Carleton
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 952 (#330) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 909 (#457) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 892 (#621) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | -4.9 (#243) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | -9.4 (#490) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.079 (#645) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.156 (#464) | NetEff -12.7 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.136 (#526) | AdjNet -16.0 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.131 (#520) | AdjNet -16.0 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.279 (#520) | AdjO 55.5 | AdjD 66.0 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.343 (#582) | AdjO 57.7 | AdjD 64.8 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.270 (#550) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.276 (#549) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 884 (#432) | RD 100 | GP 21 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Wis.-Superior | L | 49 - 52 |
| 2025-11-12 | vs | North Central (MN) | W | 83 - 74 |
| 2025-11-15 | vs | Northwestern-St. Paul | W | 61 - 51 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | Bethany Lutheran | L | 70 - 76 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ | Buena Vista | W | 68 - 67 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Saint Mary's (MN) | L | 48 - 64 |
| 2025-12-10 | @ | Macalester | W | 49 - 47 |
| 2025-12-12 | vs | Martin Luther | L | 51 - 72 |
| 2025-12-31 | @ | Wis.-Superior | L | 38 - 70 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Bethel (MN) | L | 55 - 62 |
| 2026-01-14 | @ | Hamline | L | 56 - 63 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Saint Benedict | L | 57 - 70 |
| 2026-01-21 | @ | St. Catherine | W | 64 - 61 |
| 2026-01-24 | vs | St. Scholastica | L | 52 - 65 |
| 2026-01-28 | vs | Saint Mary's (MN) | L | 59 - 71 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Augsburg | W | 74 - 72 |
| 2026-02-04 | @ | Concordia-M'head | L | 42 - 82 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Saint Benedict | L | 61 - 65 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addy Huss | - | 18 | 37.1 | 18.3 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 14.0 | 15.0 | -122 | -5.8 | -23.1 | 46.4 | 32.1 | 78.6 | -0.56 | 55.7 | 50.0 |
| Audrey Whitney | - | 18 | 37.1 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 13.2 | 3.8 | -112 | -5.3 | -21.0 | 35.0 | 23.1 | 75.0 | -0.43 | 42.6 | 37.6 |
| Liesl McCallum | - | 18 | 36.0 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 11.3 | 10.1 | -155 | -7.4 | -29.6 | 42.2 | 37.5 | 62.7 | -1.58 | 46.8 | 42.9 |
| Maggie Winesett | - | 18 | 31.7 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 | -52 | -2.5 | -12.2 | 34.1 | 32.4 | 73.8 | 2.64 | 44.5 | 38.6 |
| Taylor Dente | - | 18 | 19.2 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 0.4 | -90 | -4.3 | -33.7 | 32.9 | 31.7 | 33.3 | -4.53 | 46.3 | 46.4 |
| Charlotte Henry | - | 18 | 21.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | -96 | -4.6 | -28.2 | 30.4 | 25.0 | 72.7 | 1.39 | 43.3 | 39.1 |
| Jasmine Maldonado | - | 13 | 10.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | -0.5 | -38 | -2.4 | -62.6 | 26.7 | 25.0 | 25.0 | -0.62 | 32.8 | 33.3 |
| Liz Hiatt | - | 8 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | -3 | -0.3 | -10.6 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 1.45 | 47.0 | 50.0 |
| Grace Schwarz | - | 14 | 10.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -78 | -4.6 | -76.8 | 23.1 | 18.2 | 0.0 | 0.16 | 27.1 | 30.8 |
| Opal Burruss | - | 1 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG