Central Ark.
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 924 (#377) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1103 (#132) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 956 (#386) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 928 (#586) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -2.4 (#219) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -3.2 (#413) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 1.000 (#34) | - |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.514 (#441) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 1.000 (#30) | NetEff +69.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 1.000 (#20) | AdjNet +68.0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.579 (#356) | AdjNet +2.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 1.000 (#18) | AdjNet +66.9 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.577 (#355) | AdjNet +2.6 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.981 (#30) | AdjO 80.0 | AdjD 36.8 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.524 (#358) | AdjO 63.9 | AdjD 62.8 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.494 (#399) | AdjO 62.9 | AdjD 63.2 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.449 (#423) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.435 (#429) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 895 (#420) | RD 100 | GP 23 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | @ | Crown (MN) | W | 72 - 52 |
| 2025-11-07 | vs | Lyon | W | 115 - 43 |
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Maranatha Baptist | W | 83 - 49 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ | Northwestern-St. Paul | W | 67 - 56 |
| 2025-11-11 | @ | Grinnell | W | 60 - 56 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | UW-River Falls | L | 40 - 61 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | North Central (MN) | W | 75 - 62 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | St. Olaf | L | 63 - 66 |
| 2025-12-01 | vs | Hendrix | W | 74 - 32 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Neb. Wesleyan | W | 73 - 70 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Dubuque | L | 58 - 63 |
| 2025-12-17 | @ | Emmanuel (MA) | L | 45 - 53 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Luther | L | 61 - 79 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Simpson | L | 55 - 70 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Wartburg | L | 43 - 80 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Coe | L | 50 - 74 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | Buena Vista | L | 63 - 70 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Neb. Wesleyan | W | 72 - 43 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Loras | L | 61 - 72 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Dubuque | W | 86 - 75 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savannah Luna | - | 1 | 39.0 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 12.0 | - | - | - | 43.5 | 40.0 | 50.0 | - | 52.3 | 52.2 |
| Cheyanne Kemp | - | 2 | 20.6 | 17.5 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 13.0 | 15.5 | - | - | - | 57.7 | 50.0 | 33.3 | - | 64.1 | 65.4 |
| Claire Hall | - | 1 | 21.0 | 15.0 | 9.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 17.0 | - | - | - | 54.5 | 0 | 75.0 | - | 58.8 | 54.5 |
| Shae Littleford | - | 2 | 16.4 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 15.0 | - | - | - | 57.9 | 40.0 | 66.7 | - | 69.3 | 68.4 |
| HJ Fender | - | 1 | 31.0 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 13.0 | - | - | - | 41.7 | 40.0 | 50.0 | - | 50.9 | 50.0 |
| Bree Stephens | - | 2 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 17.0 | - | - | - | 68.8 | 75.0 | 0 | - | 87.5 | 87.5 |
| Sara Shoemaker | - | 1 | 23.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 10.0 | - | - | - | 55.6 | 50.0 | 0 | - | 72.2 | 72.2 |
| Emily Naughton | - | 17 | 27.0 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 10.3 | 5.4 | -32 | -1.5 | -7.9 | 36.6 | 29.4 | 77.4 | -0.46 | 46.4 | 40.9 |
| CeCe Moore | - | 17 | 22.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 27 | 1.3 | 9.2 | 43.9 | 29.2 | 71.7 | 0.86 | 52.8 | 46.9 |
| Laylah Reese | - | 2 | 16.6 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 8.5 | 5.0 | - | - | - | 41.2 | 25.0 | 0.0 | - | 47.5 | 50.0 |
| Maddie Backer | - | 17 | 24.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | -11 | -0.5 | -2.7 | 45.0 | 29.4 | 78.6 | -1.99 | 55.5 | 51.8 |
| Emerie Bohanon | - | 2 | 16.2 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | - | - | - | 44.4 | 50.0 | 100.0 | - | 69.7 | 61.1 |
| Paris Santacaterina | - | 2 | 19.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 35.7 | 33.3 | 100.0 | - | 50.4 | 46.4 |
| McKenzie Snook | - | 17 | 19.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 13 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 35.4 | 26.4 | 81.8 | 3.22 | 47.4 | 41.6 |
| Jenna Cook | - | 2 | 19.3 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 3 | 1.0 | 39.1 | 36.4 | 14.3 | 100.0 | 0.29 | 50.9 | 40.9 |
| Abbey Bence | - | 17 | 22.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 33.6 | 33.8 | 61.1 | -0.95 | 47.4 | 45.8 |
| Jayla Add New Player | - | 1 | 36.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 15.0 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | - | 51.0 | 40.0 |
| LJ Bellamy | - | 1 | 17.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 40.0 | 0 | - | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Bailey Reding | - | 15 | 17.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 37.3 | 33.3 | 87.1 | -0.97 | 49.0 | 38.8 |
| Kaitlyn Mumm | - | 11 | 21.1 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 4.9 | 5.4 | -66 | -4.4 | -33.9 | 37.0 | 26.1 | 68.8 | 1.06 | 46.7 | 42.6 |
| Jasmyn Williams | - | 16 | 25.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 4.2 | -18 | -0.9 | -4.4 | 34.9 | 15.4 | 65.7 | 2.53 | 42.2 | 36.1 |
| Alexis Cox | - | 2 | 18.1 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 8.0 | - | - | - | 41.7 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 41.7 | 41.7 |
| Jadyn Filling | - | 17 | 17.6 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 17 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 29.5 | 31.3 | 0 | -0.17 | 44.3 | 44.3 |
| Linda Amaning | - | 2 | 16.2 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 5.0 | 7.0 | - | - | - | 40.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | - | 38.3 | 40.0 |
| Julianna Gibson | - | 2 | 14.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 30.8 | 0.0 | 0 | - | 30.8 | 30.8 |
| Kamryn Griffin | - | 2 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | -8 | -0.4 | -4.3 | 33.3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1.3 | 33.3 | 33.3 |
| Nene Owen | - | 1 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 50.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Rachel Darling | - | 1 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0 | 0 | - | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Aubrie Haynes | - | 13 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 36.8 | 0 | 1.19 | 47.9 | 47.9 |
| Carla Ramirez | - | 2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | - | - | - | 25.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | - | 30.7 | 25.0 |
| Ayla Hall | - | 6 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 2.3 | -1 | -0.1 | -5.7 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | -1.02 | 55.6 | 60.0 |
| Lainey Duggan | - | 7 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | -29 | -3.2 | -85.2 | 22.2 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.25 | 30.1 | 22.2 |
| Lydia Smith | - | 2 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -24 | -3.0 | -23.2 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.36 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Hannah Dunkin | - | 5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | -6 | -1.2 | -109.1 | 100.0 | 0 | 50.0 | -0.46 | 86.8 | 100.0 |
| Kailey Coghlan | - | 9 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | -17 | -1.7 | -59.0 | 22.2 | 14.3 | 0.0 | -2.16 | 25.3 | 27.8 |
| Zoe Duggan | - | 5 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.8 | -6 | -1.0 | -109.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | -0.46 | 10.2 | 0.0 |
| Alivia Cox | - | 2 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kaidyn Beckwith | - | 2 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG