.5 -4.03 28.2 26.2
Evelyn Old Coyote - 23 14.9 1.3 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 1.7 1.7 2.3 -195 20 -9.8 -25.9 25.0 20.0 43.8 -1.92 31.9 28.7
Jordyn Stokes - 18 13.6 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 1.7 -0.2 -102 14 -7.3 -23.8 20.0 17.4 66.7 -4.1 30.6 26.7
Alex Ridenour - 20 13.8 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.8 -134 19 -7.1 -19.0 24.2 23.8 50.0 -2.22 32.5 31.8
Sophia Nguyen - 9 4.7 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 1.4 0.7 -0.7 -29 9 -3.2 -26.5 50.0 50.0 0 -2.25 66.7 66.7
Teryn Stokes - 14 8.4 0.7 2.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.6 2.4 -79 14 -5.6 -25.3 22.2 0 66.7 -4.71 38.6 22.2
Asia Gibson - 7 11.6 0.6 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.0 2.4 -1.3 -26 4 -6.5 -40.7 11.8 0.0 0.0 -4.07 11.2 11.8
Alexis Trousdale - 17 7.9 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.1 0.5 -0.2 -68 13 -5.2 -25.9 11.1 0.0 50.0 -2.33 18.6 11.1

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG