Central Connecticut - 2026-2027

2026-2027 Team Stats (4 games)

65.5

PPG

79.0

Opp

-13.5

Margin

42.0%

FG%

35.5%

3P%

64.8%

FT%

31.0

RPG

10.8

APG

11.8

TO

65.7

Est. poss./game

66.2

Adj PPG

71.3

Adj Opp PPG

#296

Adj Margin Rank

Model Outputs

2026-2027

Catalog

Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.

Model	Output	Notes
Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. Preseason prior 723 (roster + recruiting): base (last-season Elo, regressed) 874, returning -52, transfers -66, freshmen -34 More →	776 (#300)	Preseason prior 723 (roster + recruiting): base (last-season Elo, regressed) 874, returning -52, transfers -66, freshmen -34
Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. HCA +194 elo More →	921 (#252)	HCA +194 elo
Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +193 elo More →	925 (#251)	HCA +193 elo
Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. HCA +2.7 More →	-12.4 (#324)	HCA +2.7
Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. HCA +2.7 More →	-12.3 (#323)	HCA +2.7
Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More →	0.156 (#310)	-
Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. AdjNet -16.0 More →	0.226 (#334)	AdjNet -16.0
Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. AdjNet -16.5 More →	0.217 (#336)	AdjNet -16.5
Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. AdjO 66.2 \| AdjD 71.3 More →	0.343 (#296)	AdjO 66.2 \| AdjD 71.3
Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. AdjO 66.3 \| AdjD 71.3 More →	0.347 (#293)	AdjO 66.3 \| AdjD 71.3
Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.291 (#302)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD More →	0.291 (#302)	Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD
Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. RD 172 \| GP 4 More →	913 (#241)	RD 172 \| GP 4
Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. Chronological component blend with rest and venue. More →	0.252 (#321)	Chronological component blend with rest and venue.

Rank through the season

League rank each week from the model's fit of the games played by then, published the same way as the table above, so each line ends at the rank shown there. Select a point for its rating.

Recency Ensemble Log Adjusted Elo Points Off/Def Recency

2026-2027 Schedule & Results

Date	Vs/At	Opponent	Result	Score
2026-11-02	@	Temple Owls	L	56 - 68
2026-11-05	@	Syracuse Orange	L	49 - 102
2026-11-08	@	Dartmouth Big Green	W	78 - 71
2026-11-12	@	Sacred Heart Pioneers	W	79 - 75
2026-11-15	vs	Quinnipiac Bobcats	-	Preview
2026-11-17	vs	Vermont State Lyndon Hornets	-	Preview

2026-2027 Roster

Show Alumni If everyone stayed four years

Estimated Minutes by Position

Estimated from roster positions and box-score rates; an unlisted position is inferred from those rates, and missing rates are treated as zero. Legend numbers are each player's share of recorded roster minutes, scaled to five players' regulation minutes; they can differ from minutes per game in the roster below, especially when players miss games or coverage is incomplete. Each position column totals one regulation game's minutes. Use the labels or legend to highlight a player's estimated role.

Player	Pos	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FGA	Nums/G	PM	PM GP	PM/G	PM/40	FG%	3P%	FT%	RAPM	TS%	eFG%
Raphel Laurent	G	4	30.8	18.8	5.5	1.0	1.0	0.0	2.5	15.2	8.5	-36	4	-9.0	-12.3	44.3	38.1	81.2	-0.58	55.1	50.8
Ashton Reynolds	G	3	28.3	13.3	4.3	1.0	1.3	0.7	1.3	9.7	9.7	-37	3	-12.3	-18.4	51.7	30.8	66.7	-1.27	60.7	58.6
Victor Payne Jr.	G	3	22.0	12.7	1.3	0.7	1.0	0.3	2.0	6.7	7.3	20	3	6.7	12.9	70.0	66.7	-	1.01	95.0	95.0
Jhace Johnson	G	4	31.2	8.5	2.8	3.0	1.2	0.2	2.8	9.0	4.0	-47	4	-11.8	-15.1	33.3	33.3	66.7	-1.32	44.0	41.7
James Jones	G	4	33.0	6.0	7.2	1.2	0.8	0.0	1.0	6.0	8.2	-62	4	-15.5	-19.5	37.5	20.0	55.6	-2.3	42.9	39.6
Daniel Etiosa James	F	1	22.0	5.0	6.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	5.0	8.0	11	1	11.0	19.5	40.0	50.0	0.0	-0.87	46.0	50.0
Jayden Mott	F	4	24.0	5.0	3.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	0.5	5.8	2.8	-38	4	-9.5	-15.7	34.8	20.0	75.0	-1.5	40.4	37.0
Brayden Jackson	G	3	14.3	3.7	0.7	1.0	0.3	0.0	1.0	4.7	0.0	-36	3	-12.0	-37.3	35.7	0.0	33.3	-1.81	35.9	35.7
David Smith	G	1	7.0	3.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	1.0	5.0	8	1	8.0	46.3	100.0	100.0	-	0.19	150.0	150.0
Elijah Parker	G	4	15.2	2.0	2.2	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.5	2.0	4.2	-10	4	-2.5	-6.6	37.5	0.0	50.0	-0.85	41.0	37.5
Roddy Jones	G	3	4.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	-3	3	-1.0	-9.1	33.3	33.3	-	-0.77	50.0	50.0
Rashawn Tibby	F	4	6.8	0.2	0.8	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.5	-3	4	-0.8	-4.4	0.0	0.0	50.0	0.0	10.2	0.0
Jacori Ervin	F	1	6.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	-9	1	-9.0	-57.4	-	-	-	-0.62	-	-
Matt Goodwin	G	3	6.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.3	1.0	-2.3	-33	3	-11.0	-63.5	0.0	0.0	-	-1.73	0.0	0.0
Carson Gretz	F	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Colin Langdon	F	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Numbers/Game vs RAPM

X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.

Advanced: Nums/G = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA per game, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG

2026-2027 Shot Zones

231 located field-goal attempts in 4 games (ESPN). Each zone is coloured by the player with the largest share of the team's made-shot points there (left) and of its misses there (right).

Points: who the team's points here most likely come from

Misses: who misses most here

Raphel LaurentVictor Payne Jr.Ashton ReynoldsJhace JohnsonJames Jones

Zone	FGM-FGA	FG%	Pts	Top scorer	Runner-up	Most misses	Runner-up
Restricted area	22-34	64.7	44	Raphel Laurent 36% (16 pts)	James Jones 18% (8 pts)	Raphel Laurent 50% (6 misses)	Jayden Mott 25% (3 misses)
Paint (non-RA)	33-73	45.2	66	Raphel Laurent 27% (18 pts)	Ashton Reynolds 21% (14 pts)	Raphel Laurent 22% (9 misses)	Jayden Mott 15% (6 misses)
Mid-range left	1-14	7.1	2	James Jones 100% (2 pts)	-	James Jones 31% (4 misses)	Jhace Johnson 31% (4 misses)
Mid-range center	2-8	25.0	4	James Jones 50% (2 pts)	Jhace Johnson 50% (2 pts)	Jhace Johnson 33% (2 misses)	James Jones 17% (1 misses)
Mid-range right	6-9	66.7	12	Jhace Johnson 33% (4 pts)	Raphel Laurent 33% (4 pts)	Raphel Laurent 67% (2 misses)	Jhace Johnson 33% (1 misses)
Left corner 3	2-10	20.0	6	Jhace Johnson 50% (3 pts)	Victor Payne Jr. 50% (3 pts)	Ashton Reynolds 25% (2 misses)	Jhace Johnson 25% (2 misses)
Right corner 3	3-5	60.0	9	James Jones 33% (3 pts)	Raphel Laurent 33% (3 pts)	Victor Payne Jr. 100% (2 misses)	-
Above-break 3 left	9-31	29.0	27	Raphel Laurent 33% (9 pts)	Victor Payne Jr. 33% (9 pts)	Jhace Johnson 27% (6 misses)	Raphel Laurent 23% (5 misses)
Above-break 3 center	5-16	31.2	15	Ashton Reynolds 40% (6 pts)	Jhace Johnson 40% (6 pts)	Ashton Reynolds 18% (2 misses)	Jayden Mott 18% (2 misses)
Above-break 3 right	14-31	45.2	42	Victor Payne Jr. 36% (15 pts)	Raphel Laurent 29% (12 pts)	Raphel Laurent 29% (5 misses)	Jayden Mott 12% (2 misses)