Capital
Model Outputs
2025-2026
Output is shown as model rating with league rank in parentheses when available.
| Model | Output | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Elo Elo Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates. More → | 1062 (#117) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Bradley-Terry Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter. More → | 1141 (#92) | - |
| Bradley-Terry Recency Bradley-Terry Recency Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | 1112 (#83) | HCA +62 elo |
| Margin Margin Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins. More → | +6.5 (#121) | HCA +2.3 |
| Margin Recency Margin Recency Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games. More → | +3.8 (#300) | HCA +2.9 |
| Pythagorean Pythagorean Pythagorean win expectation from raw points scored and allowed. More → | 0.719 (#356) | - |
| Efficiency Efficiency Tempo-adjusted efficiency version of Pythagorean ratings. More → | 0.522 (#353) | NetEff +0.6 |
| Adjusted Efficiency Adjusted Efficiency Opponent-adjusted efficiency model with separate offensive and defensive components. More → | 0.861 (#233) | AdjNet +15.8 |
| Log Adjusted Log Adjusted Log-scale adjusted efficiency model that downweights blowout leverage. More → | 0.860 (#238) | AdjNet +15.4 |
| Points Off/Def Points Off/Def Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters. More → | 0.699 (#238) | AdjO 68.7 | AdjD 59.5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency Points Off/Def Recency Off/def points regression with exponential recency weights. More → | 0.591 (#242) | AdjO 61.3 | AdjD 57.3 |
| Core Ensemble Core Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and points off/def. More → | 0.651 (#259) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Recency Ensemble Recency Ensemble Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def. More → | 0.655 (#256) | Blend of Elo, BT, Margin, PythLog, PtsOD |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry Dynamic Bradley-Terry Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift. More → | 1178 (#78) | RD 100 | GP 22 |
2026 Schedule & Results
| Date | Vs/At | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | vs | Mt. St. Joseph | W | 54 - 46 |
| 2025-11-11 | vs | Franklin | W | 67 - 62 |
| 2025-11-19 | vs | CWRU | W | 59 - 54 |
| 2025-11-22 | vs | Bethany (WV) | W | 68 - 66 |
| 2025-11-25 | vs | Wooster | W | 61 - 56 |
| 2025-12-01 | @ | Kenyon | W | 70 - 55 |
| 2025-12-03 | @ | Muskingum | W | 57 - 55 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ | Ohio Northern | L | 60 - 68 |
| 2025-12-16 | @ | Ohio Wesleyan | L | 53 - 68 |
| 2025-12-20 | vs | Baldwin Wallace | L | 64 - 74 |
| 2025-12-22 | vs | Wittenberg | L | 55 - 64 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ | Otterbein | L | 54 - 74 |
| 2026-01-14 | vs | Mount Union | L | 50 - 70 |
| 2026-01-17 | vs | Heidelberg | W | 58 - 51 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ | Marietta | W | 85 - 79 |
| 2026-01-28 | @ | Wilmington (OH) | W | 60 - 51 |
| 2026-01-31 | vs | Ohio Northern | W | 59 - 49 |
| 2026-02-04 | vs | Muskingum | W | 72 - 56 |
| 2026-02-07 | @ | Baldwin Wallace | L | 49 - 63 |
2026 Roster
Minutes by Position
The surface stays filled across the five on-court roles. Use the labels or legend to isolate how each player absorbs guard-to-big minutes.
| Player | Pos | GP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | FGA | Numbers | PM | PM/G | PM/40 | FG% | 3P% | FT% | RAPM | TS% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaree Perkins | - | 19 | 37.2 | 20.6 | 12.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 14.7 | 18.9 | 50 | 2.4 | 8.8 | 41.4 | 35.1 | 74.3 | 0.9 | 55.2 | 47.3 |
| Kendall Spreen | - | 19 | 35.6 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 41 | 2.0 | 7.2 | 31.8 | 28.5 | 80.0 | 1.85 | 45.7 | 44.2 |
| Tahirah Ellis | - | 11 | 27.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 9.8 | 7.4 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 31.5 | 29.7 | 75.0 | 1.57 | 39.6 | 36.6 |
| Kya Jordan | - | 19 | 35.5 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 89 | 4.2 | 17.7 | 34.0 | 21.2 | 65.0 | 2.86 | 41.5 | 36.2 |
| Julia Nash | - | 19 | 28.5 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 27 | 1.3 | 5.6 | 30.8 | 29.9 | 69.2 | 1.03 | 42.2 | 40.8 |
| Kyah Ewing | - | 19 | 16.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 56 | 2.7 | 20.2 | 44.4 | 32.0 | 41.2 | -0.18 | 47.8 | 47.9 |
| Izzy Rodriguez | - | 19 | 17.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | -15 | -0.7 | -5.0 | 20.0 | 3.7 | 64.0 | -3.28 | 28.9 | 20.8 |
| Nyla Washington | - | 17 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | -2 | -0.1 | -3.2 | 30.3 | 20.0 | 53.3 | -1.04 | 36.6 | 31.8 |
| Olivia Rouser | - | 8 | 12.7 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 23 | 2.6 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 25.0 | 0 | 1.22 | 29.4 | 29.4 |
| Aleyna Rick | - | 3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -5 | -1.2 | -46.9 | 50.0 | 0 | 0.0 | -0.68 | 34.7 | 50.0 |
| Kayla Wilson | - | 9 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | -185 | -6.4 | -43.0 | 9.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.48 | 8.7 | 9.1 |
| Emma Sorrell | - | 4 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 2 | 0.4 | 18.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jayona Overby | - | 5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kynnade Bates | - | 1 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 |
Numbers/Game vs RAPM
X-axis = Numbers/Game (PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA), Y-axis = RAPM.
Advanced: Numbers = PTS+REB+AST+STL+BLK-TO-FGA, PM = total +/-, PM/G = per game, PM/40 = per 40 minutes, RAPM = Regularized Adj Plus-Minus, TS% = True Shooting, eFG% = Effective FG