🐻⬇️🏀

Central Mo.

Also known as: Central Mo.
Program History

Model Outputs

2025-2026
Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model Output Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → 1110 (#44) -
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → 1212 (#35) -
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +95 elo More → 1134 (#47) HCA +95 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.8 More → +19.8 (#19) HCA +2.8
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +3.3 More → +23.1 (#41) HCA +3.3
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → 0.663 (#244) -
Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. NetEff +21.4 More → 0.914 (#190) NetEff +21.4
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet +23.2 More → 0.936 (#91) AdjNet +23.2
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet +21.1 More → 0.920 (#111) AdjNet +21.1
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 76.2 | AdjD 60.4 More → 0.808 (#114) AdjO 76.2 | AdjD 60.4
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 82.5 | AdjD 65.4 More → 0.826 (#9) AdjO 82.5 | AdjD 65.4
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.873 (#24) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More → 0.869 (#21) Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 97 | GP 25 More → 1236 (#31) RD 97 | GP 25

2026 Schedule & Results

Date Vs/At Opponent Result Score
2025-11-07 vs Colo. Sch. of Mines W 96 - 84
2025-11-08 @ Mont. St. Billings L 75 - 80
2025-11-09 vs N.M. Highlands W 78 - 74
2025-11-14 @ Minnesota St. L 63 - 81
2025-11-15 @ Sioux Falls W 82 - 77
2025-11-20 vs Upper Iowa W 84 - 79
2025-11-25 @ McKendree W 75 - 67
2025-11-26 @ Drury W 89 - 67
2025-11-30 vs Tabor W 89 - 62
2025-12-04 vs Fort Hays St. W 64 - 50
2025-12-06 vs Neb.-Kearney W 99 - 69
2025-12-13 @ Washburn L 72 - 78
2025-12-16 vs West Tex. A&M W 88 - 78
2025-12-17 @ Lubbock Christian L 65 - 70
2025-12-21 vs Maryville (MO) W 110 - 63
2026-01-01 vs Emporia St. W 78 - 71
2026-01-07 @ Northwest Mo. St. W 76 - 72
2026-01-10 @ Missouri Western L 76 - 88
2026-01-14 @ Newman W 96 - 57
2026-01-17 @ Emporia St. L 88 - 89
2026-01-21 vs Missouri Western W 97 - 83
2026-01-23 vs Northwest Mo. St. L 79 - 80
2026-01-29 @ Neb.-Kearney W 92 - 53
2026-01-31 @ Fort Hays St. W 61 - 49
2026-02-07 vs Washburn W 74 - 72

2026 Roster

Minutes by Position

The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.

Player Pos GP MIN PTS REB AST STL BLK TO FGA Numbers PM PM/G PM/40 FG% 3P% FT% RAPM TS% eFG%
Lazerek Houston - 25 33.4 20.9 4.3 5.2 1.6 0.5 3.1 16.2 13.2 122 5.1 16.7 46.9 37.0 74.6 0.1 57.1 53.6
Jevon Hill - 25 29.2 14.0 5.2 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.1 9.4 10.5 157 6.5 22.6 47.0 45.1 87.2 0.39 68.2 65.5
Kyran Tilley - 25 30.9 12.5 3.9 3.7 1.5 0.2 2.0 10.0 9.7 137 5.5 19.9 44.6 34.7 67.9 2.51 54.6 51.4
Trinell Parker - 25 24.1 10.6 5.2 0.8 0.3 0.5 1.4 7.2 8.9 130 5.4 24.5 61.9 0 60.0 0.67 62.8 61.9
Jake Fritz - 25 24.7 8.1 3.2 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.9 5.8 7.6 105 4.2 19.8 47.2 49.3 75.0 -0.9 62.5 59.7
Deadric Fikes - 15 12.3 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 1.5 3.7 4.9 20 1.3 12.5 53.6 33.3 57.1 -1.8 57.5 57.1
Carter Kaifes - 25 19.1 4.2 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 3.2 4.5 60 2.5 12.6 50.0 38.2 66.7 1.53 63.5 63.1
Noah Martin - 25 11.6 3.1 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 2.0 4.3 -15 -0.6 -6.2 53.1 34.8 77.3 0.33 65.6 61.2
Naz Brown - 16 7.3 1.9 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.8 35 2.3 25.0 38.5 41.2 66.7 -0.05 54.1 51.9
AJ Lux - 18 10.1 1.8 2.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.3 69 4.1 64.0 30.0 25.7 0 2.04 41.2 41.2
Deshawne Crim - 11 3.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.7 -11 -1.1 -47.7 40.0 33.3 80.0 -1.03 55.2 50.0
Kyree Polk - 21 7.2 1.4 2.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.7 3.4 28 1.4 20.0 66.7 0 45.0 -0.05 60.9 66.7
Judah Sault - 7 2.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 7 1.2 75.3 25.0 33.3 0 -0.85 37.5 37.5

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG