🐻⬇️🏀

Central Mo.

Also known as: Central Mo.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1173 (#48) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1168 (#57) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +75 elo More → 1200 (#17) HCA +75 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +15.7 (#42) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.7 More → +21.4 (#80) HCA +3.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.785 (#256) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +15.5 More → 0.880 (#148) NetEff +15.5
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff -49.2 More → 0.001 (#476) NetEff -49.2
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +27.6 More → 0.961 (#134) AdjNet +27.6
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +28.5 More → 0.966 (#132) AdjNet +28.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 75.6 | AdjD 57.6 More → 0.837 (#136) AdjO 75.6 | AdjD 57.6
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 56.4 More → 0.800 (#29) AdjO 71.6 | AdjD 56.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.901 (#31) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.895 (#29) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 100 | GP 22 More → 1283 (#19) RD 100 | GP 22

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-14 vs Mary L 55 - 65
2025-11-15 @ Augustana (SD) W 65 - 58
2025-11-18 vs MSU Moorhead L 66 - 68
2025-11-21 @ West Florida W 85 - 62
2025-11-24 @ Saint Leo W 87 - 33
2025-11-29 vs Evangel W 83 - 69
2025-12-04 vs Fort Hays St. L 60 - 65
2025-12-06 vs Neb.-Kearney W 72 - 69
2025-12-13 @ Washburn W 67 - 56
2025-12-15 @ Mo.-St. Louis L 57 - 59
2025-12-20 vs William Jewell W 83 - 43
2026-01-01 vs Emporia St. W 70 - 61
2026-01-10 @ Missouri Western W 58 - 55
2026-01-14 @ Newman W 64 - 54
2026-01-17 @ Emporia St. L 70 - 76
2026-01-21 vs Missouri Western W 80 - 71
2026-01-23 vs Northwest Mo. St. W 77 - 59
2026-01-29 @ Neb.-Kearney W 78 - 68
2026-01-31 @ Fort Hays St. W 81 - 69
2026-02-07 vs Washburn W 64 - 58

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Reese Schaaf - 20 33.0 18.6 8.8 2.8 1.9 0.2 2.1 11.9 18.2 102 5.1 20.5 55.2 45.6 83.7 3.05 65.9 60.7
Taylor Weishaar - 20 32.5 15.4 8.4 1.8 0.8 1.5 2.8 11.7 13.4 106 5.0 18.3 42.1 28.2 73.4 -1.3 53.7 46.8
Cierra Smith - 9 23.0 9.4 3.9 1.9 1.6 0.1 3.0 8.9 5.0 19 2.4 8.5 41.2 38.5 53.8 -0.65 46.5 44.4
Neely Schaaf - 20 27.4 7.8 4.0 2.8 0.9 0.1 2.6 6.0 7.0 150 7.5 32.7 36.4 33.3 78.6 2.81 53.6 46.3
Hayden Heim - 20 26.4 7.1 4.7 1.8 0.5 1.0 1.8 6.4 6.9 110 5.5 23.5 44.5 30.0 46.4 1.17 50.6 50.4
Makenzie Farmer - 20 22.4 6.8 2.6 2.1 0.9 0.5 1.6 6.5 4.8 112 5.6 31.2 36.9 30.8 68.0 -0.09 48.6 46.2
Jayla Griffith - 20 18.4 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.6 4.4 2.4 59 2.8 22.3 28.4 26.5 83.3 0.88 42.5 40.9
Rylee Vierthaler - 20 17.6 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.4 3 0.1 1.1 65.3 0.0 58.3 -0.76 65.4 65.3
Jolie Bonderer - 18 8.8 2.4 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 1.6 24.4 51.6 33.3 100.0 0.02 64.6 59.7
Amaria Musick - 12 10.3 2.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.0 3.2 1.1 4 0.3 4.3 28.9 25.0 71.4 -1.93 35.3 31.6

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG