Carthage
Model Outputs
2016-2017
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1151 (#72) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1196 (#53) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1095 (#67) | HCA +58 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +13.9 (#39) | HCA +2.4 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +15.1 (#23) | HCA +2.3 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.655 (#118) | - |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.830 (#57) | AdjNet +13.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.832 (#57) | AdjNet +13.9 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.718 (#51) | AdjO 83.0 | AdjD 72.7 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.657 (#62) | AdjO 82.2 | AdjD 75.1 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.761 (#52) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.751 (#51) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1162 (#73) | RD 127 | GP 24 |
| Adjusted Context Blend Adjusted Context Blend Chronologically trained component blend with rest and signed venue context. More → | Legacy estimate | Earlier model estimate; no qualified current forecast. |
2016-2017 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-11-18 | vs | Olivet | W | 103 - 68 |
| 2016-11-20 | vs | Robert Morris-Peoria | W | 80 - 66 |
| 2016-11-22 | vs | UW-River Falls | L | 75 - 81 |
| 2016-11-26 | vs | Northland | W | 79 - 60 |
| 2016-11-29 | vs | Calvin | L | 83 - 88 |
| 2016-12-03 | vs | Millikin | W | 70 - 59 |
| 2016-12-07 | @ | North Central (IL) | W | 85 - 75 |
| 2016-12-10 | @ | Augustana (IL) | L | 70 - 86 |
| 2016-12-19 | @ | Caltech | W | 81 - 58 |
| 2016-12-20 | @ | La Verne | W | 80 - 73 |
| 2016-12-31 | @ | Wis.-Oshkosh | W | 68 - 67 |
| 2017-01-04 | @ | North Park | W | 82 - 76 |
| 2017-01-07 | vs | Elmhurst | W | 75 - 67 |
| 2017-01-10 | vs | Illinois Tech | W | 81 - 79 |
| 2017-01-14 | @ | Ill. Wesleyan | L | 74 - 77 |
| 2017-01-18 | vs | Carroll (WI) | L | 76 - 81 |
| 2017-01-21 | @ | Wheaton (IL) | L | 78 - 85 |
| 2017-01-25 | @ | Carroll (WI) | W | 69 - 60 |
| 2017-01-28 | vs | Augustana (IL) | W | 74 - 70 |
| 2017-02-01 | @ | Elmhurst | W | 93 - 91 |
| 2017-02-08 | vs | North Park | W | 91 - 88 |
| 2017-02-11 | vs | Ill. Wesleyan | L | 78 - 90 |
| 2017-02-15 | vs | North Central (IL) | W | 78 - 74 |
| 2017-02-18 | @ | Millikin | W | 99 - 66 |
| 2017-02-21 | vs | Wheaton (IL) | W | 75 - 73 |
| 2017-02-24 | vs | North Central (IL) | L | 85 - 87 |
2016-2017 Roster
No roster data available for this season.