Carson-Newman
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1193 (#33) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1180 (#49) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1065 (#112) | HCA +75 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +12.5 (#69) | HCA +2.8 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +9.5 (#219) | HCA +3.7 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.874 (#198) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.866 (#155) | NetEff +14.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.915 (#194) | AdjNet +20.6 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.918 (#196) | AdjNet +20.5 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.794 (#172) | AdjO 77.3 | AdjD 62.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.683 (#93) | AdjO 76.9 | AdjD 68.5 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.695 (#181) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.698 (#174) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1124 (#91) | RD 99 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Lander | W | 72 - 59 |
| 2025-11-16 | vs | USC Aiken | L | 54 - 62 |
| 2025-11-21 | vs | Clayton St. | W | 96 - 58 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ | North Georgia | L | 62 - 69 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | North Georgia | W | 82 - 74 |
| 2025-11-29 | vs | Catawba | W | 79 - 75 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ | Coker | L | 56 - 64 |
| 2025-12-13 | vs | Anderson (SC) | W | 91 - 66 |
| 2025-12-17 | vs | UVA Wise | W | 84 - 58 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ | Wingate | W | 65 - 56 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Francis Marion | W | 58 - 54 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Lenoir-Rhyne | L | 92 - 103 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Lincoln Memorial | W | 76 - 58 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Newberry | W | 80 - 68 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | Mars Hill | W | 87 - 63 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ | Catawba | W | 101 - 73 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Tusculum | W | 107 - 80 |
| 2026-01-30 | vs | Coker | W | 87 - 60 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | UVA Wise | L | 70 - 83 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Anderson (SC) | L | 76 - 84 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Sullivan | - | 20 | 29.6 | 18.0 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 15.0 | 7.4 | 121 | 5.5 | 22.3 | 43.0 | 39.5 | 86.3 | -0.52 | 55.8 | 52.7 |
| Emily Gonzalez | - | 20 | 29.1 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 151 | 6.9 | 28.7 | 45.2 | 33.3 | 78.6 | 2.58 | 55.6 | 47.8 |
| Mattie Nuckolls | - | 20 | 27.2 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 159 | 7.2 | 34.8 | 49.0 | 27.3 | 88.7 | 3.97 | 58.6 | 53.6 |
| Caroline Hill | - | 20 | 18.9 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 35 | 1.6 | 9.5 | 40.7 | 34.6 | 69.2 | 1.56 | 51.4 | 50.3 |
| Keeleigh Rogers | - | 20 | 27.5 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 6.4 | 12.6 | 166 | 7.5 | 34.7 | 37.5 | 23.4 | 68.4 | 2.14 | 46.0 | 41.8 |
| Chloe Heath | - | 18 | 19.9 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 47 | 2.4 | 22.5 | 41.9 | 30.2 | 68.2 | -4.65 | 50.6 | 48.1 |
| Karli Haworth | - | 19 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 31 | 1.5 | 11.8 | 34.1 | 33.9 | 69.6 | -2.21 | 48.0 | 44.5 |
| Cybil Penland | - | 20 | 12.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 58 | 2.6 | 20.9 | 38.5 | 28.6 | 62.5 | 2.09 | 43.1 | 41.5 |
| Abigail Johnson | - | 16 | 9.2 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 2.7 | -8 | -0.4 | -9.8 | 48.4 | 0.0 | 80.0 | -0.83 | 53.7 | 48.4 |
| Madelyn Ladd | - | 20 | 11.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 33 | 1.5 | 12.3 | 34.5 | 25.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 40.9 | 40.9 |
| Harmony Sullivan | - | 11 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 13 | 1.0 | 21.3 | 52.6 | 22.2 | 100.0 | -2.45 | 60.4 | 57.9 |
| Kali McMahan | - | 12 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 19 | 1.4 | 34.5 | 63.6 | 66.7 | 100.0 | 1.18 | 78.4 | 72.7 |
| Delaney Weddington | - | 11 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 50.0 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 0.29 | 53.8 | 53.6 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG