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Central Wash.

Also known as: Central Wash.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1018 (#164) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1051 (#165) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1017 (#214) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +11.5 (#84) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +8.9 (#173) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.747 (#186) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +76.4 More → 1.000 (#10) NetEff +76.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +14.9 More → 0.848 (#197) AdjNet +14.9
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +15.0 More → 0.853 (#196) AdjNet +15.0
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 83.2 | AdjD 71.4 More → 0.745 (#187) AdjO 83.2 | AdjD 71.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 80.8 | AdjD 73.7 More → 0.656 (#100) AdjO 80.8 | AdjD 73.7
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.631 (#209) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.633 (#197) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 99 | GP 23 More → 1049 (#176) RD 99 | GP 23

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-01 @ Central Okla. W 75 - 65
2025-11-02 @ St. Edward's L 47 - 68
2025-11-14 @ Menlo W 80 - 68
2025-11-15 @ Cal St. Monterey Bay L 88 - 92
2025-11-21 vs Chico St. W 94 - 89
2025-11-22 vs Walla Walla W 104 - 71
2025-11-28 @ Point Loma L 78 - 94
2025-11-29 @ Vanguard L 62 - 65
2025-12-04 @ Simon Fraser L 73 - 89
2025-12-06 @ Western Wash. L 95 - 97
2025-12-13 vs Evergreen St. W 92 - 72
2025-12-15 vs Northwest (WA) L 76 - 82
2026-01-03 vs Northwest Nazarene W 75 - 63
2026-01-08 vs Alas. Fairbanks W 101 - 50
2026-01-10 vs Alas. Anchorage L 55 - 69
2026-01-15 @ Seattle Pacific L 63 - 66
2026-01-17 @ Mont. St. Billings W 85 - 72
2026-01-22 vs Saint Martin's L 66 - 78
2026-01-24 vs Western Ore. W 92 - 75
2026-01-31 @ Northwest Nazarene W 91 - 76
2026-02-05 @ Alas. Anchorage L 70 - 77
2026-02-07 @ Alas. Fairbanks L 81 - 89

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Jordan Clark - 20 31.6 18.1 3.1 3.8 1.2 0.2 1.6 13.2 11.6 67 3.2 13.2 44.3 42.5 82.6 0.3 59.3 54.0
Bradley Swillie - 21 29.7 15.9 3.3 3.6 1.1 0.2 2.5 12.4 9.2 44 2.0 9.0 45.4 33.7 79.7 -0.57 56.7 52.1
Chae Haynes - 22 19.7 9.3 6.8 1.3 0.5 0.5 1.7 6.4 10.2 -25 -1.1 -7.1 52.5 0 57.7 1.17 55.5 52.5
Eli Williams - 21 29.4 8.2 2.5 2.6 0.7 0.1 1.3 5.8 7.0 -11 -0.5 -2.1 44.3 35.9 75.0 0.62 60.1 55.7
Calvin Sisk - 21 17.2 7.7 4.5 0.6 0.2 1.8 0.9 4.8 9.2 67 3.0 23.7 72.3 0.0 51.6 -0.48 70.7 72.3
Jamari Harris - 22 18.0 7.0 3.7 0.9 1.0 0.3 1.0 4.8 7.0 18 0.8 5.5 52.8 37.5 70.0 -0.83 64.6 62.7
Garrett Marrs - 22 25.8 6.2 4.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.7 5.4 6.7 51 2.2 13.4 39.0 31.5 64.7 1.13 51.5 48.7
Jalen Childs - 22 16.3 5.3 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.0 1.7 4.8 4.1 9 0.4 4.1 43.4 39.3 59.1 0.04 50.1 48.6
Demetrus Johnson II - 12 20.7 4.8 2.2 2.4 0.9 0.1 1.6 3.5 5.3 -27 -13.5 -41.7 38.1 31.2 69.0 -1.76 52.0 44.0
Luke Westerfield - 5 4.7 2.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.2 1.8 3.0 -20 -4.0 -648.6 55.6 0 33.3 -0.81 51.5 55.6
Bralyn Smith - 7 10.4 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.9 13 2.2 264.4 26.7 25.0 50.0 -0.32 37.8 36.7
Aman Sterling - 5 5.2 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.6 -8 -1.6 -41.9 14.3 20.0 100.0 0.1 40.0 21.4
Harry Davies - 7 7.3 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.3 2.1 0.4 -16 -2.3 -66.4 26.7 16.7 0 0.99 33.3 33.3

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG